Bush the Uniter

Bush truly has united the American people--united them in opposition.

Check this link to a map (h/t to dreaminonempty at Open Left) that shows Bush's popularity state by state.  There is only one state where Bush enjoys an approval rating over 50%, and that is Utah, with two (Idaho and Wyoming) where it is 46-50%.  It is 35% or below in every populous state except Texas.  His popularity in New England is so low that these states are green not blue, from 14% in New Hampshire (bye bye, John Sununu) to 20% in Maine.  And some of these polls are months old, while Bush's popularity has tanked over the last 6 months. 

The post is long, and correlates Bush's popularity plus fundrasing differentials with electoral success in the 2006 midterms.  But it's worth reading.  The gist of it is unmistakeable.  If the Dems' lead in fundraising and infrastructure continues, it is hard to imagine any Demcratic Senate or House seat being vulnerable, and it is within the realm of possibility that the Dems could take up to 8, even 10 Senate seats (AK, CO, ME, MN, NC, NH, NM, OR, TX, VA , maybe even, with the right candidate, if there is one, KS, KY, or OK).  And another 20 plus House seats--from AZ, CA, FL, IL, NM, NY, OH, PA, and other states that are in the 35 and below zone, and even some from the blue areas of NC and VA.

And I'm pleased to see that it vindicates the idea of spreading money around, especially early money, to make many more seats competitive, instead of concentrating on a few "target" races that quickly become satruated, ignoring other seats until it is almost or is too late.  It appears to take half as much as the GOP and at least $500,000 to be within the victory margin, but lots of money did not guarantee success--just the opposite.  Several challengers who reached parity or outspent incumbents lost--in CT-04, NM-01 and PA-06, for example, and some with between one tenth and one half as much won. 

Past performance is no guarantee of future success, but there is much more in these figures to hearten Democrats than Republicans.  And it makes it all the more necessary for Dems in Congress to stand up to Bush and not cave in to some chimera of "bipartisanship" when a generational victory is with our grasp.

Comments

[freepatriot]

cept for Utah, the whole country is "In Play" for the Democrats

heck of a job georgie, we couldn't have done it without you

ROTFLMAO

to paraphrase an old Clint Eastwood flik:

Not A Hard Man To Track, He leaves A Fucking Disaster Everywhere He Goes

so how many senate seats did we think we could win 15 months before the 2006 election ???

personally, I think if a Utah Senator ain't on the menu, we could win all 33 Senate races in 2008

but that's just me

btw, I thought we could sweep all 8 close Senate races in 2006 as well. cept for Harold Ford, I was right

[darclay]

Unfortunately, NC does not have anyone running against Ms. Viagra. Pray we find someone that can run or we will be stuck with no representation again.

[JohnJ]

After the last 3 major elections, I think that any Dem has to actually get 10 - 15% more votes than the Repug just to break even.

Of course I am a little jaded since I live near the House district where around 15,000 democratic voters "forgot" to vote for any candidate in 2006. Coincidentally, that was the race that Cathrine Harris was supposed to be in, but she decided to go for a senate seat that year (with the Repugs protesting her move). That House seat was her pay off for being Jeb BUSH's commissioner of elections in 2000 here in FLA!

[Mimikatz]

One very important result of the last election is that Democrats took several statehouses and Dem Secretaries of State won in, among other places, CA, OH and MN. With the exposure of the Rove plan that involved bogus lawsuits and removing US Attorneys, we will be even better prepared next time. Thre will not be a repeat of 2004, let alone 2000. More likely, they will try to cancel the election.

Notwithstanding the chicanery in your FL district, don't be defeatist. Get out and work for candidates.

[Mimikatz]

As for NC, remember Jim Webb didn't enter the race against Allen until well into 2008. Candidates will appear if the prospects are good, and Liddy Dole don't look good.

One problem recruiting is that staying in the House is a more enticing prospect this time around, so Dem Congresscritters are less likely to try for Senate. But we will have candidates by next January.

[kim]

I would never have ever guessed that NH would be the state where Bush is least popular, wow. I've been feeling pretty comfortable in liberal MA but maybe I should move up there.

[Jon]

The current Atty Gen. could beat Pat Roberts of Kansas. Roberts is unpopular and Bush is even more unpopular. The Kansas Republican party is being torn asunder by the religious right/moderate split. The Dems need a strong candidate like Morrison, a former moderate Republican who is now the popular Democratic Attorney General.

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[vasya_lfa]

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[Lonet]

George W. Bush campaigned for the presidency promising to be "a uniter, not a divider". Bush has made a strong impression on younger Americans, it is not the one Republicans wanted. Bush has warned that any coordinated international action should preserve free markets but his French counterpart, Nicolas Sarkozy, declared last month that the all powerful market that always knows best is dead.
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