The Next Hurrah: The GOP Is In Disarray

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October 20, 2006

The GOP Is In Disarray

Remember the CA Latino voter suppression story from yesterday? Now the Orange County GOP wants their own candidate out.

Orange County Republican leaders on Thursday called for the withdrawal of a GOP congressional candidate who has acknowledged that his campaign sent a letter threatening Hispanic immigrant voters.

County Republican Chairman Scott Baugh told The Associated Press that the party's executive committee voted unanimously to ask candidate Tan D. Nguyen to pull out.

Earlier Thursday, Nguyen said in an interview that he has fired a campaign staffer who may have been the source of a letter that falsely told Hispanics that immigrants can go to jail if they try to vote.

"I did not do this. I did not approve of any letter," said Nguyen, the challenger to Democratic U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez. Nguyen is a Vietnamese immigrant whose opposition to illegal immigration figures heavily in his underdog campaign.

Ken Blackwell, the R SoS in Ohio running for Governor, is doing so poorly that one Buckeye newspaper, The Courier, decided to unendorse him. How often does that happen?

But while Blackwell may still get some of our individual votes, he's lost our endorsement, for whatever it's worth. His total nastiness at the Monday debate with his opponent, Democrat Ted Strickland, has proven that he's really not the kind of man we need as our next governor. Personal attacks of dubious accuracy should have no place in a political campaign. As Strickland said, "Mr. Blackwell, you should be ashamed of yourself."

But both of the above examples of Republicans in disarray are just the preliminaries to the main bout. On Oct 9, we wrote about the coming GOP civil war. Apparently, it's here ahead of schedule.

Tax-cutters are calling evangelicals bullies. Christian conservatives say Republicans in Congress have let them down. Hawks say President Bush is bungling the war in Iraq. And many conservatives blame Representative Mark Foley's sexual messages to teenage pages.

With polls showing Republican control of Congress in jeopardy, conservative leaders are pointing fingers at one other in an increasingly testy circle of blame for potential Republican losses this fall.

"It is one of those rare defeats that will have many fathers," said David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union, expressing the gloomy view of many conservatives about the outcome on Election Day. "And they will all be somebody else."

The failure of conservative attempts at governance at home (see Katrina) and the collapse of neo-conservative foreign policy abreoad (see Iraq, if you can bear to) has lead to two reactions. First, in order to minimize losses, Bush and the GOP will push "Elect Democrats and you will die" as their only message.

With top Republican strategists now privately predicting substantial House losses, President Bush and top GOP officials plan to spend the final days of the 2006 campaign attempting to rally partisans and limit conservative defections with dire warnings about the consequences of a Democratic Congress.

Amid predictions that demoralized conservative voters might sit out the election, Bush and other senior Republicans will escalate charges that Democrats will raise taxes, weaken national security and liberalize social policies. Bush struck those themes in campaign appearances yesterday in Pennsylvania and Virginia, and White House senior adviser Karl Rove said he "will consistently refresh that message" between now and Election Day.

And more importantly, the GOP coalition will break apart into feuding tribes, each blaming the other for why they're losing. It is inevitable; it cannot be stopped. This line summarizes it well enough, from David Frum.

"There is a bit of a battle between people who say, Hey, your tax cuts wrecked our war and people who say, Hey, your war wrecked our tax cuts," said David Frum, a former Bush speechwriter who was among the war's proponents.

Actually, your war wrecked our country, and that's why you folks are losing. But at some level, everyone gets it. Iraq's a loser for the GOP, and it's going to bring regime change in this country as surely as it did abroad (Spain and Italy as much as Iraq).

If McCain thinks it's going to help him in 2008 to ask for more troops and to continue to support Bush in every way he can, he's a fool. Iraq and Bush are going to be anvils around his neck, too. Hmmm... which side in the GOP civil war are you taking, John?

October 20, 2006 at 08:50 in Contributor--DemFromCT, Elections--2006, Ideas and Ideology, Republicans | Permalink

Comments

Good riddance.

Posted by: eCAHNomics | October 20, 2006 at 09:06

Let's hope this feuding before the election hurts their efforts to rally the base.

On another note, has our side already peaked too early?

I just saw at TPM Election Central that Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY) of Foley fame has regained his lead over Davis. ANd Lieberman has opened a big lead over Lamont.

Posted by: KdmFromPhila | October 20, 2006 at 09:26

True, true.

"Elect Democrats and you will die."

The powerful will be brought down. The connected will be cut loose. The chosen will reselected. Fingers of bleame will point everywhere.

The Kings are dead. Long live the Kings.

And the cycle begins again.

Birth
Growth
Life in full power
Decline
Decay
Death
..
Birth

It is always thus, in a system of government where the politicans have only one aim; that is to be elected and relected. And where the only sure way (usually) is to buy TV Ads for which they sell their souls as well as indenture the very children of America.
The people that exalt and revel in this system are primarily the shallow ones that have a knack for trading souls, and buying and selling children.

These people in office fall prey first to the greedy blackness in their souls, and then to the greedy blackness of the world. Some last a long time, others go much quicker, but the cycle always renews.
There is never a lack of candidates wishing wealth, power, and prestige.
For a man, I think elected office is like a fountain of youth and beauty might be for a woman. Indeed a sexual stimulant, and even a climatic episode.
For a man, power is beauty. The ability to attract admirers of both policy and body.
The universal currency of power is more than addictive, it is overwhelmingly seductive and ensnaring.

Old Politicans and old News Anchors never retire voluntarily. There must be a illness, or a scandal, or a disaster. 60 Minutes will be soon be shown live(?) from the morgue.

So sweet the sound of "You are wonderful." "I want to be like you." "Please you are the only one that understands." "I want to hear what you have to say." This sound beckons most with little or no resistance.

There are some women, perhaps Hillary will be the best example of this generation, that are very similar to men, with perhaps a bit more verve which is needed because they are resented by both men and women for assuming a dominant position.

And all are illusionists, magicians who say "I serve you." "I listen to you." All the while sharpening their twirling knives and saws as they prepare to feast at the table and in the trough on America's substance.

(I am tired, so bear with me. Time sometimes is stopped or reverses even, but the body goes on tirer and tirer.)

Posted by: Jodi | October 20, 2006 at 09:39

Shorter Jodi:

~~1994: Elect Republicans, for reform!~~

2006: Hey, everyone does it!

Posted by: Kagro X | October 20, 2006 at 10:41

If I were the Democrats I would create a new ad by taking excerpts from this very ad and then intersperse them with regular Americans talking about their fears of continuing with a do-nothing, rubber-stamp, GOP controlled Congress. I think its time for the Democrats to go toe to toe with the GOP with a light hearted...but very pointed "Fear Factor" campaign.

I just don't think fear can work this time if the Democrats will hit back. Karl Rove has made a career of taking his opponents strengths and turning them into liabilities...and its time someone return the favor. His house of cards is ready to fall.

See a tongue-in-cheek visual of Karl and the boys singing some of their favorite "Church & State" hymns...here:

www.thoughttheater.com

Posted by: Daniel DiRito | October 20, 2006 at 11:44

Looks like the Tester vs Burns race has tightened with the new poll and Lierbeman has a 17% lead over Lamont. And Reynolds is back up with a lead over Davis in NY even after the Foley scandal.

This election is going to be a lot closer. The senate was always looking tough but the grounds for optimism needs to be tempered. The House will also be close with many races coming down to the wire.

I am spending this weekend volunteering for two long shot candidates in Repub leaning districts.

Posted by: ab initio | October 20, 2006 at 11:56

McCain may mean to distance himself from Republicans with Unity 08...maybe with Joe Lieberman as a running mate.

Posted by: LindyH | October 20, 2006 at 12:29

it's going to bring regime change in this country as surely as it did abroad (Spain and Italy as much as Iraq).

and England soon

Posted by: obsessed | October 20, 2006 at 12:43

The Republicans have had the built-in conflict between the lower middle and middle class evangelicals who are drawn to the conservative social agenda the Republicans advertise, and the real power center of the Republican Party, the corporate interests, the Finance industry interests, Real Estate and Developer interests, etc., who have only passing interest in any social agenda. It has always been a tight wire act for them to keep those two factions working in tandum, and at some juncture it will schism.

Our problem as Democrats is we really cannot afford to offer many in either of these factions a safe political harbor, because neither are at all a good fit for the floating Democratic Coalition. We have no problems with sub-factions of these groups -- Clearly an Evangelical that looks like Jimmy Carter is an excellent fit inside the Democratic Party, but then Carter is now a leader of Baptists who have disassociated from the Southern Baptist Convention. Likewise there are individuals within the Corporate and Finance Worlds with Democratic inclinations, (Afterall, Jay Rockefeller and George Soros are Democrats,) But the Democratic Party has to draw the line at being bought out by K-Street in the same way the Republicans have been.

What heartens me right now are things like the Moderate Republicans making the switch to Democrats in Kansas -- and if they win, it will make that state a two party place, and it will substantially disable the true crazies -- the Creation Science folk, for instance. In my own state I see the DFL getting smart, and fielding moderate but smart candidates in the Suburbs and Exurbs, where we picked up 13 House Seats in 2004. We can't win as just an inner-city and labor party anymore, the net has to be spread more broadly. But the most interesting think I am picking up this year is these changes in approach.

Posted by: Sara | October 20, 2006 at 13:19

all polls will inevitably tighten. But the 30% who havent't decided will break one way or the other and not split.

Posted by: DemFromCT | October 20, 2006 at 13:52

looks the the GOP ad is a fake.

link

Posted by: DemFromCT | October 20, 2006 at 16:03

DemFromCT,

why do you say the 30% won't split.

My "spidy sense" doesn't say that.

Posted by: Jodi | October 20, 2006 at 16:21

1. becuase they already know the incumbent and those who haven' decided generally break against the incumbent. To put it another way, it's the explanation for why any incumbent below 50% is in trouble.
2. because in wave elections they go one way or another and this is a wave election. You can see it in the districts in play (all but one or two of the 55 or so are R districts). That doesn't predict a win as it doesn't tell you how big the wave is (or how strong the levees), but it is a wave.

Posted by: DemFromCT | October 20, 2006 at 17:06

still trying to bring jodi into the reality based world ???

why ???

let jodi rave on

some of us find her "intelligence" very amusing

I can't wait to see her explanations for what went wrong

Posted by: freepatriot | October 21, 2006 at 01:20

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