The Next Hurrah

Chernobyl, beyond the numbers

by Plutonium Page

"It was like airplane pilots experimenting with the engines in flight..."
             -- Valeri Legaslov, Soviet Chernobyl accident investigator

"Without Father"
              -- a 1986 painting about the Chernobyl disaster, by Lyudmila Koulichenko, age 12

"We did not yet possess a system of imagination, analogies, words or experiences for the catastrophe of Chernobyl."
                --  Svetlana Alexiyevich, writer from Belarus

On 26 April, 1986, the worst commercial nuclear accident in history occurred during a test at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which lies near the Belarus-Ukraine border, 100 km north of Kiev, Ukraine.  At 1:23:58 am local time, the plant's Unit 4 reactor was rocked by a steam explosion, followed by a hydrogen explosion and a fire resulting in temperatures over 2,000°C.  The 1,000 ton reactor lid was blown off the core, the nuclear fuel rods melted, and more than 100 times the radiation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined was released into the atmosphere over the 10 days that the fire burned.

Many of the small towns and villages close to Chernobyl were rendered uninhabitable, and radioactive fallout from the accident was detected all over Europe.  On that day, the lives of over 130,000 people evacuees from the 30 km radius "exclusion zone" (left, click to enlarge) were changed in a way that is difficult, if not impossible, for most of us to imagine.

Most of the recent media discussion of the Chernobyl catastrophe has focused on the controversy about the number of people who have died - and will die - as a result of the accident.  In other words, the media has largely failed to see the people behind the statistics.  The purpose of this post is not to discuss the numbers, but to put a human face on the legacy of that day in April 1986.

This post is dedicated to those who died, and those who are still with us today. 

(A note to the nerds out there:  for brevity, I am not going into extreme technical detail about the disaster.  However, if you're interested, this article [pdf] is excellent.)

New nukes in your own backyard?

by Plutonium Page

As many of you probably know, 61 years ago, the first nuclear weapon was tested at the Trinity Site in southern New Mexico, at what was to become part of White Sands Missile Range.  New Mexico is my home state, and my husband and I are currently visiting my parents in Albuquerque.

Right now, I'm sitting in front of our hotel room window.  If I look to the southeast, I can see the Manzano mountains, shrouded in a smokey haze from a forest fire up north.  They look barren and dry, but they used to harbor a dark, malignant force that could literally destroy the world thousands of times over.

Until 1992, Manzano Base, which is east of Kirtland Air Force Base, was one of the main storage facilities for the US nuclear stockpile.  The weapons that weren't dismantled were moved to an underground storage facility on Kirtland AFB;  as home to nearly 3,000 nuclear warheads, New Mexico has the dubious distinction of hosting the largest US nuclear weapon storage facility in the world.

Many of these weapons are quite old;  the "youngest" one was built in 1989, toward the end of the Cold War.  Last year, based upon weapons experts' arguments regarding the unreliability of the old warheads, the Bush administration started up the "reliable replacement warhead" (RRW) program.  In this program, aging nuclear weapons would be replaced by more "reliable" ones, drawing the criticism that it is a "backdoor" way to make new nuclear weapons.

It turns out that the Bush administration's RRW program is only the tip of the nuclear weapons iceberg.  While everyone has been focusing on Iran's nuclear program, a story reported by the LA Times flew way under the radar:

The Bush administration Wednesday [April 5, 2006] unveiled a blueprint for rebuilding the nation's decrepit nuclear weapons complex, including restoration of a large-scale bomb manufacturing capacity.

The plan calls for the most sweeping realignment and modernization of the nation's massive system of laboratories and factories for nuclear bombs since the end of the Cold War.

Until now, the nation has depended on carefully maintaining aging bombs produced during the Cold War arms race, some several decades old. The administration, however, wants the capability to turn out 125 new nuclear bombs per year by 2022, as the Pentagon retires older bombs that it says will no longer be reliable or safe.

[Bold emphasis mine.]

For those of us who remember the Cold War days, this will be déjà vu all over again.  For those of you who didn't grow up in the 1980s, you're about to get a taste of the Reagan administration, only dumber.

Continued below the fold...

Lying liars: ExxonMobil tries to polish its image

by Plutonium Page

There are some people you just can't believe, no matter what, because they can't stop lying:

The reason I keep insisting that there was a relationship between Iraq and Saddam and al Qaeda, because there was a relationship between Iraq and al Qaeda.

-- George W. Bush, June 17, 2004

Liars like to hang out with other liars, which is why Bush and  ExxonMobil are such good pals.  And, just like Bush, since ExxonMobil can't stop lying, and lying, and lying, you can't believe anything they say.

ExxonMobil's latest farce is to try to polish their image and shore up credibility with environmentalists.  Unbelievably, they think that changing their leadership from an unpleasant jackass to a slick, smiling, oily jackass will somehow convince people they've turned over a new leaf.

The New York Times reports:

If Rex W. Tillerson has his way, ExxonMobil will no longer be the oil company that environmentalists love to hate.

Since taking over as Exxon's chairman three months ago from Lee R. Raymond, his abrasive predecessor who dismissed fears of global warming and branded environmental activists "extremists," Mr. Tillerson has gone out of his way to soften Exxon's public stance on climate change.

"We recognize that climate change is a serious issue," Mr. Tillerson said during a 50-minute interview last week, pointing to a recent company report that acknowledged the link between the consumption of fossil fuels and rising global temperatures. "We recognize that greenhouse gas emissions are one of the factors affecting climate change."

[Emphasis mine.]

Wha...?  Does this mean that Exxon astroturf groups will have to re-write all their anti-climate change position papers?

No, wait!  Relax, folks!  Nothing has changed (except the climate). 

Thank You For a Great First Year

By DHinMI

We just passed a milestone at The Next Hurrah, and we almost missed it. Yesterday I noticed it had been exactly one year since Kagro X posted “David Corn Stands the First Amendment on its Head,” our first substantive post.  In the year since, we've had plenty of good pieces, some even audacious in their ambition and desired effect. For instance, Meteor Blades garnered tremendous attention for his proposal to rebuild an Eco New Orleans. DemFromCT has pushed Bird Flu into the consciousness of so many people that he's become a recognized expert and a founder of the Flu Wiki, where experts from the WHO and other entities exchange news and ideas to track this potentially pandemic-generating virus.  And Plutonium Page has repeatedly demonstrated the evidence for and implications of global warming. 

But we've also had our eyes on American politics.  RonK broke the story that Dick Gephardt now regrets his support of Bush's Iraq policy, a mea culpa that was quickly echoed by several other Democrats, including John Kerry and John Edwards. Before just about anyone in the MSM was writing about it, Trapper John was describing the deep rifts in organized labor that resulted in several major unions splitting from the AFL-CIO.  Mimikatz has examined the effects of tax and budgetary policy and ruminated on political ethics and responsibility. 

Two of our contributors so dominated blog reportage and analysis of major stories that we had to create new categories for them.  Kagro X showed that process could be both fun and deadly serious in his pieces on the Nuclear Option, and now he's examining the justifications for and procedures to generate impeachment proceedings against the Bush administration.  And with an assist by the Bush administration (for providing her so much raw material), emptywheel's pieces required us to add a new category for Bush/Administration Scandals. 

And finally, we have what I believe is the best piece written at The Next Hurrah, James' post on the death and legacy of Ismail Merchant, and how the media still doesn't know how to talk about couples who've shared a life of love and devotion with partners of the same sex. 

Now, on the year anniversary of our founding, we're adding a new contributor, emptypockets, who among other subjects will be tracking the days of our president in his series BushWatch. 

But without our readers, none of us would have continued posting here.  So, thank you all for reading our stuffr, thank you for commenting and sharing your thoughts and impressions, and thank you for becoming our friends. 

Gonzales: al Qaida terrorist threats trump the Cold War nuclear threat

by Plutonium Page

Who here grew up during the Cold War?  I remember being about 10-11 years old and watching a documentary on thermonuclear weapons.  They had still photos of one of the thermonuclear bomb tests in the South Pacific - I'm not certain, but it might have been one of the Operation Ivy tests.  Stuff like this photo, and this one (warning: large photos), with full description of what "fallout" was, etc..  I didn't sleep well for about a week after that;  it didn't help that I lived in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and knew there were thousands (yes, thousands) of nuclear warheads stashed all over the state, including right outside of Albuquerque.

Putting it mildly, many of us felt that the Cold War years were, as the rotten.com entry puts it, "...The scariest fucking period in the history of the world..." (check out the entry, it's quite good).  From a non-emotional standpoint, that sentiment is expressed in numbers by The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists'  "Doomsday Clock", which expresses the nuclear global security situation in terms of minutes until midnight.  You can read a short history of the clock here (pdf);  click here for a timeline.  Its "highest points" (reflecting greatest threat) were at 1953 and 1984, when it was at two minutes and three minutes to midnight, respectively.

Now, what does all of that have to do with FISA and NSA surveillance?  Well, the birth of FISA is explained quite well in this excerpt from James Bamford's book The Puzzle Palace, about the NSA.  Obviously, the NSA could monitor foreign Soviet communications, and could monitor domestic (i.e. within the US) communications of anyone suspected of being an "agent of a foreign power" (conceivably, a Soviet spy).  The request for such surveillance had to work its way through multiple steps before it was approved, in order to prevent warrantless surveillance of US citizens.

In other words, back during the Cold War days after FISA was signed into law in 1978, Americans were (conceivably) protected from unauthorized wiretapping by the NSA.  The NSA could go about its business of keeping tabs on the Soviets, both suspected spies in the US, and Soviet communications abroad.

Ok, that's enough of the history lesson.  What does all of this have to do with yesterday's Senate Judiciary Committee questioning of Alberto Gonzales?

Well, according to Gonzales, way back when FISA was signed, "things were different", and of course you had to go through all of those pesky channels to authorize wiretapping.  Because, of course, today's terrorism threat is so much greater than the threat to national security posted by the US and the USSR pointing a combined total of about 50,000 nuclear warheads at each other (approximately equal numbers on either side).

The climate crisis, and a superpower-sized obstacle

by Plutonium Page

If polar bears could talk:

Polar bear 1:  Hey, I was just thinking about last summer.  I could swear that there was less ice than the summer before.

Polar bear 2:  It's not just you.  There is less ice.  And there wasn't enough food!  You know me:  I'm usually pretty laid back, but I'm really scared.  What's going to happen?

Polar bear 1:  I don't know.  I'm scared too.  But you know what?  I know why the ice is melting.  And there are some humans who want to help... and some who don't give a damn.  Let me tell you about a big meeting in Montreal, where science, reason, and diplomacy are blocked at every turn by the Bush administration's pet delegates.

So, what is this "big meeting"?  Today is the last day of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Montreal.  It is a historical conference because it is the very first meeting of the countries who have ratified the Kyoto Protocol; one goal of the conference is to discuss the extension of the Kyoto Protocol.

So, how did the conference go?  There was definite progress made, but not without difficulty, and that's the subject of this post.  Here are a couple of quotes to sum up the conference:

"When you walk around the conference hall here, delegates are saying there are lots of issues on the agenda, but there's only one real problem, and that's the United States," said Bill Hare of Greenpeace International. (AP via CNN)

And:

"Climate change is a global challenge that demands a global response. Yet there are nations that resist, voices that attempt to diminish the urgency or dismiss the science, or declare, either in word or indifference, that this is not our problem to solve. Well, let me tell you, it is our problem to solve... To the reticent nations, including the United States, I say this: There is such a thing as a global conscience." (Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin, quoted in the LA Times.)

Regardless of Martin's own tarnished environmental record, his statement truly sums up the problem at the conference, as does Bill Hare's:  the US delegates were one big stumbling block.

One of them is an anti-science, oil lobby-connected, Bush donating creature named Harlan Watson.

Secret prisons, the EU, and a very strong warning

by Plutonium Page

Little by little, over the last year or so, we've begun to learn the extent of the Bush administration's War on Terror^TM as waged by the CIA.  I'm not referring to something they'd put on their website.  I'm talking about "extraordinary rendition", the practice of transferring terrorism suspects to interrogation camps, often in countries where torture is legal.

Recently, the extent of the CIA's rendition program has become clearer, as a number of European countries have reported that they suspect the CIA has been using their airports - without permission - for their rendition flights (click here for a summary as well as a descriptive EU map, pdf).

Three European countries (Spain, Germany, and Italy) have been discussing challenging the CIA's use of their airports;  also, the Council of Europe, as well as the EU parliament have been discussing launching an investigation into reports of CIA interrogation centers in Europe.

Well, things came to a head today with an announcement from the EU Justice Commissioner:

The European Union's top justice official has warned that any EU state found to have hosted a secret CIA jail could have its voting rights suspended.

Franco Frattini said the consequences would be "extremely serious" if reports of such prisons turned out to be true.

This comes amid an EU investigation into claims the US secret service ran clandestine jails in eastern Europe.

The US has refused to confirm or deny the reports, which surfaced in the US earlier this month.

He said a suspension of voting rights would be justified if any country is found to have breached the bloc's founding principles of human rights, democracy and the rule of law.

As the article says, the move would be unprecedented.  Also, it would be difficult to achieve, because the other 25 EU member states have to vote unanimously to suspend the voting rights of one state.

Something Stupid This Way Comes, Or How Conservatives Hate Science

by Plutonium Page

Newsflash from Pennsylvania!  I'm talking about intelligent design fiction masquerading as science, for the edification and edumacation of them youngsters, in the Kitzmiller v. Dover trial, where the defense has called in its lead "expert" witness:

Charles Darwin's theory of evolution came under sustained attack in federal court here [Harrisburg, PA]  Monday as biochemistry professor Michael J. Behe argued that the theory fails to account for the complex biological machinery that scientists find in the corners of the human cell.

 

Behe, who teaches at Lehigh University, is one of the intellectual founding fathers of "intelligent design," which holds that aspects of life are so complex as to be best explained as the work of a super-intelligent designer.

"The appearance of design in aspects of biology is overwhelming," Behe told the court. "Intelligent design is based on observed, empirical, physical evidence from nature."

I'm sorry, but what the hell are you talking about, Professor?  I thought I signed up for a science course, not story hour.  Calling you to testify as an "expert" in the life sciences is like calling a CSI fan to testify in a murder case.

Ahem, pardon me.  I apologize for the digression.  Shall we return to the subject at hand?  The Washington Post article outlines the background of the case:

Behe is the lead defense witness in a trial that has drawn national attention since it began three weeks ago. Last year, the school board in Dover, Pa. -- a small town south of Harrisburg -- voted to require high school biology teachers to read to students four paragraphs that cast doubt on Darwin's theory of evolution and say that intelligent design offers an alternative theory for the origin and development of life.

 

Eleven parents sued to block the school board's action. The parents' lawyers, along with prominent scientists and philosophers, have argued that intelligent design is biblical creationism draped in new clothing. They note that the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled -- most recently in 1987 -- that religion-tinged scientific theories have no place in public schools.

More below the fold.

Iraq's missing WMD scientists: the post-invasion "brain drain" and weapons proliferation

by Plutonium Page

In December 2002, Iraq provided the UN with a list of 500 of their weapons scientists. These were scientists from Saddam's former chemical, biological and (fledgling) nuclear weapons programs. None of the programs were active in 2002, but the scientists remained. Congress recognized that they were a potential source of intelligence; on March 21, 2003, the Senate unanimously passed the Iraqi Scientists Immigration Act, which gave amnesty to Iraqi WMD scientists in exchange for information.

However, thanks to Bush's impatience, all hell had already broken loose in Iraq, and any remaining WMD scientists were in "fear [of] being taken prisoner by US forces, retaliation by Saddam loyalists, or kidnap and ransom to coalition authorities." (Nature, 22 May 2003, subscription only.)

So, the Iraq Survey Group's investigation into Iraq's (nonexistent) WMDs continued. On October 2, 2003, Dr. David Kay gave a statement before the House and Senate Intelligence Committees. He ended his testimony with a blunt warning:

Second, we have found people, technical information and illicit procurement networks that if allowed to flow to other countries and regions could accelerate global proliferation. Even in the area of actual weapons there is no doubt that Iraq had at one time chemical and biological weapons. Even if there were only a remote possibility that these pre-1991 weapons still exist, we have an obligation to American troops who are now there and the Iraqi population to ensure that none of these remain to be used against them in the ongoing insurgency activity.

This warning wasn't lost on certain members of Congress, who, in December 2003, drafted a letter to then-National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice regarding Iraqi weapons scientists:

We are writing to call your attention to what we believe has been a serious and dangerous oversight in the Administration's planning for Operation Iraqi Freedom and the post-war period. Although hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent in searching for weapons of mass destruction, we understand that the Administration has only recently begun contemplating efforts to keep Iraq's weapons scientists - who may be the only extant element of an Iraqi unconventional weapons program - from putting their knowledge to use elsewhere.

So where are the scientists? Some have been assassinated; some may have gone into hiding. Some are in U.S. custody. And many are still missing.

Open thread, fireworks edition

No, they're not for a belated Fourth of July or Bastille Day celebration, they're for Hunter S. Thompson's "last hurrah":

Hunter S. Thompson has been granted his final wish and will go out with a bang.

A very big bang.

On Saturday, the self-styled king of gonzo journalism will have a final send-off when his ashes will be dispersed in a fireworks display above his estate in Woody Creek, Colo.

And Zambelli Fireworks Internationale, based in New Castle, has been tapped to be the late author's pyrotechnic pallbearers.

"We have never had a request such as this one in our company's history," said Marcy Zambelli, chief executive officer of Zambelli Fireworks. "But we respect the request of the family and have actually custom engineered an aerial shell specifically designed to carry out his final wish."

And the finale to the "beautiful party" (his wife's words)? Mr. Thomson's ashes will be blasted from a 150-ft. tall monument at his home, in a series of shells.

One hell of a memorial for one very interesting guy.

So, here's your open thread. What's on your mind today?