The Next Open Thread: Election Politics

by DemFromCT

There are two interesting (free) WSJ articles today. The first is on gerrymandering, and confirms the posts by Mimikatz and other Hurrah posters - it weakens as well as strengthens to have done what the GOP did.

Redistricting: Home to Roost

How Republicans'  Gerrymandering Efforts May Have Backfired

Gerrymandering was supposed to cement Republican control of the House of Representatives, offering incumbents a wall of re-election protection even as public opinion turned sharply against them. Instead, the party's strategy of recrafting district boundaries may have backfired, contributing to the defeats of several lawmakers and the party's fall from power.

The reason: Republican leaders may have overreached and created so many Republican-leaning districts that they spread their core supporters too thinly. That left their incumbents vulnerable to the type of backlash from traditionally Republican-leaning independent voters that unfolded this week.

That helps to explain why three of four Republican incumbents in the Philadelphia area were beaten this week, while the remaining incumbent hung on by just a few thousand votes. In Florida, meanwhile, state lawmakers had shifted some Republican voters from the secure district of former Rep. Mark Foley in an attempt to shore up the re-election chances of Rep. Clay Shaw without risking the Foley seat. Instead, Democrats took both. In Texas, former Majority Leader Tom DeLay's decision to transfer thousands of stalwart Republican voters from his district in 2004 to boost a neighboring seat heightened the burden on the write-in candidate trying to hold Mr. DeLay's seat. She lost it.

"The trade-off in redistricting is between safety and maximizing the numbers," says Alan I. Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta. "You can't do both,"

See also this leadership discussion as the GOP implodes and Mike Pence makes a move.

After the party's Tuesday losses, both Speaker Dennis Hastert (R., Ill.) and Rep. Deborah Pryce (R., Ohio), who has chaired the House Republican caucus, said they would withdraw from the leadership. That leaves Reps. Boehner and Blunt as the chief targets, and both are being challenged by members of the Republican Study Committee, a conservative bloc in the party caucus.

Mr. Boehner appears to be in the stronger position since he won his post only nine months ago and is being challenged by a less experienced candidate, Rep. Mike Pence (R., Ind.). By contrast, Mr. Blunt's potential vulnerabilities include his longer tenure in the leadership and the fact that his opponent is Rep. Shadegg, who has been in the leadership before and has alliances with Mr. Boehner.

Your turn.

Comments

[MarkC]

At
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=528978
U.S. Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner opines that the effect of the Wisconsin "Marriage Amendment" was to activate liberal Democrats in Madison and conservative Democrats elsewhere in the state. I don't know if that will stand up to scrutiny, but that would be another backfire for Rovian tactics.

[chefrad]

Speaking from experience on the Hill, I'd guess it will be a while till the GOP has any coherent leadership. Debacles will do that for you.

Pence is a smart guy, but does he have anything to offer the afflicted middle class?

[DemFromCT]

chefrad, as you know, when it's Young Turks vs Old Bulls, everything else is caught in the middle.

[DemFromCT]

from Hotline, two items: Club for Growth endorses Pence, and

Not unusually nasty, but....

From Bulletin News: .... ,

Pence is being assaulted by Boehner friends in emails to members. One suggested that while Pence has done a good job with the RSC, his staff is isn't up to the job and certainly not as able as those of past GOP leaders like Newt Gingrich, Dick Armey or Tom DeLay. Boehner's staff, some of which have worked for DeLay, generally get good grades. Said one anti-Pence email, Pence "is a nice man. And a conservative," but it went on to criticize his staff. "Boehner actually does not have great staff, but they have at lease run a committee before and know floor procedures and Boehner is tough," it continued. A Pence backer dismissed the charge, though, as a dirty campaign tactic.

The Pence team, meanwhile, found Boehner's announcement letter to be mighty similar to Pence's own.

Checking in with both the Pence and Boehner teams today, we find that neither are yet to ready to release lists of supporters. Both camps concede that members aren't committing as readily as they might once have. Both Boehner and Pence will have spoken to all 200 odd members of the GOP conference by the end of the week.

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/

[William Ockham]

Since this is an open thread, I'll take this opportunity to say "I told you so" to all those here who said we would attack Iran before the election.

[p.lukasiak]

oooohhhh.... I hope (and suspect) that the campaigns against each other will be as nasty and dirty as the ones they waged against Democrats....

I'll take either Pence or Boehner -- Boehner's ties to the Foley scandal will make him a perfect target for the "GOP culture of corruption" meme, and a Pence will augers well for the Dems because it shows that the GOP didn't get the message delivered on Tuesday, and needs to move strongly to the center.

[Redshift]

I also wonder in how many places gerrymandering has been undermined by demographic trends. Here in the Northern Virginia suburbs, it's common knowledge that the congressmen in the 8th, 10th, and 11th districts made a deal during the last round to give Moran a safe D seat in the 8th, and Wolf and Davis safe seats in the 10th and 11th. As population density has expanded outward from the city, areas become steadily more Democratic, so Moran's seat has become even safer while Davis' and Wolf's have become less safe. Only the power of incumbency saved them this time; there will not be another Republican elected in the 11th after Davis moves on, and while the 10th includes more rural areas, the same may be true there.

Based on rhetoric in the past three elections, Republicans here assumed that because they were strong in the exurbs, they always would be, and since the exurbs were growing fast, they would grow in strength. They were wrong; as the exurbs grew, they got more Democratic. So in the end, their choices on numbers vs. safety end up being more short-term than the Democrats'.

[Mimikatz]

From what I have seen, exurban voters may be socially conservative on some issues, bnut they are largely fans of the public sector--public education, infrastructure, safety net programs etc. The new GOP idea of stressing small government is going to fail for the same reason it always does--people just like those programs, even if they may want them to do better, and when the Dems add health care, that will be supported too.

The Dems' move from "equality" to "expanding oppportunity" is key here. Removing barriers to advancement (like the earned income tax credit, rather than welfare, or giving tuition assistance once you qualify for college) is much better than programs that the middle class views as "giveaways."

It was a real treat on CNBC this am to hear the anchors talking about fiscal discipline returning with the Dems' coming to power.

[freepatriot]

george bush gets to learn the definition of BOHICA

Bend Over, Here It Comes Again

this is gonna hurt george a LOT more than it hurts us, and that's a sacrafice I'm willing to make

here's two quotes from Bilmon:

from the news article:

Rep. Ike Skelton knows what he will do in one of his first acts as chairman of the Armed Services Committee in the Democratic-led House: resurrect the subcommittee on oversight and investigations.

and Bilmon's take:

Skelton: (pulls on rubber glove) This is going to hurt -- a lot.

[freepatriot]

george bush thinks he's gonna exploit the Democrats' desire to appeal to voters in 2008

then this happened:

Our nation needs someone who can represent change at the United Nations, who understands the importance of a strong and muscular diplomacy, and who can garner United States allies in the war on terror. To that end, the President should immediately rethink this nomination. But if he doesn’t, I intend to make every effort to ensure that this nomination doesn’t get approved.”

exploiting your opponents' weakness only works if your opponent is weaker than you

Lincoln Chaffee killed the bolton nomination in about 3 hours

but we still get to ask bolton some questions (and bolton don't want to answer the questions

yes george, something changed since last week, but you seem to misunderestimate the advantage you have

[prostratedragon]

"something changed since last week"

Right you are, something big. Now would someone please tell James Carville?

[kvenlander]

I can't think of the Bolton nomination as anything but proof that the White House is in total disarray. Cheney holed up in his office with a shotgun? Rove in a huff because George the Lesser dissed him? Old spooks rising through the floor boards? And in the middle some theocracy school intern trying to keep the agenda moving, only nobody notices he didn't get the new memo?

[janinsanfran]

Re exurbs: strictly anecdotal, but I think folks are right that these people are ripe for a message that government CAN work for them. I did some canvassing for McNerney in Tracy, CA and met a kind of voter I seldom see in cities: 30-50 somethings with kids. (All races, BTW.) They desparately want their newly developed housing tracts to have good schools and soccer fields. They hate traffic, since they commute a long way to be able to afford the cheaper, safer neighborhoods they have bought into. Democrats can speak to their needs -- Republicans only speak to the developers that build their houses.

[Mimikatz]

I think that George is going to work with the Dems on some issues, like immigration. But he's also ging to test the Dems, as with the Bolton nomination. He evidently picked Gates without thinking that he might go through the confirmation process in a Dem majority Senate. There will be more missteps like that. Remember how the Dems couldn't get used to being in the minority? He's still President, but he's about to find just how much power Congress has.

[ab initio]

Mimikatz - "He's still President, but he's about to find just how much power Congress has."

Yes! This will be new for George. His experience is the rubber-stamp that acquiesced and followed orders. Now he will be challenged. That should bring out his petulant personality to the fore.

I have been very impressed by Jim Webb's initial TV appearances. I hope the Dems make him one of the key faces on the national TV shows. He is articulate and has a certain gravitas. He'll call out the disingenuousness of the "moderators".

[!]

Military guy in charge of the CIA. CIA guy in charge of the military. Who'd a thunk?

Plus, the CIA guy may have knowledge of back channel communications with Iran, while he almost certanily tribal and regional backstory in the Afghanistan/Pakistan area. Coincidence?

[Vadranor]

Although the WSJ article's analysis of Pennsylvania may be accurate, the discussion concerning the gerrymandering in Florida is not correct. Al Gore won Foley's district in 2000 using the lines that were in existence at that time. If the new lines that were drawn in 2002 existed two earlier, Gore would have lost the district.

Although Foley never had much difficulty getting reelected, this was not really a safe seat. Clinton carried the district in 1996.

[MarkusQ]

DemFromCT --

Just wanted to say that you were right about the dirty tricks / election fraud vs. GOTV; I've been digging through my indicators and, while there was a fair amount of probably felonious conduct, it was swamped by the sheer number of people who have "had enough".

A side benefit, I'm finding it much easier to get Rs to admit that e-voting as presently implemented is very risky; if the formerly convinced Ds don't backslide, we have a very good chance of fixing things before it's too late.

Very glad to be able to say "you told me so"...,

--MarkusQ

[Jodi]

DemFromCT,
your example of Foley and Shaw is not an example of how gerrymandering hurt the Republicans.

And why all the emphasis on Republican gerrymandering when the Democrats do as much from what I understand? e.g. CA

[[Rep Conyers]] has decided to trapdoor all the IDIOTs that foolishly believed him about impeachment.
Politics is a bitch and a turncoat isn't it freepatriot?

:)

In fact all the Democrats seem now to have left their fighting talk behind in an effort to appear statesperson like. It further appears that they realize that blogs are important but with the Lamont debacle, limited in ability to be more than just another conduit of information.

[DemFromCT]

why all the emphasis on Republican gerrymandering when the Democrats do as much from what I understand?

Because of Texas and DeLay's agressive and off-year push to change the rules in the middle of the game. Many of the Dem states (like CT) do it in a bipartisan manner. CT-05 was redrawn to be fair to both parties. They will not pull a DeLay.

n fact all the Democrats seem now to have left their fighting talk behind in an effort to appear statesperson like. It further appears that they realize that blogs are important but with the Lamont debacle, limited in ability to be more than just another conduit of information.

Duh. When grown-ups are in power, that's what they do. As for the blogs and the netroots, read carefully.

link

link

We ARE the center (which is broad). Republicans are the marginalized and regionalized right.

[Jodi]

DemFromCT,

you are a very smart man. Even more diligent, and hardworking, I would say.

But you like to play "pretend" in order to enthuse your readers.

[DemFromCT]

nah, we just see the country in ways you don't yet, ahead of the curve.