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December 31, 2006


wow, tabla rasa (sic, I think)

maybe it's time to start that pool on the scooter libby verdict

put me down for a sawbuck that the jury votes for conviction on all counts, with less than 24 hours of deliberation

and for a bonus, I bet jodi is here whining about how the jury just didn't understand how complicated the case was, and voted to convict because of their confusion, within 4 hours of the verdict being announced

feel free to make your own bets (we'll work out the money transfers later


freepatriot always lets his hopes fuel his enthusiasm. I won't bother to list where he has been wrong in this very blog in the short time I have been here.

I will venture that the deliberations will take a lot longer that 24 hours.

The amount that I usually bet on these kind of things is more symbolic than anything else. But normally it would be a dollar on Libby being convicted on 1 OR LESS counts at the trial IF the jury isn't hung.

Of course since I would never get near freepatriot with anything less than a gallon sprayer of mace, and a long cattle prod, it will really have to be a virtual symbolic dollar. (i.e. no exchanges of any kind, except "you were right".) Now I wonder if he is able to say that?

Any appeals will take a whole lot longer.

Since counts are counted and not measured, "1 or LESS" should read "1 or FEWER".

Normally, I'd agree with Cymro about quantities. However, during plea bargaining, charges can be diminished to lower levels of malfeasance. Suppose that you are up for a felony, but agree to a misdemeanor... you are thus convicted on a lesser count.

A warning to Jodi: if mace has a volatile oil as part of the ingrediants and the cattle prod sparks, it may ignite, and there is some danger of the flames traveling back up to the tank. Men "encouraging" barbecues with lighter fluid have been burned by flames traveling upstream. Skunk oil, pepper spray, and White Shoulders cologne all have the same vulnerability. Your aerosol weapon should thus be intermittent. You may wish to practice with pepper spray and tomatoes or something which would blacken nicely. A cajun cookbook ought to provide ideas for suitable targets.

Libby's lawyers and backers realize that the civil trial will be expensive whether he wins or not. They can raise money in any amount to satisfy a judgement, as long as Libby continues to be the loyal and silent aide. They have linked concerns: keeping Libby out of jail and protecting Cheney and Bush from any revelations. Since Libby wrote graphically about putting a bear in a cage with a young girl, he has perhaps fantasized about hardened hirsute thugs preying upon newly imprisoned soft white men... like Abramoff, he'll probably talk as long as possible to avoid incarceration.

For his dual-loyaltied lawyers, a 5 year sentence is as risky as a 30 year, so they will probably go all-or-nothing rather than bargain down... and rely upon decades of appeals and delays to protect the squatters in the Oval Office.

Fitzgerald narrowed the indictments to what he considered provable given the typical makeup of a DC jury. They might not understand layers of secrecy and spying, but everybody knows about deliberate lying and its consequences. It doesn't matter what Libby lied about, or why (despite his lawyers' trying to confuse the issues with material not in the indictment), if the jury finds that Libby lied, they will have to declare that he is guilty of lying.

Therefore, I think that Libby will be convicted on all charges.

I personally don't like spies or spying agencies. However, if a government utilizes spies, it has a duty to protect them. Outing a spy is treasonous. Valerie Plame was working to minimize the danger of nuclear materials falling into irresponsible hands, and thus blowing her cover was particularly unfortunate for the sake of everyone on this planet. Traitors and war criminals ought to be revealed and punished, in a more perfect world. In this one, we accept the fact that lesser charges, such as lying, may have to be as much justice as the system allows.

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