What Happened To All Those Safe Seats?

It has been common wisdom for so long--gerrymandering created so many safe GOP seats that they could never lose the House.  Yet now they stand on the brink of defeat, and the only question is how big will it be?  How did this happen?  What happened to all those safe seats?

The Cook Political Report is generally recognized to be objective, not partisan.  They post a Competitive House Race Chart every two or three weeks (weekly now), in pdf format, and they are available on their website by going to the linked page and clicking on the desired date.  They show the seats held by each party that are considered toss-ups, lean (party) and likely (party), with the remainder considered safe seats.  Right after Bush's inauguration they posted their first chart for 2006.  It showed the Dems with 183 safe seats, exactly what they have now.  In fact, the entire cycle the Dems have never fallen below 180 safe seats, out of a total of 202 they hold.  (Sanders is counted with the Dems.)   On January 21, 2005 the Dems had 4 tossup seats, 8 lean Dem and 7 likely Dem, a total of  12 competitive and 7 potentially competitive seats.  Now they have no Dem seats that are considered toss-ups, 13 lean Dem (of which 4 are GOP-held) and 10 likely Dem, a bit of an improvement.

The Republicans started the cycle with more seats at risk.  They had 204 safe seats, with only 2 considered toss-ups (IN-09 and PA-06, presumably because of the close vote in 2004), 16 lean GOP and 11 likely GOP, for a total of 18 competitive and 11 potentially competitive seats.  With yesterday's revisions, the GOP now has only 170 safe seats in the Cook Report's opinion.  Four seats are lean Dem (AZ-08, CO-07, FL-16 and TX-22), 25 are toss-ups, 16 are lean GOP and 17 are likely GOP.  That's 45 competitive GOP-held seats and 17 more that are potentially competitive, three of which were added yesterday, AZ-01, CA-50 and KS-02.  I would also add NE-03, which CQ just upgraded, and WA-05. 

The GOP seemed initially to be in great shape.  By June 17,  2005 the GOP was up to 206 safe seats, and the Dems were down to 180 safe seats, a formidable situation for the Dems.  But many of the 18 competitive and 9 potentially competitive GOP-held seats were already open seats, or soon would be, with some Republican representatives retiring and some seeking higher office.  It was a gradually accelerating decline from there, as more and more seats that were supposedly safe became less so. One year later, in the June 7, 2006 chart, the GOP was down to 191 safe seats to 181 for the Dems.  The Dems had two toss-ups, while the GOP had 9.  Ominously, there were now 24 GOP-held seats listed as likely GOP, or potentially competitive.  Then  . . . .

Over the summer,  Democratic challengers fought hard and the news went mostly against the GOP.  By September 1, 2006, just when normal people started paying attention, there were 180 Safe Dem seats to only 178 safe GOP seats, the first time the GOP had fallen behind.  And with Tom DeLay's defeat in the courts, TX-22 was now "lean Dem."  The September 11 blip was just that.  Of the 10 GOP seats listed as tossups in the June 17, 2006 report, 2 are now lean Dem, and 8 are still toss-ups, joined by 17 new endangered GOPers.  None of the GOP toss-up seats have gone off the critical list; FL-16 (Foley) went from likely GOP straight to the lean Dem list, and NY-26 (Reynolds) went from safe to tossup soon thereafter.

Now, the same seats that were competitive in September, 2005 are still competitive, except Charles Boustany (LA-07), most of them more so.  And look at this month's additions to the competitive and potentially competitive GOP seats:  ID-01, MN-01, NV-02 and OH-02 are now competitive, and CO-05, NC-08, OH-02, PA-04 have joined the potentially competitive list.  The GOP has lost ground everywhere outside the deep South (but including Florida, with 5 listed seats, and 7 seats in KY, NC and VA), not just in the Northeast but in the West and upper midwest as well.  If the Dems win just over half of the GOP's lean Dem and toss-up seats, they win the House.  With a major push, the Dems should win half of the 45 competitive GOP seats and 2 or 3 of the potentially competitive--even seats not yet on the list that no one is watching.

Comments

[DemFromCT]

What heppened to all those safe seats? Iraq and Bush. people are now afraid that Bush' competence on iraq will match his work on Katrina.

[ab initio]

Thanks MK. I love posts which provide historical perspective and trends. Would you have info from past elections on polls a month out vs actuals? Curious if we can apply probabilities to the polls based on past results and actually come up with tighter numbers for win/loss.

[emptypockets]

If I understand right, the policy of the Cook Report is never to downgrade an incumbent below "toss-up" -- a policy that seems itself predicated on the assumption of gerrymandered safe seats. That you have taken their analysis and used it to dispel part of the assumption it was based on is particularly compelling.

On another topic, do you see any meaningful relationship between the stock market's recent buoyancy and the increasingly likelihood of at least one Dem takeover, or is it just coincidence?

[Mimikatz]

Katrina didn't affect the congressional races right away. The GOP didn't really start bleeding until May of 2006. In January of 2006 the GOP still had 191 safe seats to 181 for the Dems.

How did the Dems do it? Iraq, yes, but also better candidates (in some cases much better), better message (remember Dem challengers have been attacking on Iraq, even if the DC Dems have been relatively quiet), lots of money and, yes, Iraq.

I think that a fair number of the GOP toss-ups may survive because they were ready for a tough campaign, while the Dems could take 10-15 seats from the lean and likely GOP columns, where the incumbents weren't.

One correction: it looks like the first time the Dems had more safe seats was June 7, 2006, when the Dems had 181 and the R's had 180.

[Jodi]

I will guess that with the House and Senate changing hands, and even some moderate Republicans turning into Democrats that the Iraqi war will be abandoned.

The only question will be how to get out without the congress looking like it caused a bigger mess than the President.

The President (Bush) realizing that all he has to win is a better place in history will predict that if the congress brings about a disaster (actually further disaster) it will be on their head, and he will endeavor to be seen as a prophetic Winston Churchill type leader, ousted by a foolish self serving Parliament.

That is all he can do.

[Mimikatz]

Pockets: As you can see from what they did to Reynolds, that policy isn't inviolate.

I think that Wall Street would favor divided government, meaning the Dems taking at least one house. The Dow Jones is at a high, but not if adjusted for inflation, and the S&P 500 and especially the NASDAQ not. At least the NASDAQ if not both are below where they were when Bush took office. The stock market mostly affects the top 5% or so. Most people have stock mutual funds in retirement accounts, so it is kind of imaginary gains.

Historically, the stock market does better under the Dems, I think because they tend to spread prosperity wider and that boosts growth. The GOP concentrates wealth and power, and tolerates some sereious inefficiencies in service of their redistributive agenda.

[freepatriot]

you can fool some of the people all of the time

and you can fool all of the people some of the time

but you can't fool all of the people all of the time

apparently, the "some of the people" that you can fool "all of the time" is about 32%

those who do not remember the past ...

[Mimikatz]

And for the historical perspective: In its last report on October 29, 2004 Cook had 7 Dem tossups, of whom one lost, I think; 10 lean Dem, of which 1 lost (Baron Hill in IN-09) and 6 likely D, of whom two lost in Texas--Max Sandlin and Nick Lampson. Martin Frost also lost in Texas, and Charlie Stenholm lost in a new seat that was listed as lean R. I think. One R lost, Phil Crane, who was listed as a R toss-up.

But that was a funny election because of the Texas redistricting, and of course there wasn't the 16% congressional approval and dislike of Bush and the GOP then, more's the pity.

[Mimikatz]

Or, "Those who don't remember history have to take it in summer school." ---Buffy the Vampire Slayer.

[freepatriot]

history is easy

knowing what the history is designed to hide is the hard part

[emptypockets]

Mimikatz, it looks like Reynolds' seat was only downgraded to "toss-up," consistent with the Cook Report's incumbent policy. They did downgrade Foley's seat further but I'd think the incumbency rule went out the window when he resigned even though his name will appear on the ballot.

[Mimikatz]

OK. You are right. I put NY-26 in the lean Dem category along with PA-10, though. I'll update my list tomorrow.

[John Casper]

By September 1, 2006, just when normal people started paying attention....
LMAO.

[freepatriot]

people in Normal gotta pay for attention ???

I knew Kansas was fucked up, but I had no idea it was so bad

[William Ockham]

I think the answer to the question of what happened to all the safe seats that gerrymandering was supposed to create is the gerrymandering itself. An example is in order to explain that seemingly confusing statement. Let's take TX-22 as an example. That's Tom DeLay's old seat and I guarantee you that Nick Lampson will have it in January. Texas was gerrymandered to ensure a Republican majority Congressional delegation in the 2004 election. To achieve that end, Tom DeLay gave up a lot of strongly Republican precincts so they could be used to create comfortable Republican majorities in other districts. The goal in Texas (like a lot of other redistricting efforts) was to create as many 55-45 majority districts as possible for your party while cramming your opponent in fewer, but much higher margin districts (65-35 typically). The assumption was that 55-45 was a safe margin (in the face of demographic changes, etc.), at least until another redistricting could be performed. DeLay never considered that he could screw things up so badly that his party would essentially no chance to hold on to a 55-45 majority district with a popular incumbent.

The flaw in this logic is that you create fewer total seats for your opponent, but those seats are inherently "safer" than yours. If your party hits a run of bad news, you will suddenly have a whole bunch of incumbents who have never really faced a difficult challenge in serious trouble. Of course, your opponent needs to be positioned to take advantage of the situation by recruiting and funding real challengers. It's about time people started acknowledging that Howard Dean has the right idea about how to build a party.

[Mimikatz]

WO: Yes, that is part of it, especially for TX-22. And probably in IN, NY and OH. But gerrymandering doesn't explain CA-04 (R+11), ID-01 (R+19) or KY-02 (R+13) being competitive, or CO-05 (R+16), NE-01 (R+12), OH-02 (R+13), or WY-AL (R+19) being potentially competitive. That is due to poor or unresponsive GOP candidates, scandal and Iraq.

[William Ockham]

Mimikatz,

You are correct. I'm not trying to explain the whole phenomenon, simply pointing out that the scope of the Republicans' problem is exacerbated by their own handiwork. In effect, they "misunderestimated" the safety margin needed to ride out a potential national wave of voter disenchantment. Since I live close to TX-22 and voted for Nick Lampson two years ago, I'm mostly engaging in a bit of oh-so-sweet schadenfreude. If you think the national Republican party is odious, I would invite you to take a close look at the Texas Republican party. On second thought, don't bother. Nobody should have to look at something like that.

[emptywheel]

I was wondering today what explains our selection of much better candidates this year. Rahm surely gets some credit (Shuler will waltz to victory, it's looking like). Then there's the issue that for anti-war candidates--even for anti-war veteran candidates--the Democratic party was the only feasible party. Ditto electoral reform. But I also think some of it has to be attributed to open source selection--since DC bagged on widespread recruitment, it left the field open for some more confrontational candidates who could make the most of a R+10 district. And, finally, I think it's a testament to the fact that fed up people who decide to run (accidental candidates, Markos likes to call them) resonate better with voters than a lot of professional politicians.

[texas dem]

Gerrymandering isn't responsible for the seats you list, Mimikatz, but gerrymandering is probably responsible for all of those R seats in New York coming under pressure at the same time. Not one of those incumbents (except Reynolds) did an obvious thing wrong, but I'm guessing they're all rigged to vote in about the same percentages, close to 55-45.

only site I've found with 2004 presidential vote by Congressional District (click on the state first)

Incumbent: Bushvote-Kerryvote

Sue Kelly: 54-45
John Sweeney: 54-46
John McHugh: 51-47
Sherry Boehlert: 53-47
Jim Walsh: 48-50 for Kerry
Tom Reynolds: 55-43
Randy Kuhl: 57-42
Vito Fossella: 55-45

Katherine Harris: 56-44
Mark Foley: 54-46
Clay Shaw: 48-53 for Kerry

Steve Chabot: 50-49
Deborah Pryce: 50-49

Chris Chocola: 56-43

Richard Pombo: 54-45

Robin Hayes: 54-45
Charles Taylor: 57-43

Cathy McMorris: 57-41

I see three classes of seats that we have a chance to grab this year. There's the long-time (usually) Republican incumbents in blue districts. The three CT races, the three Philly races, Clay Shaw, Heather Wilson, Dave Reichert, the Nussle seat, the Beauprez seat... that's about it. These are the districts Charlie Cook and co were looking at 12 months ago.

There's also the lightning strike districts. Two subsets: the scandal districts: Ney, DeLay, Doolittle, Cunningham, Foley, Reynolds, Sherwood, Pombo. And, the lucky primary districts. The results of Republican primaries, and especially Club for Growth activity, are necessary (though not sufficient) conditions for our chances in CO-05, ID-01, NE-03, and to some extent, OH-02. We almost got lucky in NV-02, and even though we already planned to fight there, we got very lucky in AZ-08 also. Most of these weird Western seats that are in play, required Club for Growth primary wins to put them in play. That's not a fun conclusion but it's true. The other western seats that are in play -- Conrad Burns, Barbara Cubin, Marilyn Musgrave -- depended on complete dolts winning Republican primaries long ago. We've done great things to take advantage of the situation, but we didn't get there on our own.

The third class of seats is the one that I was originally trying to post about. That's the big group of R incumbents in "safely drawn" 55-45 seats. Unlike the first group, these guys didn't see their challengers coming and didn't campaign up 12 or 18 months ago. The Chocola story writ large. These are the seats it would be fun to sweep away; although, they'll be harder to hold than the first group of seats. Still, the "wave" everyone talks about consists of the fact that 55-45 gerrymanders aren't safe in this climate, and if even a good portion of those 55-45 incumbents lose, Congress will be a VERY different place in 2007. These seats were designed to stay Republican, but the map-drawers did not plan for an environment as deeply hostile as this one. They cut their maps too close and could lose a whole lot of seats as a result.

So if you try to figure out a narrative, you have 1) the old "moderate" Republicans in blue districts finally getting chucked out, plus 2) Republican hubris, in various forms, coming to bite them. That hubris ties together the scandal seats, the ClubforGrowth seats, and the too-confidently-gerrymandered seats.

And of course, the reason their hubris is misplaced, the reason their aggressive posture is failing them, is that they don't have the subtance necessary to govern well and keep the illusion going. They campaign like wolverines -- again, tying together the K Street corruption, the aggressive gerrymanders, and the aggressive use of primaries -- but they govern so very badly that the scales fall off people's eyes and they see only corrupt, power-hungry incompetents. Or rather, they see Iraq and Katrina, and the completely unserious responses to both, and decide they've seen enough.

Hm, last paragraph needs work, but I gotta run.

[emptypockets]

emptywheel, I was wondering about that also and wondering how much of it is just that there are MORE democrats lately, and so we're drawing from a bigger pool -- and when you do that you usually end up with more talented people.

[Mimikatz]

It's everything. I agree about the 55-45 seats this time around. That's why I mentioned IN, NY and PA as places where redistricting would work in our favor this time.

I have several times cited Jonathan Krasno's piece the Redistricting Myth. Much of what is attributed to redistricting and/or the power of incumbency is a self-fulfilling prophecy in that incumbents often don't get strong challenges. This is exacerbating by targetting, where most money flows to a few seats. Good challengers are reluctant to challenge where they don't think they will get support.

This time the Dems did do an active recruitment job in re-fielding strong challengers such as Lois Murphy, Diane Farrell, Baron Hill and Ken Lucas and recruiting good candidates like Patsy Madrid in NM-01, Linda Stender in NJ-07 and Mary Jo Kilroy in OH-15 who had proved they could win elections. They were also pushed by the netroots' and pros like Ruy Teixeira's agitation for spreading the field. And the weaker the GOP looked, the more good challengers came in of their own accord. That is really true of the Western candidates. Look at the guys in NE-03 and WA-05--rancher-scholars with PhDs and new ideas to revitalize agriculture as well as opposition to the Iraq War. And, of course, there are the crazy Clubbies like Sali in ID-01 and Lamborn in CO-05. And there is enough money and enthusiasm that the Dems can put resources into lots of races. So it looks good for lots of reasons.

[ab initio]

This could be the perfect storm for many of the reasons stated on this thread. All the polls are close and I am biting finger nails as I feel the races are a lot closer and the margins of victory will be quite small - so it could go either way. We still live in a polarized country and when it gets time to pull the lever Repubs will vote their party. The question is will more Dems turn out in 3 weeks and vote their party? How reliable are the voter intensity numbers in the polls? The grounds for optimism are that the Dems have credible challengers in many more races against incumbents and so the law of probability means some of those races will turn blue.

What are the most reliable indicators in the last weeks of an election?

[jwp]

Texas Dem

interesing post

[emptypockets]

Speaking of Reynolds, apparently SurveyUSA now has him back in the lead.

Feels like we're in the bottom of the 9th, up by 2, 2 out, but they've got the bases loaded. Historically speaking, of course, that still ends well for us.

[joe]

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