The Next Hurrah: The State Of Play

October 20, 2006

The State Of Play

by DemFromCT

With another week under our belts, and 17 days to go, it's time for a look at the state of play. Herein are opinions based on a reading of the literature, the temperature, and the opinionati.

As of now, the Democratic wave continues to build. Fed by bad news in Iraq, and pushed by fearful Republicans, even Bush is making noises about reviewing tactics. He can't admit to reviewing strategy, but that's exactly what's going to happen next. And the only options are what we already know (partition or withdrawal), so the ISG under Baker and Hamilton won't be a magic after-the-election secret plan. It will be a humiliation for Bush, hence the after-the-election bit. But for the purposes of this post, it's important to recognize that the reason the wave exists will not dissipate any time soon.

Can Republicans recover in time without an October Surprise? Their defenses remain formidable, as outlined in this excellent post at pollster.com of the state of play:

There's a big anti-Republican wave out there. But that wave will crash up against a very stable political structure, so we won't be sure of the exact scope of Democratic gains until election night. We really don't yet know which is ultimately more important -- the size of the wave or the stability of the structure.
Mark Blumenthal and Charles Franklin make a case that the generic ballot is a good indicator of the presence of the wave; redistricting and incumbency as well as GOTV make it hard to translate that into exact numbers, so it'll be a learning experience for us all.

The size of the wave may not be predictible, but predictions will nonetheless be made. Opinions range from (R->L) delusional (NRO: Santorum wins, R's keep House), hopeful (McIntyre at RCP with a swing to the GOP), calculating (Current Rothenberg Political Report projection: Democratic gain of 18-25 seats, though we think that a significantly larger Democratic gain, in excess of 30 seats, is quite possible.) and expectant (MyDD with [House] Overall Projected Gains: 14-20 Projected Gains: 21-28). The Senate is more unpredictable, but the CW remains that the Dems take the House, the R's keep the Senate (and Santorum is history).

As noted earlier today, the GOP is doing its best to contribute to its own demise. They are not a united party, not behind Hastert and not behind Bush

The idea that there is going to be an October Surprise that'll help the GOP (created by Karl Rove or otherwise) is magical thinking, a developmental stage most of us grow out of. It's already October 21, and it hasn't happened yet. In fact, there ain't no GOP cavalry coming in to save the day in the nick of time. The only surprises are going to be worse news in Iraq and more GOP scandals. The inability to see and appreciate that separates our conservative prognosticators above from the rest. Sure, a lot can happen in 17 days to change things, but it very likely won't. And that joke of an RNC terror ad won't do squat to change the dynamics.

Speaking of Rove, the lesson of this election is going to be that his base-driven politics was a historical nightmare that turned Bush from being merely a bad President into the worst president ever, including the greatest strategic blunder (Iraq and preemptive war strategy) in modern history. American foreign policy will take a generation to recover. And should Dems take the House as expected, Rove's reputation will take a severe blow.

The media likes a horse race and not a blowout. As we see the inevitable tightening that takes place in the polls, the "GOP comeback" will be touted whenever possible (similar to the Bush September mini-bounce that amounted to nothing). But remember that any incumbent that remains <50% is in trouble and can lose. And in wave elections, things tend to break the same way in close races. As long as the generic stays where it is, the wave will still be there.

It'll be an interesting and exciting 17 days. None of this is predictive of a Dem win, but the opportunites are there (and growing). I do not see where the professionals (Amy Walter, Stu Rothenberg, e.g.) are changing their calls. In my humble opinion, we're not done with GOP scandals, and Iraq is going to be in the news every day (and none of that helps the GOP). So, if money, time and effort can do the trick, this is an election to invest in, and an election to be a part of.

October 20, 2006 at 22:48 in Contributor--DemFromCT, Elections--2006 | Permalink

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The Next Hurrah

October 20, 2006

The State Of Play

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