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March 08, 2007

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Well I don't have any pundit credentials, and my chief claim to accuracy is that my predictions are wrong 99.9% of the time, but for what little it's worth I don't expect Giuliani to win the nomination. Or, more clearly, I think it's more likely a dark horse will come riding in between Giuliani, Romney & McCain than that any of them will consolidate support. But what do I know about politics.

But getting back to John McCain, what does he bring to the table?

Received wisdom has always been that he's a "straight-talker." After two terms of Bush-Cheney, though, the bar for straight-talk is pretty damn low: anyone who's not out-and-out lying to us about everything is going to feel like a breath of fresh, straight-talk air.

So McCain doesn't bring anything to the table. I think the only reason he polls as well as he does is because of the name-recognition boost he gets from McCain-Feingold.

Look for Huckabee from the southern state of Arkansas to be that outsider that swoops in to pick up the pieces after Guiliani and McCain self implode and Mitt Romney waffles and insults everyone that might vote for him...

When the photos of Guiliani marching in drag in the NY Gay Pride parade start circulating, he's toast. I'm with John B., I think Huckubee is going to look like the savior of the party come convention time.

I'd be much happier with Giuliani than Huckabee or Hagel. But as to McCain's appeal, I think it had been based on experience in the foreign policy and military arenas. That's why his perceived charter membership in the "Operation Iraqi Fiefdom" club has been so devastating to his popularity since the election.

Lessee...why should people vote for McCain? Well, he's a maverick within his own party and a straight talker and a war hero.

PS: Note sarcasm in above post.

why would anyone vote for someone with such spectacularly bad judgment?

for the same reason all of those fools voted for george bush in 2004

to protect us from those gays and libruals who want to destroy America

some people would rather allow the repuglicans to destroy America than allow those terrible liburals to legalize gay marriage

70% of American have BELOW AVERAGE inteligence (as demonstarted here regularly by tokyo jodi the wormtougne)

Not exactly on topic, but I've got to recommend reading through this modern day translation of Washington's Farewell Address, in which the author goes paragraph by paragraph making Washington's ancient stilted prose sound readable (if not even, for some reason, a little bit hip-hop). Open the two links above in separate windows and read them side by side. (via Language Log).

Compare for example, this translation by the author:

Since it’s obvious how much we have to gain from keeping ourselves together, we can safely say that anyone who tries to divide us, anywhere, hates America.

with Washington's original:

With such powerful and obvious motives to Union, affecting all parts of our country, while experience shall not have demonstrated its impracticability, there will always be reason to distrust the patriotism of those, who in any quarter may endeavour to weaken its bands.

Whew! good stuff, if you can get through it -- the translation helps!

Don't you think being eponymous with the current "surge" has something to do with McCain's problems?
A lot of journalists refer to it as the "McCain surge". Why? Could it be because the number of troops Bush proposed adding---20,000---was exactly the number McCain had called for several times? It turns out that 20,000 was a completely arbitrary number, in terms of needs or strategy.
Why announce 20,000 then? To me its perfectly obvious this was done by the White House to make McCain Bush's bitch.
He OWNS the surge now, along with Bush. The only motive was pure visceral hatred of McCain by Bush.
And it worked---McCain has zero chance now.
I can only hope that Hillary tanks soon as well. Her support appears to be quite fragile. She could be out of the running by the end of the summer.

If you think W is bad, just wait for Giuliani, who has W's worst traits times 10. Check this out:http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/specialguests/2007/mar/08/why_rudy_giuliani_really_shouldn_t_be_president
Here's some of the good stuff:

Even in the 1980s, as an assistant attorney general in the Reagan Justice Department and U.S. Attorney in New York, Giuliani was imperious and overreaching, He made the troubled daughter of a state judge, Hortense Gabel, testify against her mother and former Miss America Bess Meyerson in a failed prosecution charging, among other things, that Meyerson had hired the judge’s daughter to bribe help “expedite” a messy divorce case. The jury was so put off by Giuliani’s tactics that it acquitted all concerned, as the Washington Post’s Ruth Marcus recalled ten years later in assessing Special Prosecutor Kenneth Starr’s subpoena of Monica Lewinsky’s mother to testify against her daughter.

At least, as U.S. Attorney, Giuliani served at the pleasure of the President and had to defer to federal judges. Were he the President, U.S. Attorneys would serve at his pleasure -- a dangerous arrangement in the wrong hands, we’ve learned -- and he’d pick the judges to whom prosecutors defer.

As mayor, Giuliani fielded close aides like a fast and sometimes brutal hockey team, micro-managing and bludgeoning city agencies and even agencies that weren’t his, like the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and Board of Education. They deserved it richly enough to make his bravado thrilling to many of us, but it wasn’t very productive. And while this Savonarola disdained even would-be allies in other branches of government, he wasn’t above cutting indefensible deals with crony contractors and pandering shamelessly to some Hispanics, orthodox Jews, and other favored constituencies.

snip

In private, Rudy can contemplate the human comedy with a Machiavellian prince’s supple wit. But when he walks on stage, he tenses up so much that even his efforts to lighten up seem labored. What drove him as mayor was a zealot’s graceless division of everyone into friend or foe and his snarling, sometimes histrionic, vilifications of the foes. Those are operatic emotions, beneath the civic dignity of a great city and its chief magistrate.

I'd forgotten the prosecution of Hortense Gable. Damn, what a sad and heartbreaking tale.

On a more humorous note, it'll be interesting to see if Ed Koch endorses Giuliani. Giuliani made his name prosecuting New York clubhouse Democrats and really worked at exposing Koch's New York as a "City for Sale." So Koch should hate him.

On the other hand, like Koch, Giuliani was really tough on the schvartzes. Giuliani beat David Dinkins and then stuffed Ruth Messinger, two people Koch really really hated. So perhaps Koch will endorse Giuliani afterall.

This really makes me wish I still lived in New York.

Wayne Barrett and Jack Newfield used to idolize Giuliani. Does anyone know whether that still applies?

McCain basically admitted on the Daily Show some time ago that "He finally drank the kool aid" Any chance he had died when he got on his knees for the far right wing. He should have shown some balls and tried to rally the moderates behind dismembering the neocons and religious zelots. Huge error on his part.

I also hope Hillary takes a slide, I'm pretty sure she's the only candidate that could lose to a republican in the next election. Well, Kuchy could too.

The dynamic is intersting right now. It's been a long time since the things that will get a republican through the primaries are the same things that will doom them in the general. Not a good time for the dems to stick their heads in their asses and nominate someone unelectable. Polls be damned, I know a LOT of liberals and moderates that don't like Hillary.

I've been saying for months that the age thing would catch up with McCain, that and his pandering. Giuliani sounds really frightening from everything I've read. The link to the TPM Cafe piece is worth clicking.

When I said it wouldn't be Clinton-McCain I predicted Romney and Warner (this was awhile ago) and for a more interesting duo, Gore and Gingrich. I think Gore is going to disappoint, but Gingrich will jump in this fall if the rest of them look like they are vulnerable.

The gods help us all. There are 300 million people in this country and that's all we get? There is really something wrong with how we pick Presidents. As someone said, you have to be already famous now to run, which pretty well eliminates the truly competent.

here's an oddball question: has Cheney transmogrified the Vice Presidency enough that the second spot on the ticket will carry a new weight, or are Cheney's effects restricted to him and not seen as a new part of the office? and, while we've been rethinking primaries, wouldn't it be more interesting if we got to nominate both slots in the primaries?

(talk about extending the Presidential race earlier -- how about if each candidate had a potential veep running alongside him or her for the next 19 months?)

One thing for sure, the next VP won't be self-chosen ...

The role of the VP had been gradually growing, and especially with Clinton/Gore, but that may be somewhat reversed now after the Cheney experience - no one wants a shadow president who isn't the one they voted for.

On the electoral level the VP nom may matter more, in a somewhat negative way - a bad pick will hurt the prez nominee more than a good pick helps. Would people now be so tolerant of a choice like Gore picking Lieberman (even before Joe went completely off the rails)?

How does Giuliani have a post-9/11 profile? He stepped up on September 11 while President Bush was flying around the country, but what did he do after that?

McCain has crumbled on several fronts. His highly touted former prisoner of war status inoculated him to criticim for a long time, especially on military matters. His status as a war hero propelled his career and laid the foundation for his claim to the Republican nomination for President. Republicans love war heros. His "straight-talk" and "outsider" veneer endeared him to the media and independents. He was above the fray. Actually, what really endeared him to the media was his much-beloved accessibility. He provided a free all-access pass to the media hordes who prize access and a good quote above all else.

Unfortunately for John McCain, his war hero status has been chipped away at by his support for a war that many voters see as unnecessary and as one we're losing, the lack of armor and proper equipment for the troops he helped put in harm's way and now the unfolding and appalling health care scandal concerning injured veterans returning from the Iraq war. John McCain, President Bush's chief supporter and cheerleader for the war, is being held accountable for these messes by many, including potential Republican primary voters.

His status as a former prisoner of war, a status that gave him a wonderful moral platform, has rotted beneath him as the GITMO and other abuses have come home to roost. Many, including even conservative Republicans, have wondered how a man who was a former prisoner of war and who had been tortured himself could sanction, let alone let occur, such stunning abuses of prisoners.

Finally, his supposed independence from party and his reputation for "straight-talk" melted away as he became the chief cheerleader for Bush and his malignant policies. His dogged pursuit of the establishment mantel which he fervently believed would make him the next Republican nominee for President, just as Bob Dole eventually got his turn, required that he continually prostrate himself before those who never liked him. His constant pandering, to the right wing, to the extreme right wing, to the religious right wing, and to anyone who might have a vote resulted in a new nickname among Republican primary voters .... Panda Bear. Gone were the straight-talk days and the days of independence, all flushed away in the almighty pursuit of Republican primary election votes.

In six short years, John McCain went from war hero, former prisoner of war, military man, straight-talker, independent and a stand-up guy to a flip-flopper, avaricious vote pursurer, panderer and a man who looked away as troops were put into a meat grinder without even the most basic of armor or equipment and all that to test a poorly constructed academic theory that the Middle East could be remade in the image of the United States in six short years, history and logic and common sense be damned. Republican primary voters are taking the measure of the man and can one really blame them when they conclude that this is not the kind of man that they want for President in 2008.

Even among the Republican base who still support the President, many of them privately acknowledge a truism, John McCain is simply too old to be President. This is true especially in light of his previous health problems and more importantly, in light of former President Reagan's alzheimer affliction so soon after he left office.

John McCain has only one thing left going for him, he can beat Hillary. But I wonder how long this conventional wisdom will hold? John McCain may never be President of the United States. More importantly, he will never recover his reputation and his good name. When a man loses his good name what does he have left? I wonder how he'll reconcile his purusit of power with selling his name and reputation for potential votes. Not votes, but potential votes. The currency of John McCain sure must be cheap.

I lived in NYC during Rudy's reign. He is good on the stump, not good in crowds. My guess is that he thinks that because Democrats voted for him in NY he thinks they'll vote for him across the U.S.

Generally, I think he is no more warm than Bob Dole. I would be surprised if he won the GOP nomination, but I grant that it seems slightly more possible now than 3 months ago.

But I do think Newt or Huckabee (why is he getting no traction at all) or Brownback (same) could come up very, very strong on the outside. My current pick is Newt.

I still think Romney is much more likeable than Rudy, and likeability goes a long way.

That's also why I say never to write Edwards off. I talked to people who saw him in Berkeley the other day, and he was on his game.

So Newt just admitted today that he was having an affair as he was tar and feathering Clinton. That should play well. Right wingers love a good hypocrite.

Re Rudy, there's difference between evaluating who YOU/I like and who THEY like.

If the choice for the Republican nomination came down to Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Well, which way do you lean?"


3/2-5/07

Rudy Giuliani 55
John McCain 34
Neither/Other (vol.) 1
Unsure 10

"Thinking of these same candidates again, are there any candidates for whom you would definitely NOT vote for the Republican nomination for president?"

3/2-5/07

John McCain 20

Newt Gingrich 14

Mitt Romney 9

Rudy Giuliani 7

[MANY OTHERS OMITTED]

None (vol.) 24

Unsure 22

My point above isn't that I like Rudy (I am NYC-born, and know him enough to remember when he was despised pre-9/11 for being a small-minded and arrogant politician). Nor did I suggest he WILL win the nomination... too early to say.

But he certainly CAN win, and those who write him off are making a mistake.

I still think the dark horse is going to Hagel. He was featured on Lou Dobbs last night. I think his war stance has folks thinking that he one of us. It scares me because his voting record shows that he is in lock step with Bush on everything...he just speaks out as if he disagrees vehemently. I learned a great saying for the 12 step program "pay attention to what he does, not what he says." I have found this to be a very helpful guide. I fear that Hagel will have pull with evangelicals struggling with the war. He's pro choice, pro corporate america...and may have had a hand in some shade election results...corporate owner of an voting machine company...and some weird election results here in nebraska. He's attractive, and smart. (like a wolf in sheeps clothing.)

Emptypockets, dick's power is contingent upon bush's weakness.

DemFromCT, some of the scoffing at Giuliani's potential is surely being done in ignorance of the poll numbers -- but I think some of it (mine, anyway) is based on the idea that those poll numbers are being driven by ignorance of Giuliani. Which is to say, an assumption that much of the country remembers him as an image of firm composure with building dust still in his hair, a welcome contrast to the President's mental confusion and physical absence on that day and later in the Gulf Coast.

Those like you who know him better realize this image is unlikely to hold up on the campaign trail (we are already seeing it with the NYFD's stand against him). In fact, I'd say that of all the candidates on either side, Giuliani may be running the most single-image campaign and in that way is not unlike Kerry (bear with me) who focused so heavily on his war record that it became his hallmark. Likewise, couldn't you imagine a group like "SWiftboat Veterans for Truth" made up of NYC firefighters or families of people killed in the World Trade Center running anti-Giuliani ads? I think they would be devastating, since his popularity hangs on little else. And, given Giuliani, I think it is unlikely that he will find ways to prop up those poll numbers once the main support rod of the World Trade Center attacks is sawed off.

But surely it is safe to say he shouldn't be written off, nor should almost anyone not yet convicted in Federal court of anything, this far out. But I'll at least say I empathize with those cheap-suited pundits who dismiss his poll numbers as evidence of his potency, until more of those polled have gotten a better earful of his famous mouth.

"And why would anyone vote for someone with such spectacularly bad judgment?"

They voted for Bush in '04, didn't they? You think they're any smarter now?

judyo - yep.

'pockets, you know him like i know him. But the R field is so flawed, anyone can win.

Re: Rudy is very interesting, Demfrom. Is there any similar poll for the Dem field? I'd be very interested to see how Hillary fares in the "definately will not vote for" column. Understanding, of course, that a primary is very different from a general, where I'm all but sure her swing voter numbers would be truely tragic.

Wayne Barrett hates Rudy. http://www.villagevoice.com/news/0635,barrett,74322,6.html

I mean barrett wrote a BOOK about Giuliani's failures. You can read it here:
http://www.harpercollins.com/books/9780060536602/Grand_Illusion/index.aspx

I personally don't think any recognized Republican (currently announced and out there-type) will be nominated for the 2008 run.

I think they are doing the quiet "Jeb" dance in FL (Mel Martinez, George 41 and George 43) waiting to see who ends up looking like the best candidate... and then they will, if it looks like they don't have a real candidate, push Jeb to the forefront. Of course they won't do it if it looks like Rudy can do it for them. However, when the people of NY get finished with Rudy he won't be a candidate because he has too much garbage in his back yard.

When they recognize that Rudy won't make it... voila! Jeb shows up and wins the nomination. If he doesn't make the presidential run, they'll push him in as VP and wait for the '43' mess to go away. Oh yeah, they aren't going to let that Bush dynasty go anywhere even though the Bush name has been destroyed by 43... they're willing to wait it out! Why? They need to control the markets so the Carlyle Group can continue to rape the world of its profits.

I personally don't think any recognized Republican (currently announced and out there-type) will be nominated for the 2008 run.

I think they are doing the quiet "Jeb" dance in FL (Mel Martinez, George 41 and George 43) waiting to see who ends up looking like the best candidate... and then they will, if it looks like they don't have a real candidate, push Jeb to the forefront. Of course they won't do it if it looks like Rudy can do it for them. However, when the people of NY get finished with Rudy he won't be a candidate because he has too much garbage in his back yard.

When they recognize that Rudy won't make it... voila! Jeb shows up and wins the nomination. If he doesn't make the presidential run, they'll push him in as VP and wait for the '43' mess to go away. Oh yeah, they aren't going to let that Bush dynasty go anywhere even though the Bush name has been destroyed by 43... they're willing to wait it out! Why? They need to control the markets so the Carlyle Group can continue to rape the world of its profits.

here's some off topic shadenfruda

tokyo jodi the wormtongue predicted that scooter's conviction was the end of the Plame Affair

I've been predicting that Congressman Waxman was going to investigate this sorry mess

guess who was right, and who was wrong

on March 16th, Congressman Waxman will hear testimony from Valerie Plame, and begin investigating how the bushista whitehouse mishandled their duties to protect classified information

wrong again wormtongue, and thanks for making me look good

I told ya tokyo jodi was just here to provide comic amusement from a freeper piont of view

there goes your proof

Lady Haw Haw.

McCain's toast. The Rudy wave is nearly over. So the two most highly touted heirs can't make it, though Rudy may still be around by January at least.

Trouble is, he can't even carry his home state.

So clearly, the in crowd now will be

Mitt: Jeb's pushing him.

Fred Thompson: he's anti-crime, right? Bold idea, that. Almost as bold as his never-ending support for Nixon.

Hagel: this one's scary. He fits every conservative's wet dream except on the war. But as they realize that (a) being antiwar isn't inconsistent with religiousity, and (b) 2 out of 3 voters oppse the war, they might recognize they have the perfect blend.

My worst nightmare is a race between Hillary (a social centrist whose late antiwar status impresses few) vs. Hagel (social conservative who's been right on the war throughout, and a veteran).

I think he's the only one that could beat Hillary. And if that's the race, I'll have to take a serious look at Ralph Nader.

The Dream ticket? I'd love to see Obama/Richardson, with an in-your-face theme song of Neil Young singing "Southern Man". And Winona LaDuke as Secretary of the Interior.

sorry greenhouse

lady haw haw affords a sense of high position that tokyo jodi doesn't deserve

tokyo jodi is equal to one of Tolkein's character Grime the wormtongue occupies a position similar to tokyo jodi's position

slave and toady to a higher ranking slave

tokyo jodi is a snake in service to an evil master who is only a child's imitation of true evil

we have to be careful not to allow tokyo jodi to delude herself as to her true station

tokyo jodi isn't noble or lady-like, and I refuse to feed her delusion

the title tokyo jodi the wormtongue keeps her in her lowly and disgraceful position as a bootlicker to another bootlicker

nuff said ???

Freepie, I'm with you bro. I got yer back G. I'm only slightly modifying because of a lesson I got from Sara from another post:

"An alternative name for Jodi could be LADY HAW HAW. The real Tokyo Rose was a sad exchange student of partial Japanese ancestery who got caught in Japan in 1941. She did her job with something of a gun to her head.

On the other hand, Lord HAW HAW was indeed a British Titled Lord out of the Amery Family, who went to Germany because he believed in the cause, and was willing to work for the Nazi Party as a willing traitor to both his class and his homeland. But in the end, he was tried at Old Bailey, and eventually was offered the recognition of his class, the right to be hung with a silken rope."

But I'm with you on the symbolic power of the apellation applied to wormtongue, but only in it's WWII sense, pre capture and conviction of an innocent victim of both Japanese and US propaganda.

Gee, I had no idea you guys would miss her so much now that she's gone.

Fred Thompson would be dangerous, assuming he could get through the primaries and pass muster with the anti tax and god folks. If so, probably the best person they could nominate. He's gruff, but charming. Tough, yet nice. Great personality. So if he gets in, I'm amending my above Newt endorsement.

I think it shows a lot of insiders don't like Rudy at all.....and now, I bet McCain unleashes on Rudy. Fun times.

I'd root for Adam Schiff over Thompson any day.

In seriousness, someone like that "feels" right to me for whatever that's worth -- someone easily recognizable without any strong negatives in the public mind and a credible background for governing -- seems reasonable to think he could enter late and still be a contender.

And I'd love to see the campaign ads. BONG BONG.

Dem, as another area resident, I understand what you're saying about Guiliani. He's got the press ready to root him on in a fashion that will make their '00 McCain support feel flimsy. And he's got that undeniable 9/11 halo working for him -- far more than he deserves, but it's silly to pretend it isn't there for alot of voters (including some half-Dems, who've in the past demonstrated a capacity to be suckered in by a GOP "moderate", as in the CA recall).

But two things about Guiliani:

1) He ALWAYS starts out looking far stronger than he winds up. His prosecutor image in '89 was just about as glowing as his current one -- yet he ended up losing the election to a nebbish like David Dinkins (granted, the primary upset that year changed the equation mid-race). And by '93, with Dinkins toxic in the NY media, Rudy seemed a sure-bet...yet he barely eked out a victory. And in 2000, he was touted by the press as hugely likely to win -- yet he was running behind Hillary in polls at the time he dropped out. I just see him as a morning glory sort of candidate -- rarely as strong in the booth as he is on paper.

2) I also agree with the Kos analysis, I believe by Trapper John -- that if a Dem poll showed a field similarly out of step with the party's standard-type candidate, I'd assume someone would emerge in the primaries to take the more traditional mantle. The argument seems to be, GOPers know they're screwed if they don't bend significantly, so they'll change course radically. I agree that's their situation; I question whether they know or, more important, believe it. Democrats hit their Jimmy Carter moment only after the McGovern debacle. GOPers WON the last presidential election, and, in the minds of the right, Bush's problem in last Fall's election was not being conservative ENOUGH. So I'm not convinced we're going to see a group decision to moderate, which picking a pro-gay, pro-choice, pro-gun control candidate would certainly constitute. (And the more the press insists on Giuliani, the more likely they are to inflame the right -- as they did by turning McCain into a pseudo-liberal in the '00 primaries, making Bush the right's darling by contrast)

And, by the way, if Rudy does somehow get the nomination, I don't think that makes him any favorite to win the election. Those who've known me a while are aware I'm a firm advocate of the "elections are referenda on incumbent admistrations" theory. Any GOP nominee, no matter how decent, will be hobbled by the horror-show left behind by the Bush folk

Demtom, can't disagree, as usual. Rudy gives a good prepared speech, but never wears well. I lived in NYC all thru his reign.

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