Flu Stories: H5N1 And The Potential Threat Of Pandemic Flu

Well, here we are 2 years after starting to write about the pandemic flu threat and nearly 10 years since H5N1 emerged (and 3 years since it re-emerged) as a potential pandemic candidate. The media hype has come and gone, but the virus remains a threat. H5N1, as we are learning, has seasonal patterns. And as the chart shows, Indonesia has been a major focus over the last year. Given the Jan-March peaks, it is not surprising that H5N1 in birds has reemerged in Nigeria and Vietnam over the last week, with a recent outbreak, again in birds, in South Korea. And where birds are, people cases follow.

And planning for potential pandemics continues. A new story in the Lancet drives the point home that modern medicine is not necessarily the answer - at least not yet, not without a vaccine.

"A flu virus as deadly as the one that caused the 1918 Spanish flu could kill as many as 81 million worldwide if it struck today, a new study estimates. By applying historical death rates to modern population data, the researchers calculated a death toll of 51 million to 81 million, with a median estimate of 62 million. That’s surprisingly high, said lead researcher Chris Murray of Harvard University. He did the analysis, in part, because he thought prior claims of 50 million deaths were wildly inflated.

Like a cat 5 hurricane, when and where remain impossible to predict. Maybe it'll be H5N1, maybe some other flu virus, but sooner or later, the next pandemic will come. In fact, these days the only people pooh-pooing it are right wing writers railing about government intervention (see Michael Fumento in the Weekly Standard). Because of that, the feds are starting to get serious about planning. But there are really a limited number of tools in the preparedness toolbox. The power tools, vaccine and antivirals, will take time to develop and stockpile. The hand tools are called NPI for non-pharmaceutical intervention, and include closing schools at the start of pandemic, cancelling large (>100 people) public gatherings, and keeping the kids away from the mall. The CDC is discussing these measures with the public and with many of the stakeholders in state and local government. Okay, so it's Science Friday, but what's that got to do with politics? Well, if your local school board has to consider the ramifications of closing the schools for 8-12 weeks, shouldn't you be involved in the process? I'd think as a parent or as an employer you'd want to be. Expect a policy announcement in January from the Feds on the topic of NPIs and community mitigation. Stay educated so you're in a position to be part of the process at the local level, where it counts. And recognoze that this isn't just an issue for specialty sites like Flu Wiki. This is an issue for all of us.

[Update]: Excellent year-end review here.

Comments

[pdaly]

"And recognoze that this isn't just an issue for specialty sites like Flu Wiki. This is an issue for all of us."

-->Especially if the flu pandemic occurs during November elections. I assume there would be no election poll sites if the schools are closed by a federal emergency plan. Guess who would have to remain President a little while longer?

[oldtree]

we can continue to talk about this, but we can do very little about it. talking creates paranoia, but no solution. It may create a "buzz" which heightens paranoia, but not action toward a solution. the CDC is working on it, but their goal is to protect the "infrastructure" meaning the vaccine, should there ever be one for a mutant virus, will go to people important enough to deserve it. which as you know means the ones willing to pay for it
if it happens, then it is a fact. If you know how to prevent getting the flu, it won't bother you unless you don't have the will power to act on that knowledge.
but acting as though there is something that can be done about a mutating virus, why? just to talk?

[Mimikatz]

Well, people can share information. It is important to get a flu shot even if it isn't for the H5N1 virus because it has some marginal protection and keeps you from being weakened by the "normal" flu. Keeping up the immune system is always important, as well as washing hands after being in public places, being sure you have emergency supplies etc. Since the last push on this was last year, I've gone through and updated supplies, being sure anything that expires in 2007 is rotated for use in the next few months etc. A little preparation can go a long way.

[pdaly]

Simple things you could do now:

You could stock up on disposable N95 masks. During an outbreak you could offer one to someone who is coughing (in a house, plane, airport or train station) and/or you could put one on yourself to protect yourself from coughers. (Also cover your eyes or wear glasses if someone is coughing at you. Eyes are a direct portal of entry into the body for bacteria and viruses. During flu season, wash your hands constantly and never rub your eyes with your fingers).

The NIOSH N95 mask or N95 respirator has been recommended by the CDC and the WHO as the minimum respiratory protection needed for bird flu. They are lightweight, disposable, and can provide respiratory protection for the wearer from many viruses including H5N1, SARS and the tuberculosis bacterium. Look for the masks in home improvement stores as well as medical supply stores and pharmacies.

The "95" designation is given to filters and/or cartridges which have been certified to be >95% effective in filtering out particles that are 0.3 microns in diameter or larger. The "N" is for use within an oil free environment.

A pandemic may take 8 to 12 weeks to pass through a community and may return subsequently in waves. Stock up on food and water supplies at home. The more supplies at home translates into less appearances in public places during a pandemic, thereby cuting down your potential exposure to serious illness.

[DemFromCT]

A pandemic may take 8 to 12 weeks to pass through a community and may return subsequently in waves. Stock up on food and water supplies at home. The more supplies at home translates into less appearances in public places during a pandemic, thereby cuting down your potential exposure to serious illness.

Absolutely. In addion to personal prepping, and because of that time frame, school closings have to be planned for. Since parents wouldn't send their kids, they'll either close at the last minute without planning, or they'll close with planning (e.g., using the public cable access for education, or the internet, planning pandemic leave and effect on benefits, etc).

The idea that 'we can't do anything' is far from true.

[DemFromCT]

along those lines, see japan:

"The government plans to call on people to store a two-week supply of food so they can stay home if an influenza pandemic breaks out, it has been learned.

link