by emptywheel
Lots of folks are noting this quote from Frederick Kagan, the inventor of our escalation plans.
"If we surge and it doesn't work, it's hard to imagine what we do after that," Mr. Kagan says.
It's bad all by itself. But now let's put it next to something else Kagan has said, a response to the question of whether this escalation will break the army and why we should do it if we might eventually lose. Kagan responded:
Withdrawal under secure conditions is preferable to withdrawal under chaotic conditions and spiraling violence
Talk about failure of imagination. The man admits that a withdrawal under current conditions may well be difficult. But he doesn't, apparently, have the imagination to exprress what might happen as a result of his escalation, if we're forced to withdraw. This is what bugs me the most about this escalation. They already recognize they'd have a tough time withdrawing our troops. Yet they want to throw tens of thousands more into a place they won't be able to get them out of.
Given the failure of imagination shown in the rest of Kagan's reasoning, the thought of that just makes me sick. I guess this is why Chuck Hagel calls this plan "Alice in Wonderland"?
It reminds me of the time my two year old son climbed up a very tall 20 foot slide and then slipped through the bar at the top to fall to the ground. Once he fell, it was like slow motion moving through the air and knowing that the only thing we could do was watch him drop to the ground. He survived the fall, but watching him fall to the ground was one of the most horrible moments of my life.
It feels like this only maybe not quite as personal. More will die. That's a fact. I mean, more will die. Why aren't those words enough. What the hells is wrong with us that those words are not enough.
I just can't believe that we can repeat those words over and over and it doesn't matter to republicans. The pro life crowd, the crowd who stopped the world for a lone women who would never "live" another day, the crowd that puts God on their arm bands...don't care.
And we aren't doing it to protect americans from "immediate" danger. We are doing it to protect ourselves from "potential" danger.
I just don't think god would approve of "shooting" the neighbor because you thought he "might" be dangerous some time down the road. God, bless it why don't people see the cognitive distortion????? This war, and vietnam were not based on actual threat, but "percieved threat".
Jesus H Christ (and I mean it lovingly) that means that the serial murder who thinks that he will die if he doens't fulfill his obsession can use the same cognitive distorion. Do you get that republicans???That difference is the difference between premeditated murder and self defense. Between insane and sane. It's the difference between reality and psychosis.
Posted by: Katie Jensen | January 04, 2007 at 11:50
Katie, well said.
We live in dangerous times getting more so by the minute.
Posted by: John B. | January 04, 2007 at 12:24
Well said by both EW and Katie. I just don't get this, but my concern lies way back in the dark mist of all this. I guess I should be willing to accept that these A-holes don't really have a plan, but some would argue that they have had a plan all along, and that actions have served the real undisclosed plan the whole way through. So anyway here's my darkest fear -- They do have a plan. That worries me. If things go very very badly and our troops get overrun, could that be part of a plan to get the public's ire up, to get them the room to open the broader war they we all know they really want. Or slightly less scary, could the surge really be preparation for picking a fight with Iran and starting a new offensive. I don't want to sound like a conspiracy nut, but these guys having a plan scares me far more than them not having a plan.
Posted by: Dismayed | January 04, 2007 at 12:47
Wow dismayed,that does seem like a real potential possibility and not just some conspiracy rant. "Our boys are getting slaughtered. We need to save them by sending in more reinforcements."
Posted by: greenhouse | January 04, 2007 at 13:08
But there aren't any more reinforcements.
That is the problem with all these war scenarios. It gives us ultimately the choice of nuking Iran or nothing, because they have broken the military and don't have a plan to reconstitute it (except maybe by just adding water). And they don't do diplomacy.
I wonder if the military's plan to send 9.000 troops to Baghdad and 11,000 to Kuwait is (1) an effort to protect the 11,000 and (2) protect the 150,000 who are going to have to come out via Kuwait--unless Turkey lets us use them for an exit, seen as less unpalatable than letting us use them as an entrance (which they didn't).
What a mess. How could people have let him have another 4 years of power? He really, really needs to be disarmed somehow.
Posted by: Mimikatz | January 04, 2007 at 13:21
Mimi, Bush apparently thinks he's got the wherewithall to surge. You're right though -- the question is where does he get the reinforcements? Could he redeploy troops already in Afghanistan?
Posted by: greenhouse | January 04, 2007 at 14:06
No the only option left would be Hiroshima/Nagasaki redux. It scares me. But when I think that option through, I think a long drawn out occupation benfits the war profiteers and drug dealers much more effectively. I could be wrong here. What are the valid benefits of staging a nuclear strike in the Iraq region??
Posted by: Katie Jensen | January 04, 2007 at 14:06
Katie, that's nuts.
Posted by: greenhouse | January 04, 2007 at 14:16
"But there aren't any more reinfrocements"
Indeed there are not, thus a means is needed to justify a draft. And the public would need something to happen to really boil their blood to get that done.
However, I like your scenario also, perhaps they are looking to do a big push, and this is an unspoken preparation for a worse case failure scenario. Wow, actual intellegent planning. I don't know Mimikatz, is president Dick capable of planning anything that doesn't have a dark secret agenda? We can only hope that these guys eventually make even one good decision. Man, do I ever feel sorry for our poor troops. A mess, and no good options no matter how you look at it.
Posted by: Dismayed | January 04, 2007 at 14:19
Damn I feel sorry for the guys they send over there to get killed while they either dither or scheme.
Posted by: janinsanfran | January 04, 2007 at 14:50
Dismay? Frustration? Total outrage? What is there left to say when the American people send our Pres. a completely clear and unobfuscated message that we want to change the course of the War in Iraq. History is a slight balm---we haven't "secretly" bombed Iran yet; we were unable to assassinate Chavez, destabilize Bolivia or force our will on the Mexican electorate. We've only managed to kill 400-650,000 innocent Iraqi's rather than 2,000,000 S.E. Asians. And we have only 3,000 dead Americans plus 20,000 wounded who, thanks to modern science, can now walk around without their arms and legs for the rest of their lives. I mean that's progress for you! Since we sent the message, I believe it's up to our elected represenatives to deliver it and I plan to write them every day, if I have to, reminding them to do their job.
Posted by: Jim T | January 04, 2007 at 15:27
If numbers might mean anything anywhere, I can add my voice those who've been troubled by this recurring nightmare for a while now—ever since I looked really well at a map of the region.
Like mimikatz, I've wondered whether some of this "surge," the part that was actually sought by someone in the Pentagon, were not a quiet plan to reinforce a withdrawal. At one time last month we were hearing that 3-4000 were being sent from combat engineering units, which could be useful in keeping evacuation lines open.
But God, an exit through Turkey, which in the end they might not refuse, would entail getting to the Turkish border through a lot of Sunni territory. How? Is there a warlord that can tamp down enough of the inevitable sniping to keep that from being a fighting retreat? Every evacuation scenario one tries to think of falters before such questions.
Posted by: prostratedragon | January 04, 2007 at 15:46
Johathan Schell discusses in "The Unconquerable World" how the logic of war pushes toward total war, and in the nuclear age that means nuclear war. I believe they'd do that before a draft, because a draft takes at least a year (probably more) to result in combat-ready troops, and they won't have the time. Plus, the GOPers up in 2008 aren't going to go for it. And don't underestimate the American people. They had a surge of patriotism after 9/11, but they see how Bush pissed on that. No majority is going to support a draft to punish the Iraqis for trying to get out of Iraq the troops Bush put in.
Some troops may be able to get out through the North, but most will need to use the road to Kuwait or the airport. If any of those fighting us get shoulder-fired missles like we gave to the Mujahedeen in Afghansitan, the exit will be particularly ugly.
Posted by: Mimikatz | January 04, 2007 at 16:02
Well, as I recall that was the nightmare scenario that prevented Bush 41 from a full tilt invasion of Iraq back in 199whatever(year??). The worst case scenario was civil war and not being able to get our troops out of there. I don't think they would nuke with our troops there?? Would they?
I think the truth is that Bush does not know how to get them out safely. And he's stuck. So instead of saying "hey all, I am really stuck for the solution to this problem...can we put our heads together?" He's saying, "nope, no problem here, we just need a few more troops in harms way to" ...DO WHAT??? Make a democracy?? One of the main ingrediants to all good democracies is troops. It's best if you can get them fresh in the fresh produce aisle. UGH!!
Posted by: Katie Jensen | January 04, 2007 at 16:35
And who are we gonna nuke, Iraqi's and our own troops? If you mean nuking Iran or anywhere else in that region for that matter, that still doesn't solve the problem of protecting our troops that are already there. Mimi, I'm afraid I just don't get it.
Posted by: greenhouse | January 04, 2007 at 16:40
I had a really disturbing conversation with a Republican today. When I expressed concern about the troops in Iraq and my utter dismay that Bush will be sending in more to die or be horribly wounded in his pointless folly, the Republican said, in effect, "That's their job." Bush and his party don't see our soldiers as fellow American citizens or even as fellow human beings. They are simply cogs in the "Get Me What I Want" machine, cannon fodder to be used for political power and financial gain -- as are we.
Posted by: dalloway | January 04, 2007 at 16:53
1) Simple! Speed up the influx of troops to Iraq. Slow down the egress. Voila, more troops.
The problem there is the strain on the men and women having longer multiple tours rather than just multiple tours. That is starting to hur the Active Military Manpower situation. It is killing the Reserve/Guard program. People just didn't plan on this disruption of theirs and their families lives in that capacity. They are getting out, and not going in in the first place.
2) Some plans had putting less emphasis on the outlying areas. (i.e. abandoning them) and moving those troops to the capital and close surrounding areas. This is not publicized much, but it will happen.
3) And yes we could move troops from overseas. Like Germany, where they used to hold back the Russian tide.
There you have the problem of international politics being involved and the State Department and in general a real morass.
Posted by: Jodi | January 04, 2007 at 17:04
Does it feel like there is no plan???
Posted by: Katie Jensen | January 04, 2007 at 17:11
Again Bush demonstrates that it doesn't matter what anyone says, Just up on Raw Story is the continuing saga of Bush replacing any General who disagrees with the Cheney plan. Bush always says "we listen to our generals." What he never says is "... after we fire the ones who don't say what we want." Over and over again, same shit. Bush and Cheney truly need to be removed from office ASAP. Is there any realistic mechanism for doing just that.
Posted by: Dismayed | January 04, 2007 at 18:22
Dismayed, did you see that Abizaid is being replaced at CENTCOM by a Navy man? Admiral Fallon will have charge of ground wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan.
Posted by: prostratedragon | January 04, 2007 at 21:34
I did see that. Pure speculation, but I suspect this 'unusual' appointment is the result of some screening process for a yes man. Don't want to judge the poor guy in advance. By all means Admiral, prove me wrong. Anyone know anything about this guy?
Posted by: Dismayed | January 05, 2007 at 00:09
Here's a link to an interesting article about Fallon.
http://www.insidedefense.com/public/pentagon-21-47-9.asp
Seems he and Rummy have been at odds in the past, but one could also read it to indicate that Fallon fell into line and is thus 'a team player'. Fallon was just bumped up to Vice Admiral in late '05 by Rummy. Two promotions in as many years, you've got to figure this fellow is not one to rock the boat.
Posted by: Dismayed | January 05, 2007 at 00:33
"How could people have let him have another 4 years of power?" If your find Mark Crispin Miller's Fooled Again: How the Right Stole the 2004 Election & Why They'll Steal the Next One Too believable, you'll understand that the people didn't LET him have another 4 years of power.
If they had a plan to create chaos in the Mideast, then their plan is succeeding beyond their wildest dreams, but I don't think that was the plan. The map of Iraq's oil fields that is the only part of Darth's energy committee to come to light suggests that they expected to be sucking the oil out of Iraq quickly, perhaps as early as summer 2003 (will the democratic congress be able to open up that energy taskforce's records?). Similarly, I don't think they did nothing about Katrina for the better part of a week to ensure that a large portion of LA's democratic voters would evacuate and never come back; that that was the result is pure lagniappe. F***ing up in the one case led to a good outcome for the f***upers; in the other case, not so much.
Marcy, I ordered your book; looking forward to reading it, and I promise not to mess with any Latin you may have included.
Posted by: Brian Boru | January 05, 2007 at 01:08