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October 20, 2006

Comments

Do you suppose they have some idea that the verdict in Saddam's trial will give them a boost?

If so, they're dreaming.

The real question is turnout. Some polls are so wildly different largely because they use different turnout models, based either something like enthusiasm (which suggests more Dems) or past behavior (which suggestes more Repubs). That is something we can't know until it happens.

You are absolutely right about the evils of Rovism, to which I would add that it destroyed any semblance of comity and good will in poliitcs. BTW, I really hedged, predicting somewhere between 16 and 36+ seats. I think it is really hard to tell, but we should have a clearer idea in another week. Right now it seems like there is some tightening, but mostly people are really fed up with Bush's obtuseness and stubbornness on Iraq, and that has poisoned everything else.

Cook Political Report has a new summary out. They now have, among GOP seats, 4 Lean Dem, 27 tossups, 17 Lean R, and 18 Likely R. That leaves 167 safe R seats to 183 for the Dems. And 48 competitive, 18 more potentially competitive. Glad to see they've added WA-05, but not yet NE-03, my two top picks for unexpected upsets.

And CQ has only 163 safe GOP seats, 43 competitive and 25 potentially so. New ones are added every day--AZ-01, IN-02, OH-12, WA-05 . . . .

if I recall correctly, a record number of people in the State of Connecticut turned out on a hot day in August

anybody think the voter's attention, or INTENTIONS have changed since that hot day in August ???

Americans seem to be waiting for their chance to vote (at least the ones I know are anxious)

I think we're looking at a record off-tear election turnout

and that ain't good for repuglicans

I think you guys and gals need to pass the anti-anxiety pills around. Maybe grind them up and make a casserole.

At this juncture, the best "predictor" is the state of the state and local GOTV projects. Are the phone banks getting volunteers, and if you are likely on lists, are you getting called. Every locality has different traditions -- do you have rally events, late lit drops and all -- but you generally can look at the campaigns and see if they have something on deck that looks healthy. This is especially the case with campaigns that have become newly competitive in the views of the national ranking outfits.

Jodi, not a bad recipe. Anxiety is what teams feel before the big game, and it's not all bad if it helps you focus.

(Jodi sees life through sports as metaphor - and you could do worse). ;-)

78 US boys dead in October as of today - 78! What the fuck do they think they are doing. I can't even recall how many days I've seen 20-30 Iraqis dead in a single blast. Today it was 30 more. No question what so ever there are many hundreds if not 1000+ Iraqi dead this month.

Our men are nothing but sitting ducks in a FULL BLOWN CIVIL WAR. And just yesterday I hear that the Iraqi Prime Minister is calling for cororners not to report mortality figures any longer. TAKE ONE FAT GUESS who asked him to put that order out. The insurgents are correct. It's a puppet government. It's going to fail. We need our boys home now. SEVENTY EIGHT DEAD this month, and it's only the 28th. Our worst fears have come true. I never thought it could get this bad.

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