The Next Hurrah

Follow-up On Polling About Escalation

by DemFromCT

Hotline On Call makes good points about the CBS and Gallup polls (my bold):

The [polls both show continuing bad news for Pres. Bush on Iraq. Just 26% approve of his handling of the situation in Iraq, according to Gallup, and the same miniscule percentage is confident about his ability to make the right decisions about the war -- including just 19% of independents, per the CBS survey. 47% of respondents say they don't believe the US can achieve its goals in Iraq in the CBS poll, and 55% say sending in a "surge" of troops won't make a difference. Meanwhile, Bush's approval ratings bounce up 2 points to 37% in the Gallup poll, while 59% say Dem House and Senate leaders' policies will move the country in the right direction (compared with just 35% who say the GOP leaders' policies are the right way to go).

More polls will certainly come out within a few days testing a major build-up of troops, and it will be interesting to note how each polling firm decides to word their questions. The differences could make for divergent results [REID WILSON]

Wording is always important, but the idea that Bush is on solid ground in any way, shape or form is so much fantasy and wishful thinking.

The Politics of Escalation

by DemFromCT

There was an interesting line in the NY Times summary of the 'relevant' President leading the nation in war:

Despite Mr. Bush’s insistence that he does not govern by polls, the White House is acutely aware that a vast majority of the American public disapproves of the job Mr. Bush is doing in Iraq. But advisers to the president believe that the public is willing to give Mr. Bush another chance — especially if he puts forth a policy that is heavy on specifics.

The president’s advisers are also mindful of polls showing that while the public wants the situation to improve in Iraq, it does not necessarily favor immediate withdrawal.

“They’re going to cast it as a choice between withdrawal and surge,” said one Republican strategist close to the White House. “The public is not for immediate withdrawal or even a quick withdrawal, but they’re not for the status quo. I think they feel as if the public is more likely to support the president’s position, which is putting a stake in the ground in Iraq and saying were going to try to win.”

But as Gallup clearly shows today, the only part of the American population that is interested in giving Bush another chance is the republican base... and that's so small as to be properly considered a third of the electorate at most:

A new USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted Jan. 5-7, 2007, provides support for this possibility. The poll finds that only 12% opt for a troop increase using the traditional four-alternatives question, little changed from past polling. But the poll included a separate question that summarized a possible "surge" announcement, and found that 36% support the idea of such an increase, while 61% oppose it.

More after the break.

The Military Times Poll

by DemFromCT

Given previous discussion here, I couldn't let this item pass. From Hotline On Call:

Dissention In The Ranks?

A major segment of Pres. Bush's base could be erroding, thanks to the war in Iraq, according to a new and surprising poll. The annual survey by the Military Times shows a dramatic drop in support for the war among, of all people, active-duty service members.

Conducted by mail beginning the week after the midterms, the poll shows just 35% of service members approve of Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq, down from 63% in the '04 poll and 54% last year. 42% currently disapprove, marking '06 as the first time more troops have disapproved than approved. Bush's general job approval is slightly higher, at 52% approve to 31% disapprove. That's still 19 points lower than the '04 survey, which had Bush with 71% approval.

Success, say service members, is still likely -- though just 50% say so. 41% say the US is not very or not at all likely to succeed. Only 41% say the US should have gone to war at all, while 37% say the US shouldn't have.

The poll generated a lot of buzz in the lefty blogosphere. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas highlights the pollsters description of the sample: "the survey's respondents are on average older, more experienced, more likely to be officers and more career-oriented than the overall military population." Kos comments: "In other words, we're talking about the most conservative segment of the military. These are lifers. (The enlisted ranks are far more liberal, drawn mostly from poor African American, Latino, and Anglo demographics, though also young thus politically disengaged.)"

Whether that's so, or not, there's more to supporting the troops than sticking another ribbon on the SUV.

Iraq, Iraq Iraq

by DemFromCT

Leadership fights for the #2 position are inside baseball. This is what Americans care about. From Gallup:

The situation in Iraq continues to be the top issue mentioned by Americans when asked to name the most important problem facing the country right now. More than a third of Americans name Iraq as the top problem, and is now, by one point, at the highest level seen on this measure since the focus on Iraq began four years ago. Other problems facing the nation as mentioned by Americans include the general state of the economy, healthcare, government dissatisfaction and corruption, immigration, and terrorism. Americans' overall satisfaction with the state of the nation remains quite low, with only 31% of Americans saying they are satisfied.

The Nov. 9-12, 2006 poll asked Americans to name, in their own words, the "most important problem facing this country today," repeating a long-standing Gallup trend question updated monthly. The war in Iraq ranks at the top of the list, with 36% of Americans mentioning this as the nation's most salient problem. The situation in Iraq has been at the top of the list each month since March 2004, at which time the economy and unemployment were greater public concerns. But, the percentage of Americans mentioning Iraq as the most important problem is up this month from 28% in early October -- and is now among the highest levels Gallup has ever measured.

What difference does a draft make? Plenty. Gallup goes on to compare other wars.

It is important to note, however, that the current 36% is not significantly different than the 35% measured in February 2003, about a month prior to the start of the war. During previous military conflicts, the percentage of Americans mentioning a specific war, or war in general, has been much higher -- for instance, it was 56% during the Korean War in September 1951 and 62% during the Vietnam War in January 1967.

On the other hand,

No more than 10% of Americans mention any other issue as the most important problem facing the country in the latest survey.

We need to get moving, and we need to do it soon. Whatever the ISG has to say, get it on the table and then let's have hearings (like yesterday) and a real debate. Lives are literally at stake..

Elections Have Consequences

by DemFromCT

This from Gallup:

Democrats Have Upper Hand for the Moment

Majority want Democrats rather than Bush to have the most influence

A new USA Today/Gallup poll reflects very positive positioning for the Democrats in the minds of the American public -- at least for the moment. Americans are almost twice as likely to have a favorable opinion of Democrats as they do of Republicans, and a strong majority says they want the Democrats in Congress to have more influence over the direction of the country than President Bush.

Additionally, Bush's job approval rating, now at 33%, is just two points away from being the lowest of his administration.

Who Should Control?

Data from the weekend USA Today/Gallup poll ratified the basic results of the election: Americans want Democrats to be in control.

Asked who they want to have more influence over the direction the nation takes in the next year, Americans by a two to one margin said the Democrats in Congress rather than Bush.

While we debate the nuances of the exit polls and this group of voters, or that candidate's positioning ofr 2008, let's not miss the forest for the trees. Elections have consequences, and this election puts enormous pressure on the Bush WH that even the media can't gloss over. Suddenly Democrats have a platform, and that means they have a voice.

Bush Faces New Calls to Shift Policies On Mideast

New Pressure as President Meets With Iraq Study Group

President Bush came under new pressure yesterday at home and abroad to alter his policies in the Middle East. British Prime Minister Tony Blair pushed for a broader Arab-Israeli peace initiative to help stabilize Iraq, while the incoming chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee pledged to take a hard line on seeking early troop withdrawals.

Bush offered little indication that he is planning to adjust his approach, telling reporters gathered in the Oval Office that "the best military options depend upon the conditions on the ground" in Iraq. The president also met for more than an hour with former secretary of state James A. Baker III, former representative Lee H. Hamilton (D-Ind.) and other members of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, which is looking to chart a new course in the war.

Stories like that don't happen in a vacuum. We're a week out, and while Bush remains President and C-in-C, the terrain has shifted both in DC and in the media. All of a sudden there's new ideas and new directions on the table. Whether they're obvious or brilliant or unworkable, the election is already beginning to pay dividends. Making the most of it is the next set of tasks, and knowing when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em remains an art form. Nonetheless, for the moment, the public wants Democrats to do what they're doing, and there's no harm in letting Republicans know that about, say, every hour.

The Next Open Thread: Post Election Polls

by DemFromCT

Poll: Bush's 'approval' rating lowest since May

The first post-Election Day USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows President Bush's "approval" rating at 33%. That's down from 38% a week earlier and is the lowest it's been since May 8-11, when it also stood at 33%. On the flip side of that question, 62% of those surveyed said they disapprove of the job President Bush is doing -- up from 56% a week earlier and the highest it's been since a 65% reading in May. Just released this hour, the results are from a poll taken Friday-Sunday.

The national telephone survey of 1,004 adults has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. More results will be available in Tuesday's editions of USA TODAY.

That 33% joins the Newsweek poll (31%). Others will follow. America is now allowed to say what they really think.

 

Newsweek Poll: Bush is at 31% , An all-Time Low

by DemFromCT

As reported on MSNBC (link), a new Newsweek poll puts Bush at 31%. There's something about losing a referendum, and screwing your own party by lying about Rumsfeld's future, that saps your popularity. 32% think Bush will continue to be effective, and at least 60% think he'll be a lame duck. IIRC, only the Harris poll has ever had Bush that low.

 

President Bush's job approval rating has fallen to just 31 percent, according to the new NEWSWEEK Poll. Bill Clinton's lowest rating during his presidency was 36 percent; Bush's father's was 29 percent, and Ronald Reagan's was 35 percent. Jimmy Carter's and Richard Nixon's lows were 28 and 23 percent, respectively. (Just 24 approve of outgoing Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's job performance; and 31 percent approve of Vice President Dick Cheney's.)

Worst of all, most Americans are writing off the rest of Bush's presidency; two-thirds (66 percent) believe he will be unable to get much done, up from 56 percent in a mid-October poll; only 32 percent believe he can be effective. That's unfortunate since 63 percent of Americans say they're dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country; just 29 percent are satisfied, reports the poll of 1,006 adults conducted Thursday and Friday nights.

A plurality of respondents don't have an opinion about Speaker-elect-to-be Pelosi, but thise who do have a more favorable than unfavorable opinion. Demonizing her has failed up to now  (but attempts haven't stopped).

What about a mandate?

The Lay Of The Land: The Aggregate Polls, And The Voter Who Shows

by DemFromCT

Andy Kohut of The Pew Research Center was interviewed on NPR about the recent Pew Poll. He noted that while the voter sentiment hasn't changed, what has changed is Republicans are more energized than they were. The poll was adjusted to reflect that, and there we have the explanation for the poll tightening. Subgroups who have a Dem lead (but not as much as before) include women and independents. The slew of polls we covered yesterday looked at those subgruops as well.

The WSJ has a free article this am looking that the all-important swing voter.

The 2006 midterm elections could go down in the books as the year that Karl Rove's strategy of energizing the Republican base reached its limits, and Iraq opened the door for Democrats to court disaffected independent voters.

As voters head to the polls tomorrow, Republicans still hope to hold on to power in Congress by mobilizing conservative supporters and using negative ads to taint Democrats and suppress their turnout. But this time, with Democrats making a strong bid for at least the House, the outcome could rest more on voters who aren't hard-core party loyalists.

"There are some elections where the fear of the status quo is greater than the fear of change," says Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster. "This is one of those elections."

How much change could depend on how voters -- particularly independents -- resolve these questions: How much has Iraq trumped the larger war against terror, which two years ago was the president's great link to swing voters? How effectively have Republicans used a tough-on-immigration and antitax posture to counter the erosion of support for the war? How unshakable is the economic pessimism in the Midwest? And what is the lasting impact of political scandals, topped by former Rep. Mark Foley's sexual approaches to former teenage pages?

The Next Open Thread: Evangelical Edition

by DemFromCT

New polls from ABC/WaPo (weird internals, with more R than D voters) and TIME have some interesting landscape findings. The TIME poll is most interesting for the evangelical content.

Another challenge facing the GOP is a stark dropoff in support among what is usually a core constituency: white evangelical Christians. According to TIME's poll, only 54% of people in this group favor Republican candidates, with 5% undecided. Thirty-eight percent of white evangelicals polled say they'll support Democrats. In 2004, exit polls indicated that 78% of this constituency voted for Bush. While the GOP won out in the poll by seven points (42-35) as the party perceived as best equipped to protect moral values, a matter especially important to this group, the party's standing among evangelicals may have been hurt by recent Congressional scandals, which have tarnished the GOP especially. Forty one percent of registered voters said Congressional scandals were extremely or very important as voting issues this campaign.

Amy Sullivan made the point on the Chris Matthews show that the evangelical vote is fixed already, but the Haggard incident has repercussions for 2008. They are more likely to go for purity (Brownback) than pragmatism.

Your thoughts? And here's a recent Pew poll for discussion.

"They Can't Handle The Big Ones"

That's a line heard on MSNBC in relation to Katrina and Iraq, and referring to the Bush WH. The problem for the GOP, come Tuesday, is that's how the country sees them. And the result?

Republicans entered the campaign's final weekend yesterday desperately trying to keep control of the Senate, with three or four tossup races likely to determine whether the GOP can cling to power there even as it sees its hold on the House eroding.

Strong public opposition to the Iraq war continues to hurt Republicans in many key races, but the Bush administration struck a defiant tone, signaling that the election results will not influence its strategy. Tuesday's balloting might influence Congress, Vice President Cheney said in an interview with ABC News, "but the president's made clear what his objective is. It's victory in Iraq. And it's full speed ahead on that basis. And that's exactly what we're going to do."