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October 18, 2006

More Money Debate, More Macro Information

In this Saturday post, we talked about the building Dem wave, and whether and how to fund expanding the playing field. Stan Greenberg, the Democratic pollster, follows up with a TPM Cafe article today expanding on the theme.

You cannot have a wave like this without reshaping the current battles. The races where Democrats are close or ahead are going to be won by a good margin. Republican money is going to have to rush to protect their safer seats, not these on the front lines.

In fact, Democracy Corps will release a poll today that will show the Democrats with a growing, stunning margin. The new shift - beyond what we showed last week - is driven by a greatly increased anger about Iraq. It is being increasingly nationalized and politicized, and we are about to have an election where a war gone badly wrong is center-stage.

That can't be good news for the GOP, still reeling from Foley-Hastert-Reynolds, Ney, Cunningham and other tales of incompetence and greed.

The risk is that our activists and donors and party leaders are satisfied with winning when there is an opportunity for a real majority. The difference between governing with a 5-seat majority and a 25-seat majority is night and day. In one scenario you spend your life trying to keep the 5 moderate Democrats from voting with the Republicans; in the other, you are able to achieve a unity that can really enact progressive things.

The last thing we want to see the day after the election are 10 seats where the Republicans were able to hold on by a 100 votes.

I don't spare anybody in this call for change. The big donors from 2004 haven't stepped up; the DNC is hardly a player; activist on-line groups are doing impressive things but operating in fewer states and districts. The two party committees have raised historic amounts of money and now have to make choices about how much debt and how broad a playing field.

This ain't aimed at us, necessarily, , it's aimed at the money men and the well-heeled througout the country. Whether he's right or not is up for debate, but what's clear is that there's literally a historic opportunity here.

This is also a moment for Democrats to let voters know what they stand for and what they want to do for the country. There are a lot of voters ready to vote for change who would be relieved to discover that Democrats want to rise above the partisan polarization to do the people's business. That means Medicare, negotiating lower drug and health care costs, raising the minimum wage instead of congressional salaries, a new direction in Iraq and working for energy independence.

Yeah, we know. We talked about that this morning. Stan gets paid big bucks to say that, I'm just a volunteer blogger ;-). In any case, food for thought for all of us who care about our country

October 18, 2006 at 15:14 in Contributor--DemFromCT, Elections--2006 |

Comments

Dick Morris gives up.

link

Posted by: DemFromCT | October 18, 2006 at 15:36

Oh, no -- Reverse Barometer Morris predicts our victory. We're doomed.

I read Greenberg's article over at TPM Cafe this morning, and of course found it cheering, but also a tiny bit puzzling.

First, as many over there have said, his "the DNC is absent" seems just a bit churlish, since it was the DNC's insistence (against heavy protest from Greenberg's pals) on putting challengers into unlikely seats that's created the situation where a huge wave is a possibility. (No way there'd be a hint of a race in WY or ID otherwise) I agree that, at this point, throwing money at winnable races does take total priority over any future party building (and I assume that's why Dean is talking about taking out large loans now). But to not even mention the DNC except in a bitch-aside seems wholly unappreciative.

Beyond that, I'm not sure just what Stan is suggesting be done. Does he mean we should take for granted every single race where a Dem leads now (like the two non-Nancy CT races), withdraw all money from them, and throw it anyplace we're within 5-8 points? What are the parameters? Is there some magic cut-off -- at either end -- where you know spending money is pointless? He's a bit vague on this. We all think the answer is Spend exactly where it'll do the most good, but isn't figuring out just where that is supposed to be his job? I'm not sure he's done it specifically enough, at least not here, but he's on our case about it.

And what about all the articles I'm STILL reading today, saying we're hopelessly outclassed by the GOP wired-and-ground game (see The New York Observer, and front page at Kos)? Granting everything always depends somewhat on execution, which best describes our range of opportunity -- crushing letdown to small win, or small win to landslide?

Posted by: demtom | October 18, 2006 at 16:03

small win to landslide.

I think the ground game stuff is all about making sure the captain of the other team doesn't show weakness to their players. G

Greenberg's advice is "borrow the money" and it looks like the DNC will - and put it in the senate. What'll happen in the House is another story.

Oh, well. NBC poll out tonight, democracy Corps poll out later this afternoon... here we go again.

Posted by: DemFromCT | October 18, 2006 at 16:08

I'm curious about the "absence of big donors". Are they unhappy all this progress has been made (recruiting, funding, promoting) by people other than themselves? Or is it just a typical off-year lull?

Post election, assuming at least one chamber takeover, the press will look for intra Dem party tension to amplify - the left vs. the rest, the elites vs. the new activists, etc. We need to be prepared for that.

Posted by: crab nebula | October 18, 2006 at 16:22

Here's how I see it. GOTV is important everywhere. Beyond that, since all evidence is that attack ads aren't working so well, the marginal value of another $500,000 in any of the CT races, the PA races, probably the IN races and NM-01, is worth much less than the marginal value of $250,000 to two second tier races, or exceptional third tier races, particularly in cheap markets. So put money into in AZ-01, CA-11, CO-04 and 05, ID-01, MN-01, NE-03, WA-05, WY-AL and all the upstate NY races where good Dem candidates have a real chance if they get their message out. That's how we get to 30 seats.

BTW, the DCCC offers to quadruple your money.

Posted by: Mimikatz | October 18, 2006 at 16:33

On the "big donors," some are sitting on their pique, others like Soros are said to be funding long-range projects.

Posted by: Mimikatz | October 18, 2006 at 16:35

thanks, Mimi - I'm guessing the piqued ones will be very jealous if we pull this off without them. Did anyone see that Soros gave Wes Clark's PAC 75k? wow.

Posted by: crab nebula | October 18, 2006 at 17:27

i thought all big time donors only supported the party of 'money rules' and screw democracy?

Posted by: ... | October 18, 2006 at 18:02

Actually the Dems are even or slightly ahead with people in the top income category, IIRC. Some people with money vote and give according to their values, not self-interest, or have a broad view of their self-interest, believing that a society without great extremes in wealth and poverty is more stable and pleasant in the long run.

Posted by: Mimikatz | October 18, 2006 at 19:23

What's at stake here is a small victory vs a landslide.

The attack ads aren't working against Dems, but they are against Repubs by tying them to Bush and Iraq. For that, more money in big amounts would make a big difference. And the big donors from the past--Soros, Lewis, et al--are stupidly sitting this out because they feel burned that Kerry didn't win. ACT and the Media Fund were huge successess, and the reason Kerry didn't win was Kerry, and DESPITE the 527's.

The DNC is giving so little money it's laughable. They don't currently have much talent on the ground, they're not able to take advantage of the growing wave, they aren't a big player in the GOTV efforts, they aren't as active as in the past in the state-level coordinated campaigns, and Dean is largely on the sidelines in the strategizing. The 50 state strategy was good for an off-year, but now's the time for the 50 DISTRICT strategy, and they're barely in the game.

As for spending, the idea should be--and I believe it is-- to continue solid funding of the races that have been targets for a long time--CT, Heather Wilson, Clay Shaw, etc--but then to throw money at races in the second and third tiers. Most of those incumbents don't have the infrastucture in place to fend off a late challenge, especially with support for the war tightening around their throats. We should keep the pressure on the expected targets, and get enough money so that we're not chosing between hoping we win some of the top targets and expanding the playing field.

Posted by: DHinMI | October 18, 2006 at 23:41

Why all the complaints for people who have given generously? I think it is kind of ungrateful.

That is strange. You are biting the hands that are feeding you. Supporting these blogs and forums on the interent.

No one has unlimited money. They are assured of a Democratic win, and a very good win at that. They are saving their money for 2008.

But no one is keeping the people that are complaining so much from giving til it hurts.

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