My Guesses on Why Rove Resigned

by emptywheel

By now you've heard the news: Rove is stepping down. So here's my treatment of possible reasons why he's leaving, in reverse order of their likelihood:

Time with the Family

As he said to the WSJ, he wants to spend more time with this family. Of course, this is a load of horse puckey--if he had wanted to spend time with his family, he surely would have done it before his son went to college.

Republicans Think He's a Loser

The Republicans have finally realized he's a loser. Mahablog links to a well-timed Atlantic article that lays out Rove's failures:

• Social Security
• Faith-based wingnut welfare
• Katrina
• The 2006 elections

It is quite likely that Republicans have finally realized that if you want support from voters, you need to actually deliver on policies, not just promise to. But to change the previous "create our own reality" approach to governance, you'd have to get rid of Rove, because that's all Rove does. With one exception.

Republicans Think He's a Loser, Nativist Edition

I said there was one exception to the rule that Rove simply "creates his own reality" and makes policy promises without delivering on those promises. The exception was supposed to be Latino voters. That is, Rove really did want to court the Latino vote, rather than just claiming Republicans had Latino support. The reason is obvious: if Republicans don't get Latino voters, they're sunk.

Of course, this conflicts (and has, in noticeable ways) with the nativist instincts of the base of the Republican party. About the only thing, at this point, that could mobilize the Republican base (and save some Congressional seats, if not the White House) is to give in to these nativist instincts, and start attacking brown people with gusto. But I doubt Rove would stick around for that--he knows the numbers too well. So it's possible that Rove is out so the Republicans can turn into the full-fledged racist party they've always been.

Update: Athenae goes to Freepi-land, so I (and you) don't have to. And sure enough, they're thrilled to see Rove and his Latino-friendly ways gone.

The Sheriff Is Coming

Several times in the WSJ coverage of Rove's resignation, it notes that, Rove was thinking of leaving a year ago:

"I just think it's time," he says, adding that he first floated the idea of leaving to Mr. Bush a year ago. His friends confirm he had been talking about it with others even earlier.

Of course, it wasn't exactly a year ago. It was more like 15 months ago, when it looked likely that Rove would be indicted in the Plame investigation. So it's quite possible that Rove is leaving just three steps ahead of one of the many sheriffs that have him in their sites sights. These include:

The Abramoff Investigation

We know Rove is tied in with everyone tied in with the Abramoff inevstigattion. We know that Susan Ralston, Rove's Assistant was closely involved--and it appears that she has been refused immunity, even though some of her testimony about Abramoff appears to be quite interesting. Novak, at least, thinks Ralston would get to Rove. So it's possible that Rove is one of the ultimate targets of the Abramoff investigation.

The OSC Investigation

This is easy. We know Rove is a target of the OSC investigation into the politicization of anything and everything in the entire government. We know he did, in fact, politicize anything and everything. The ultimate outcome of an OSC investigation would consist of Scott Bloch explaining that Rove did politicize anything and everything and recommending that Bush should fire him, but then to have Bush sit on that recommendation as he has with Lurita Doan. But perhaps Rove is leaving anyway, in an attempt to prevent us all from learning how closely our government resembles that of a one-party state, like maybe the old Soviet Union.

The Iglesias Investigation

But I'm most interested in the possibility that Rove is rushing out just two steps ahead of the Iglesias investigation. HJC is collecting a great deal of evidence that DOJ employees covered up the real reasons for the Iglesias firing ... and that the real reason for the firing had everything to do with politicizing the judiciary. It not only has evidence that Will Moschella, Paul McNulty, and Alberto Gonzales lied about the reasons for Iglesias' firing, it appears that Moschella, at least, is getting downright cooperative (and note, McNulty is going to be out of DOJ at almost the same time as Rove will be out of the WH). 

If this is the reason Rove is quitting, it's not just that BushCo wants him out before he's officially indicted. After all, it's not just Rove--but Bush, too--who was involved in firing Iglesias. So Rove may be leaving as part of a firewall approach in an attempt to save Bush. If it comes to it, Rove may admit to having Iglesias fired in an attempt to politicize the entire judiciary to hide the fact that--in this specific case, at least--Bush but was involved in that process, too. [Aw jeebus, how many of you had to tell me about that last typo before I could find it??]

Comments

[radiofreewill]

USNA at 16:57

Everything you ever wanted to know - very well written - about the Seligman Affair:

http://harpers.org/subjects/DonSiegelman/SubjectOf/BlogEntry

[annex]

what does it mean to "resign" anyway? he can keep on doing what he's been doing, being bush's "best friend". also, since there are some amusing posts here, let me remind you of the passage from the profile of rove that appeared in the new yorker a few years ago...it jumped off the page at me, and i found it on the web...decades after meeting bush for the first time, rove reminisces fondly about bush's rear end and his awesome charisma.
but they're not gay, don't you know...

"[Rove, recalling his first meeting with George W. Bush, said] I can literally remember what he [Bush] was wearing: an Air National Guard flight jacket, cowboy boots, bulletins, complete with the--in Texas you see it a lot--one of the back pockets will have a circle worn in the pocket from where you carry your tin of snuff, your tin of tobacco. He was exuding more charisma than any one individual should be allowed to have."

maybe it's just that the thrill is gone.

and by the way, rove's wife looks just like him!

[Midwest Meg]

I'm with everyone else. Leaving makes Rove more vulnerable to investigations. I think it's a gay sex scandal---it's the only thing that shamese these people. I mean, mass death, lying the country into war, torture, dead people floating in the water, looting the treasury----none of that bothers the Repubs a bit. But gay sex!!!!! Ohmygod!

And the beauty of the gay sex scandal is that it doesn't preclude Rove also going down on all the multiple counts that are far more substantial!

[endofworld]

"If it comes to it, Rove may admit to having Iglesias fired in an attempt to politicize the entire judiciary to hide the fact that--in this specific case, at least--"but" was involved in that process, too."
Should not it read "Bush" instead of "but".

[AnotherDemocraticVeteran]

chrisc wrote: "... - I think it's almost certainly because someone's breathing down his neck."

You mean Jeff Gannon?

[andy phx]

Maybe he's got his eencie weencie tiny nubbin of a baby penis tangled up in the DC Madam scandal. With a man of course.

[HarlandSanders]

Interesting to read all the conspiracy-ish theories but I think I agree with Space a few posts back -- Rove's just a rat leaving a sinking ship. I don't think Cheney fired him -- I could even believe Bush would side with Rove before Cheney. Rove most certainly did not quit because he didn't have the stomach for something about to happen, this sounds absurd. And I find it hard to believe the Dems have the muscle (big enough majority) or will to really legally pursue anyone -- if they haven't been able to force that clown Gonzales to retire yet, they certainly won't be able to corner Rove. The whole sex scandal idea seems unlikely too -- how would resigning a few weeks in advance of the story hitting provide any insulation for Bush? Unless Flynt or whoever agreed to keep quiet on the condition that Rove resigned but what would be the motivation? Last, Rove should be able to still do pretty much what he does whether he is in DC or not.

[sj]

I think its the Larry Flynt factor. I remember discussing what on earth could possibly "surprise" Larry Flynt. I think Rove is about to be outted as on the DC Madams list of clients. The suprise for Larry is that (in this case anyway) that it was with a woman. I think Larry was expecting Rove's homosexual activity to bring him down. That he (also) sleeps with women would be rather suprising for Larry with his "inside" knowledge.

However, there is the Gannon/Guckert factor after all. Larry is threatening to out another cast of characters and he has that million up for the taking. I also notice that Gannon/Guckert has a book apparently coming out soon that he is supposed to vilify the "so-called Liberal Media" types he rubbed elbows with. Gannon/Guckert will have to explain how he managed to get a ticket into the Press Corp...and perhaps Rove is collateral damage there. I am wondering why anyone would even give Gannon/Guckert a book deal...at this point who cares what he has to say. Perhaps Larry "arranged" a book deal with the arrangement of such as having the opportunity to trash the media's so called liberal slant was the only way Gannon/Guckert would spill the beans because he seems to think that it will insulate him from the backlash he would receive from those on the Right for outting Karl. In other words, if he spoon feeds them "liberal media types" they won't hate him for outting Karl Rove and he can collect the "bounty".

[Dr Zen]

Abramoff or he's simply had enough. People do.

[Mary]

What Space said:

In short, he's leaving now -- and exposing himself to additional legal jeopordy -- precisely because he feels that he can run out the clock.

[melior]

"By leaving now, Mr Rove is actually putting himself at more risk.

Personally I think that he is just tired of putting up with all the bad press and its effect on his life and family."

Hmm, Jodi Wilgoren, is that you? http://wilgorenwatch.blogspot.com

[radiofreewill]

Mueller is looking like the Frodo of this story. He's the only one, so far, in BushWorld that can be trusted to carry the Ring of Power, but not use it for himself.

Nobody punks the FBI.

That means you, Karl.

[scanner]

Karl Rove has left the Bush White House to direct Newt Gingrich 's run for the Presidency.

[Squiddy]

Emptywheel, you're my politico/intellectual superior on this, so I yield if you think this is hooey. But Rove does not capitulate, ever.

With him by Bush's side, though he's proven politically bulletproof for them so far, nor are they acheiving anything with him either. His name crops up in every investigation, and it's beginning to 'look' bad in conversations around the easy-bake ovens of America.

The Loyal Royal Bushies COULD just take their pay, sit on their asses and run out the clock. (The Dems' investigations, noble though they may be, don't appear strong enough to resist executive obstructionism) So failing any other grander purpose, there's no clear point in ANYONE leaving, especially Rove.

So for BushCo, it's the appearance of sacrificing the queen. But they wouldn't do this unless it served other purposes.

I have to assume he's off to do what he does best: either getting other unqualified billionaire runt prima-donnas elected, (by way of political assasinations from Florida) or more likely to take his neo-McKinley 'realignment' doctrine underground for the time being.
The latter option could be for the near-term with whatever Cheney's got planned after the next "Chertoff's-gut-confirmed" terrorist hit, or down the road for future GOP need, whichever comes first.

The GOP doesn't care if he's an asshole. He's a hit-man first and foremost. To them he's lethally effective, even more dangerous off the radar, and they will continue to keep him VERY close in the loop at all times.

[LanceThruster]

How soon before he gets HIS Medal of Freedom? He needs to be indicted.

[SunnyNobility]

So many possibilities, but I'm betting Fielding made the call. Urgently needed him distanced from Shrub for insulation. He's now a fall guy walking.

He can use this time well, dealing with RNC e-mails, data re: vote mechanics, etc, etc... Careful as he's been, surely plenty to be cleansed/undone/revised/disappeared in anticipation of control shift (or investigation). He well knows what can't be delegated and there must be a ton of it.

[patience]

Hey Marcy,

Rove's sudden departure looks a lot like Rumsfeld's sudden departure post election. Is it possible that Rove's departure was part of the FISA bill negotiations. ie, We'll give you the full business for six months, (to get us through the August break, so that you can't use your scary terror rumors for political gain), so long as you can assure us that the wiretapping won't be misused, by kicking out and cutting off Rove and his shop, entirely.

It doesn't matter that Rove's in till the end of August because everyone who matters won't be there, and so can take precautions to prevent providing the temptation of misuse during the overlap.

The alternative for Bush is to bring the whole ugly thing to a head pre-break, rather than backing off and leaving open the possibility of a power sharing agreement down the line.

What say you?

[republicanSScareme]

Let's hope he's resigning because of a sex scandal and not because he knows Cheney is about to attack Iran with nuclear weapons and it upsets his sense of morality.

[lizard]

Wouldn't it be interesting if Rover were about to be named in the Anthrax Hatfill leak case?

[Burr Snail]

Rove: Carnahan, Wellstone ... ?
Bite my tongue?

[Burr Snail]

Rove: Carnahan, Wellstone ... ?
Bite my tongue?

[moondancer]

Lance is right. He's out cuz Fielding told him to get out. Dont know what the bomb is, but its too close to shrub. But depending on what the bomb is, there probably be no way to insulate shrub. With the exception of the sex thing(s), noone will buy anything being done by Karl w/out intimate knowledge by lil georgie.

[Neil]

This thread: NEXT HURRAH: My Guesses on Why Rove Resigned,
linked to from Salon.com THE BLOG REPORT:

Several times in the WSJ coverage of Rove's resignation, it notes that, Rove was thinking of leaving a year ago... Of course, it wasn't exactly a year ago. It was more like 15 months ago, when it looked likely that Rove would be indicted in the Plame investigation. So it's quite possible that Rove is leaving just three steps ahead of one of the many sheriffs that have him in their sights. These include: The Abramoff Investigation, The OSC Investigation, The Iglesias Investigation.

Posted on: Mon, Aug 13 2007 9:16 AM

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