Updating the House Races: The Conundrums

By Mimikatz

If I am obsessed with taking back the House, it is because of my distress at the almost incalculable damage that the GOP has done to this country and the world in the past six years. If I am lucky, I will live another 25 years, and it will probably take that long to undo the damage done in the past 6 years. 

I support the Democrats (and always have) because I believe in international relations not imperial fiats, in diplomacy first and war only as a resort in self-defense or defense of allies, in more opportunity and equality, better education, broader prosperity, fairer taxation, curbs on exploitation and excessive greed in the marketplace, sustainable energy, environmental and agricultural policies, basic healthcare and retirement security for everyone, a sphere of personal liberty and privacy, and passing something better on to the next generation, not a world ravaged by war, pollution and debt.  I am old enough to remember the days when Democratic control meant problems were attacked, sometimes even solved. I am absolutely certain that there is a far, far greater chance that we will come nearer to any and all of the goals I care about with the Democrats in power. 

Will we make it?  I still think so, although the picture is in some ways murkier.  There are so many polls, but they are now so contradictory in some cases that some of them have to be plain wrong, even as snapshots.  Take NY-20, for example.  Since August 28 there have been 6 polls, showing everything from a 13-point lead for Gillebrand (Constituent Dynamics) on October 18 to a 14-point lead for Sweeney (Siena) the very next day.  Both can't be right.  But firms that have polled more than once show a race trending in Gillebrand's direction (with similar indications in other upstate NY races), and that may be the most we can say. 

The big differences among polls at this point are probably differences in how they identify likely voters, how far to push respondents and how to account for seeming shifts in party ID in getting a representative sample.  More people in surveys appear to be identifying themselves as Democrats. A majority is definitely angry and disillusioned about Iraq, Bush and the GOP in general.  Is this a temporary shift?  And most important, will they vote?  Or will the hard-core GOP voters turnout in droves to support their party as they have in the past?  Who has the best GOTV?  And who cares more?  Will enough Dems vote to tip all those carefully gerrymandered seats in NY, PA and elsewhere? 

And then there is money.  The Dems finally have enough money to be able not only to fund the most competitive races (some might say over-fund) , but also some of the newly competitive races.  But infusions of GOP cash may yet save Tom Reynolds in NY-26 or Joy Padgett in OH-18 and some of the newly endangered GOPers. 

But my answer is still yes.  The Dems should take the open seats in AZ-08, CO-07, FL-13, FL-16, IA-01, MN-06, NY-24, TX-22, where they are leading, and at least one or two more that are closer--IL-06, OH-18 or WI-08, and then maybe even CO-05, ID-01, or NE-03, although those are real longshots.  That's 9-10 seats.

Then the Dems should knock off at least 8 -10 incumbents.  Most likely in IN-08 (Hostettler), IN-02 (Chocola), NC-11 (Taylor), NM-01 (Wilson), OH-15 (Pryce), PA-06 (Gerlach), 07 (Weldon) and 10 (Sherwood).  Maybe in CT 02 (Simmons) or CT-04 (Shays) or both, maybe FL-22 (Shaw), KY-03 (Northrop) or KY-04 (Davis), or NY-26 (Reynolds).  Maybe VA-02 (Drake) or WA-08 (Reichert), although that race seems stuck at -3 for Darcy Burner.  With some margin for error, including one or two Dem seats lost, that is enough to give the Dems control.  But wait--there's more! 

I also expect the Dems to take anywhere from 5 to 20 seats among AZ-01, AZ-05, CA-11, CA-50, CT-05, IN-09, KY-02,  MN-01, NJ-07, OH-01, OH-02, CO-04, IL-10, NC-08, NH-02, NV-02, NY-03, 19, 20, 25, 29, PA-04, PA-08, and even KS-02, MT-AL, NE-01, NV-03, VA-10, WA-05 and WY-AL, although predicting which ones is even harder here. 

We will have some idea from the early closings (7:00 Eastern) in GA, KY, IN and VA, but we won't know until much later whether there really is a Dem wave in upstate NY (where the polls close at 9:00 Eastern) or whether the West is ready to turn bluish (polls close at 7:00 Mountain time [9:00 Eastern] in most states, and then 8:00 Pacific in CA, OR and WA).  That will be the difference between 16 seats for the Dems and 36 seats.   

Comments

[Mimikatz]

For a much more scientific discussion of some of the same issues, complete with nifty charts and graphs, see Pollster.com. We come to many of the same conclusions, though they don't discuss specific races yet.

[John Casper]

Thanks MimiKatz, as always.

[ab initio]

Hopeful and cautiously optimistic for a big Blue wave! The country needs it. MK, you are absolutely correct, what has been destroyed in 5 years will take a generation to repair. Its easy to slide but hard to build. In the business world it takes a long time to build a brand but the brand can be tainted in a flash.

To get America back to its founding principles and the rule of law. The America that was a beacon of freedom and liberty and egalitarianism and opportunity to those oppressed under communism and dicatatorships. The beacon for the young in the world to come and get an education - the past 5 years have shattered their conceptions. We are more reviled today than at anytime in our history. We have sacrificed our 240 year heritage of values and our republic at the altar of greed and power. A single presidency has destroyed what over 40 built. Hopefully we don't need another 40 to get back to our heritage.

[Mimikatz]

Make it happen!

[William Hallowell]

Find out how other Americans feel. Our foreign policy index is an amazing way to gage public opinion about American foreign policy and the current state of affairs, and from the way things look, the public may just be at a tipping point. Read on…

Here at Public Agenda, we’ve created a new tool to track Americans’ opinions on foreign policy issues, providing a basis for political commentary. Similar to the Consumer Confidence Index, the Foreign Policy Anxiety Indicator provides policy makers, journalists and ordinary citizens with the public's overall comfort level with America's place in the world and current foreign policy.

An essential tool updated twice a year, the Indicator will consistently provide much-needed information on the public’s perception of more than two dozen aspects of international relations.

In a world strewn with violence and highly-charged international issues, Americans are broadly uneasy about U.S. foreign policy. The September 2006 shows the Foreign Policy Anxiety Indicator at 130 on a scale of 0 to 200, where 0 is the most confident, 200 the most anxious and 100 neutral.

Eight in 10 Americans feel the world is becoming a more dangerous place for Americans, yet they're also skeptical about most of the possible solutions, such as creating democracies or global development. Only improved intelligence gathering and energy independence have substantial support, with energy firmly established as a national security problem
for the public.

In fact, the public lacks confidence in many of the measures being taken to ensure America’s security. Less than 33% of Americans give the U.S. government an “A” or a “B” grade for its execution of the following foreign policy issues: reaching goals in Iraq and Afghanistan, maintaining good relationships with Muslim countries and protecting U.S. borders from illegal immigration. And these are just a few of the findings of the survey.

These are some of the other startling findings:

- 83 percent say they are worried about the way things are going for the United States in world affairs (35 percent worry "a lot", with an additional 48 percent saying they worry "somewhat.")

- 79 percent say the world is becoming more dangerous for the United States and the American people

- 69 percent say the United States is doing a fair or poor job in creating a more peaceful and prosperous world

- 64 percent say the rest of the world sees the United States negatively

- 58 percent say U.S. relations with the rest of the world are on the wrong track

Want to learn more? Go to http://www.publicagenda.org/foreignpolicy/index.cfm to download the report.

Public Agenda is a nonprofit, nonpartisan group devoted to public opinion and public policy. The confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index is developed in cooperation with Foreign Affairs with support from the Hewlett and Ford foundations.

[Mimikatz]

CQ is out with new ratings and projects 209 Dems, 208 Rep and 18 no clear favorite. They have moved NY-20 (Sweeney) to no clear favorite. Not having Cook's Rule, they now have 5 GOP seats as Lean Dem, including 3 incumbents (IN-08, NY-26, PA-10 as well as FL-16 and TX-22), and one as Dem favored (AZ-08). They show only 163 safe R seats to 183 safe D seats, while Cook now has 168 safe R seats as of today, 50 in jeopardy and 15 likely R.

Pollster.com has an easily accessible chart with the polls in 65 House races here. You can see how widely they diverge, depending on their turnout models.

[Jodi]

MimiKatz,

there will not be 25 years for the Democrats to do the repair job you speak of, if that is what you mean.

I think the swings/shifts from Republican Government to Democrat and back to Republican is speeding up. I have only been keep track of it on personal level since the late 90s but in looking back at all the histories where they are cited concerning todays events, I see a shift in speed of the change of Electoral Moods.
Back in the [[predawn]] before Internet, 24x7 cable/satellite TV and now even Radio news coverage, shifts of preferences and loyalties were much slower. The old media, magazines, newspapers were the main shifters of opinion, with some radio and finally Network TV. These were slow movers compared to today.

I would expect in the future that no Party will hold the Presidency longer than 8 years, and probably 4 year terms will become more common, as expectations increase, and politics become more bitter and volatile.

I think the big thing for all the problems is simply 911, Afghanistan, and the Iraqi war.

But there was a Gulf war, and before that a Vietnam, and Korea, and so on. There is always a MidEast problem usually with Israel at the center but not always.

There was the cold war, which I need to know more about, but that is where all the weapons came from. [I saw the movie with Nicholas Cage as a arms dealer, the Lord of War.]

Then there were all the little things. Bosnia, Somalia, Grenada, Panama, and on and on

There are still terrorists out there and still militant Islamics, and crazy Mormons, and radical groups all over the USA.

I would expect things to be popping all over the world for some time to come. And Democrats in the House will have to follow the Public's mood are a shift will again be made.

"Wars and rumors of wars"

I don't think you can relax MimiKatz. We will throw out "these rascals" but there will be a new group coming to a Legislature near you very soon.

[Mimikatz]

I'm not relaxing, Jodi. I have been following politics since the 1948 Presidential, when I remember sitting in front of a radio listening to the returns as we worried that Dewey would be Truman. I remember the stories of the Depression when kids were put in orphanages because their families couldn't care for them and people routinely committed suicide because of how bad things were. I personally remember the blackouts during WWII when we had to take baths in the dark when the ships sailed out of SF Bay, and the Korean War, the Rosenberg executuions, and all the bomb/Red Menace scares of the 1950s.

It is not worse now, nor scarier. Not at all. That is what is so infuriating. Our country as a country is in no existential danger from terrorists. There is always the danger of casualties from an attack, but these pale against the level of gun violence and auto accidents we live with. Our country will endure unless we give it away to the tyrants among us.

On change, Congress was pretty stable for decades because of the Solid South. But the Presidency changed parties in 1952, 1960, 1968, 1976, 1980, 1992, and 2000. About average. I think that the country would appreciate a racheting down of the level of partisanship, a serious attempt to solve problems, and a return to a positive, hopeful spirit. It isn't possible until the spirit of Roveism is purged from the land, but a Dem Congress and then President in 2008 is a good start.

[Jodi]

That reminds me.

My older uncle, the one not military, tells of when he was about 4, and the family was visiting relatives near Charleston about 1943 or 1944, and they lived by the inland waterway, that had a direct route to the Harbor and shipyards in Charleston. All the houses were blacked out on the water side. Thick black curtains.

One night he was out on the porch watching all these colored lights on a ship out on the water. The older people came out and shoo'd him back inside and closed and locked the door which didn't face the water, and dropped a curtain down on it.
He remembers the words "subchaser" and "harbor" and other stuff just like it happened a week ago even though he was very small.

[pdaly]

I agree that the Democrats hold the key to saving this country from ruin. Unfortunately some immigrants to this country-- people who know firsthand the repressive powers out-of-control governments can wield against its citizenry—may be the last ones to vote for Democrats, because in their minds ‘Democrat’ equals ‘communist’.

I have two friends (they do not know each other) who, upon immigrating to the US, became registered republicans. Until now this seemed a reasonable (over)reaction to their former communist party indoctrination. However, if I thought their experienced eyes could spot the damage Bush/Cheney are doing to America, I could not have been more mistaken.

My friend from the former Soviet Union had her university studies interrupted every autumn by government-assigned ‘harvest duty.’ The students collected the potatoes in the field while drunken farmers sat on porches shouting out orders.

When I suggested that the Bush Administration repeatedly lied to us to get its way and that the US mainstream media was complicit --like a modern day Pravda, her cheeks flushed with anger as she sputtered something about how ‘Reagan understood’, that Clinton’s policies would have RUINED this country, that I as a native American have no idea how bad communism is for people, that she lived it and knows. (For the record, I was defending the American Constitution and separation of powers. I was NOT defending communism! Unfortunately, saying I’m a Democrat seemed to be synonymous in her mind).

Never one to talk politics she quickly asked to change the subject. I never heard her reasoning for her strong feelings. As this conversation was during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, and given the fact that she is Jewish, I thought her comments could be colored by both.

However, my other friend (again they do not know one another) was raised in China by her grandparents while her parents (both scientists) were carted off to be re-educated during the Cultural Revolution. I mentioned to her that Bush’s attempts to consolidate power with his end runs around both Congress and the courts made me feel like America was slipping into totalitarianism.

Her response: it was like spotting a discarded fast food container littering the sidewalk and declaring that America is turning into a third world country. America of today pales to the China she lived through and that the comparison is extremely insulting. The Chinese government took possession of her family’s property. US Republicans stand for property rights and do not let the government interfere with business.

Yeah, whatever.
Hoping Amercian-born republicans can sense the difference in the air since Bush/Cheney came to town. Hoping American-born republicans will vote to get rid of Bush’s ‘uniter not divider’ doublespeak, ginned-up intelligence pre-emptive wars, and ‘pay-to-play’ political platform.

[Sara]

Jodi, during World War II we were all involved in various ways -- even the kids. I lived on the then edge of town, near a Metro Park, and every spring we went in and tapped the Maple Trees for sap. We were not experts at this, but since sugar was rationed, we needed the sugarbush. Much of it was used to process a friend's apple orchard in the fall -- we built large vats and made applebutter and then canned it.

We had German POW's to work in the orchards, picking the fruit, sorting what was for processing, what was for sale. The Orchard was on a slope that overlooked one of the major E-W rail main lines going east -- from Detroit and Toledo through Akron, and on to the ports on the East Coast. While we picked apples we could watch the process of putting Rubber Products on Jeeps and other weapons in the bye to the main line. They would pull in a 120 car train with the Jeeps and artilllery pieces mounted on flat-cars, and the rubber workers would essentially process the train. Rubber for 4 tires and 2 spares, fan belts, brake replacement bits, and finally a grease spray for everything to protect from salt water. It was one train after another during the fall of 1942 and the summer of 1943 and 44, just a continuation of the assembly line that saved energy by not sending the rubber to Detroit for assembly. Imagine being a kid in an orchard surrounded by German POW's who had agreed to agriculture work, and trying to sort out what was happening in the world, and watching them watch that procession of what American Industry could turn out for a real war, and not a tactical one. During the fall of 1942 when my next door neighbor came home on furlough we all went apple picking, and he saw something of that industrial process. He was in the 16th Infantry Regiment, First Division, meaning he went in on Omaha D Day plus 2 hours. I have a letter from him doing the math of how many American Shells went off in an hour about 4 days after D-Day compared to the return German fire. It is hand illustrated, and referrs to what we could actually see from the apple orchard. Ratio was about 50 to 1. By Illustrations I mean what we could see on the main line tracks in Ohio complete with the orchard and our POW's and home made maple sweetner, to the ship and then to France, and then to the Normandy front line. There were perhaps two dozen men on my street in service, and there were several gold stars in windows. Believe me, everyone was involved, and not just messed around with a black-out. We made jams, peach preserves, applesauce and applebutter, and we traded that for what others could make. Everything we made released food that could go to the troops or into relief. Remember we were also feeding the British.

No one today comprehends what real mobilization means. I am not suggesting we should do that, (we probably don't need to make applebutter with home brew maple syrup) but maybe "Bush's War" ought not be paid for by the next generation, but rather we should raise taxes to pay for Bush, particularly because the rational for it is still so impossible to comprehend and Bush has been other than honest.

[Mimikatz]

I was born in the fall of 1942, so all I really remember was the blackouts, gas rationing, savings stamps, our victory garden, Roosevelt dying and VJ Day. And my Uncle coming home from the Pacific alive. I think it was easier here on the West Coast. But I do remember my parents talking about how everyone pulled together and sacrificed "for the duration," as they said.

[Mimikatz]

Oh--and better news. The Rothenberg Report puts 11 R seats into "toss-up/tilt Dem" or "lean Dem", and projects a Dem gain of 18-25 seats, maybe more than 30, basically the same ones I have except for some of the longshots. But they've added OH-12 (Tiberi) to the R Favored list.

[Orwell S.]

Thanks for that portrait Sara, was a time long before I was born but I can almost imagine it.

[freepatriot]

jodi is a part of the delusional freepi that believe there is life after presnit george

the repuglican party has proven itself to be incapable of governing, and people ain't likely to forget

bush is gonna have to admit he lost Iraq in November. by December george will be in full WHINE about his impending impeachment

Mr. Conyers gets to call his first witness in the first week of January

and scooter libby goes on trial in the third week of January

so when exactly do the voters begin to trust the repuglicans again in all of this ???

2008 is the last national election for the Grand Old Party

incompetence has it's penalties

just ask the Whig party about that

[Jodi]

Sara,

my mother has two boxes of her mothers and fathers things. I have been with her when she was looking for stuff. She showed me some ration books. I am not sure what kind of items they were for. I think they had gas coupons, and food coupons. Her dad, a lawyer, worked for the government in the ??War Time Pricing Administration Authority?? or something like that. It was because of that they were able to get a phone when phones were hard to get. It had only 4 numbers, and was a two party line. They had a garden too that my mom carried water out to in a little bucket. Momma said she worked so hard doing that but was very proud that she was helping. I have seen a Kodak picture of her in the garden.
Mothers uncle, grandmothers brother was a LT in the Phillipines, and had his right arm blown up. Also his head and shoulder was injured and his helment was blown away. He was shooting over a log and a grenade or some sort of explosion went off in front of him. He lost his right thumb, and part of his forefinger along with other injuries to his head and shoulder, and they operated and moved the remaining part of the finger around to oppose the others so he had a grip. When I would shake his hand, I was so surprised that he had a very small hand though he was a grown man, and then later I realized that it was because I was shaking only a few fingers. He was a handsome man with blond curly hair, and while very successful throughout life, he loved to garden, and mom and I would help him when we visited. My brothers wanted to ride the horses, but mom and I would visit in his garden.

When my Uncle returned home to America, and had his first free time, which was when he got off a train, up North. I can't remember where. I heard this when I was little. He went to the nearest grocery store. It was just a small store. He bought some of all of the fresh fruit and vegatables, and went outside and sat on the street curb and ate them right there.
He came home to my grandmoms house, and he was eating dinner one day, when a couple of flies got in because of kids going in and out of the screened door. My grandmom got upset, and said "oh, no, a fly." It was on the roast beef. My great uncle stood and hugged grand mom, and caught one of the flies in his left hand, scared the other off, and smiled and said "what's a fly or two?" He then carved off some more roast beef.

He always told my mom that I was the prettiest baby he had ever seen.

:)

[Sara]

Jodi, everything that was needed in the war effort was rationed, or just not available period. You had both a ration book with stamps for particular items, and you had points tokens. Some products such as fresh fruit and veggies, meat, dairy products, had weekly or monthly point changes, based on supply. Thus one week a pound of hamburger would be say 5 points, next week with a shortage, it might be 8. The whole point was to distribute the shortage equally. You could earn points back by turning in things. For instance, so many points for a pound of bacon fat. You could also exchange points as they were not registered to you.

I remember it was two pair of shoes a year -- so if you were a kid, you got them a size too big, so as to be able to wear them all year. One pair for dress, another for school, and cloth sandals with reclaimed rubber soles were not rationed. Look at the pictures -- we all were wearing them around 1944. No such thing as nylon hose, women painted their legs, including the stocking seam. Nylon had to go to parachutes.

We had no plastics in those days so we all learned how to patch old metal buckets. Bicycles and trikes were not produced for the duration, but you could buy wooden wagons for going shopping. Most canned goods were unavailable. For some reason my mom bought a dozen cans of pineapple just before rationing, and we went through long discussions about opening a can. Sugar, Coffee, Tea, -- they were rationed and very hard to find at times. Cigarettes were rationed, but Cuban Cigars were available, meaning lots of people learned to smoke cigars.

Many rationed products ended up being sent to the troops. You could send a 5 LB box (it took several months) so we made heavy cakes and molassas cookies that would survive the time -- and sent them off. You sent off for Xmas in September. We filled Red Cross boxes for civilians, a comb, toothbrush, washcloth, soap, toothpaste, first aid stuff, a little make-up, and finally a couple of small toys -- package of Jacks with ball or a yo-yo. We also collected and repaired clothes people had grown out of -- things like snow suits and winter coats, and these were dry cleaned and packed up by the Red Cross for distribution in schools. As I said, everyone was involved in something.

[Jodi]

Sara,

the mail is faster now with air transport, but you still have a deadline if you want guarantee getting packages there by Christmas. My mom is already working on my brother's boxes for various dates including Christmas. And he hasn't even left yet!

:(

One of my grandmoms has a big old aluminum cooking pot from then. Can that be right, aluminum, from that time? Anyway it looks like aluminum and it has two metal patches like big rivets in it. She keeps it on her back porch full of interesting shells and rocks.

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[cialis]

Business and finance. These two words can be very aptly used to describe the modern way of the world. Everyone is busy expanding their business and thereby increasing their finance.

[chantix]

Chantix, Chantix, Chantix. Why so popular? The answer to this often asked question is that Chantix directly works on the nicotine receptor brain cells and induces the same feeling as one does while smoking. Not to mention the care it takes in doing away with the nicotine withdrawal symptoms. Now tell me, why will it not be popular?