The Next Hurrah: The State Of Play Part II

October 21, 2006

The State Of Play Part II

by DemFromCT

The State of Play (Part I, last night) can be found here. Since we discussed the infamous October surprise, here's a history lesson as to what to term means (and no, I do not think we are invading Iran, and no, DEBKA is not a reliable source without corroboration. Just because conspiracy theory diaries get ratcheted up as things get closer to 11/7, it doesn't mean you should turn off your critical thinking.).

Originally the term meant some alakazam rabbit-from-a-hat trick that an incumbent party would unveil to keep its candidate in office. Over time the phrase has been bandied about and overused to the point that it now means any startling surprise from any direction that might somehow affect the outcome of an election.

October, says Michele Swers, a political scientist at Georgetown University, "is when the electorate begins to focus on the candidates and the issues, and voters begin to actually look at what you do and what you say."

But more importantly

A surprise works, she says, "if there's already a national mood building for a certain issue. The surprise can exacerbate the mood of the people. Anything that intensifies a national wave is helpful."

That's why there's so little chance that the GOP truly has something new that will "change everything". Iraq and Katrina have been the basis for a GOP discontent that has been building for years, and that won't dissipate in a few days.

In the meantime, while everyone focuses on the respective GOP and Dem base, John Harwood at the WSJ pays attention to the forgotten middle, that which will win this election for Democrats.

As candidates head into the final two weeks of midterm election campaigns, Democrats see an opportunity as wide as the Rocky Mountain skies. The question, here and elsewhere, is whether they can hold high ground in the place that matters most in 2006.

That place, oddly enough, appears to be the political center. Polls suggest Republicans so far have lost the center -- in overwhelming proportions. To maintain their grip on power in Congress, they need to find some way to woo a big chunk of it back in the next 17 days.

Prevailing political wisdom holds that the only things that matter are each party's "base" -- that there is no center anymore, and no more swing voters worth chasing. But look at what has happened among independent voters in the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC Poll, taken this past week: Support for Republicans has collapsed. Just 24% of them say they want President Bush's party to control Congress after Election Day. Independents disapprove of Mr. Bush's job performance by 2 to 1.

That's a big change from 2004, when Mr. Bush and John Kerry split the votes of independents. The president won for two reasons. He maintained higher allegiance within his own party -- just 6% of Republicans backed Mr. Kerry, while 11% of Democrats crossed over to support Mr. Bush -- and he generated sufficient partisan enthusiasm that Republicans matched Democrats as a proportion of the electorate.

Newt was patiently explaining to Alan Colmes last night that the R base is as enthused as the Dem base in the Gallup poll, so that meant the GOP keeps the House. What he failed to mention is that outside the base, no one cares for Republicans. That's the real election killer, and the fact that there's no GOP plan to address that (which would have had to have been formulated months ago) is the main reason why I think it's almost impossible for the GOP to win. There aren't enough evangelicals and conservatives to make up for the missing middle no matter how much money the Republicans pour into the 72 hour project, assuming that Dems come out and vote. And even a small percentage of Rs that don't show will be magnified by the loss of the middle.

Just 5% of Republicans want Democrats to take over Capitol Hill. Just 2% of Democrats want Republicans to win.

The partisan numbers are due to the most polarizing President in history, a position designed into the fabric by karl Rove. That 3% difference? That's the GOP GOTV paying for people to come out and vote D. Priceless.

October 21, 2006 at 09:19 in Contributor--DemFromCT, Elections--2006 | Permalink

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The Next Hurrah

October 21, 2006

The State Of Play Part II

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