(How) The Democrats Should Take Congress

By Mimikatz

As DemfromCT has been posting, things are not looking good for the Republicans.  Indeed, Charles Franklin finds a slight upturn in the Democratic advantage in generic polling after the trends seemed to be drifting toward the GOP last week.  A raft of House polls was released by Zogby and others (see here)  mostly confirming previous polling.  The Dems remain ahead in independent polls in more than the 15 races needed to take the House, with the newest entries in the list NY-26, where two very recent polls have Tom Reynolds behind by 5 and 7 points, after having been ahead by 3 points just last week, and FL-16, (Open-Foley), where Mahoney was 7 points ahead of Joe Negron, who would inherit Foley's votes. As detailed below, it now seems that the Dems are leading in 15-18 races, very close in 5-8 others, and closing the gap in several others.  Every day new GOP seats are put on the endangered list.  Hotline's House rankings now have no Democratic seats until No. 30, and only  6 Dems among the 50 races most likely to change party. 

Two developments are conspiring against the GOP here.  First is, of course, the fallout from the Foley scandal, which, like Katrina last summer, provides an easily graspable and indelible image of a feckless GOP incapable of taking resposibility, managing a crisis and taking decisive action, more bent on protecting their own power and privilege than protecting the people they are supposed to be serving.  Speaker Dennis Hastert came across as particularly tone deaf, alternately blaming George Soros, Bill Clinton and shadowy Dem and/or gay conspiracies for his own failure to investigate and take action.  And there are reportedly more pages out there able to testify about improper conduct.  The contrast between Jabba the Hastert and grandmother Nancy Pelosi, whom the GOP has tried to demonize, was striking, as Pelosi had no trouble identifying that the problem was a failure of oversight and a failure to protect.  Will the scandal boost Dem candidates with women and Dem women candidates, and will security moms from 2004 be looking at dangers a little closer to home this time?  If so, it could tip several races.

The Foley scandal and the GOP leadership's casual attitude toward it has also exposed the rifts between believing evangelicals and the GOP leadership, including professional Religious Right politicians, who are clearly more concerned with perpetuating power than actually living or advancing "traditional values."  Even before Foley the Pew Report showed the Dems gaining ground on ethical issues (+ 14 Dem) as well as on which party best represents "people like me" (+28 Dem).   Most striking were the gains on which party can best manage the government (+10 Dem), where the Dems now mirror the advantage the GOP had in 1994.

But Iraq remains the Poster Situation for Republican denial, incompetence and refusal to change in the face of adverse outcomes.  The image of Condoleeza Rice exiting her plane in Baghdad in a bullet-proof vest after circling until it was deemed safe only underscored the disaster Iraq has become for the GOP (to say nothing of the Iraqis) and gave the lie to her claims that things were improving there.

Finally comes late word that Susan Ralston, formerly Jack Abramoff's assistant before she went to work for Karl Rove, she who routed Matt Cooper's calls and kept Abramoff on top of things, has resigned amid allegations that she was a conduit for information between the Rover and Abramoff.

Below the fold is the latest on specific races.

Polling linked above shows the Dems leading in the open seats in AZ-08, CO-07, FL-16, IL-06, OH-18, and TX-22, while Zogby shows the MN-06 race tightening.  If anyone can benefit from the Foley scandal, it should be longtime child advocate and Dem candidate Patty Wetterling in the latter race, shown behind Foley in several stock photos.  The Dems are well ahead in the three Indiana races, in IN-02, 08 and 09, where voter dissatisfaction with the GOP continues.  Hastert cancelled a fundraiser for Sodrel in IN-09.  Joe Sestak seems to be rising in PA-07 (and raising the dough), while Lois Murphy and Gerlach trade places in PA-06.  The biggest Dem lead is in PA-10, where Chris Carney leads Don Sherwood (who apologized for having a mistress but denied reports that he choked her).  The Dems also appear to be closing in OH-01 and OH-15, where Mary Jo Kilroy is tying Deborah Pryce, a member of the GOP leadership, to Foley.  No new word on OH-02 (Wulsin v. Schmidt).  This one may depend on the candidates' fundrasing abilities, since Schmidt can't expect much help from the RNCC at this point.

Already discussed is RNCC Chair Tom Reynolds' loss of his lead in NY-26.  Whether that is temporary remains to be seen.  Also potentially affected are Randy Kuhl in NY-29, who faced allegations of domestic violence in 2004 and who recently drew guffaws from a Rotary lunch when he touted Katrina as illustrating GOP speed in getting help to victims, and, possibly, NY-20, where Dem Kirsten Gillebrand remains well behind Mike Sweeney, as well as NY-24 and 25.  Polling has shown Rob Simmons and Chris Shays in CT-02 and 04 as both ahead and behind their Dem challengers.  A Dem poll had Chris Murphy a point ahead of Johnson in CT-05, but the R poll has her 10 points ahead.  CT remains volatile.

Moving South, Dem Ken Lucas was again behind in the Zogby poll in KY-04, after being ahead earlier.  This race, where the polls close early (as in Indiana), will be a good "tell" on election night,  If Lucas is winning, good for the Dems.  If R Anne Northrup is losing to Yarmouth in KY-03, it will be a very long night for the GOP.  Dem Phil Kellam still leads in VA-02 over Thelma Drake, although his lead is narrower in the Zogby poll.  In NC-11 Dem Heath Shuler continues to lead in the Zogby poll, and a Dem poll has netroots favorite Larry Kissell pulling almost even with Robin Hayes in NC-08.  In addition to FL-16, a Dem poll has banker Christine Jennings leading in FL-13, Katherine Harris' old seat.

The surprise in the Zogby poll was Mike Whalen's 13 point lead over Dem Bruce Braley in IA-01.  Most polls had shown a Braley lead, and this race bears watching.  Also surprising was Dem Patsy Madrid's 10 point lead over Heather Wilson in NM-01.  The Albuquerque paper had Madrid with a one point lead earlier, so this is almost certainly high, although the race seems to be trending in Madrid's favor.

Among the Western longshots, Bush was in California to stump before small crowds for Pombo in CA-11 and Doolittle in CA-04, while Cheney campaigned for Barbara Cubin in WY-AL and Sali in ID-01.  These four are races that should have been safe for the R's.  Expect Angie Paccione to have broken fundraising records in CO-04, where Marilyn Musgrave is fighting for her life.  A D poll had the race tied.  And watch CO-05 as well, where the Club for Growth is facing allegations it coordinated with the Republican candidate.  WA-08 bears watching as one of the races where, as Todd says, will Dave Reichert's background as a sheriff be trumped by Darcy Burner's gender?

Coming next:  The 3Q fundraising numbers!

Comments

[Mimikatz]

I see I forgot to mention NH-02, where Paul Hodes continues to campaign hard on the war and to break fundraising records. Although not rated high in the pundit rankings, he should be in the top 20 Dem finishers on Nov 8.

[Mimikatz]

Hodes should be among the top 20 Dem challengers on Nov 8.

More on GOP and evangelicals here. More on Dem efforts linking their opponents to the irresponsibility shown by Foley and the GOP leadership here (Hotline).

[Mimikatz]

On the OH-15 race, this is really funny. It doesn't say Mary Jo Kilroy approved it, but I can't imagine she doesn't at least like it.

I'll stop commenting on my own thread now.

[jwp]

nice summary, and nice details

big picture, I think Dems need to learn a calm and confident tone

we are too strident, or vacillating

the subliminal hum that the public hears -- especially the public that does not pay close attention -- is not reassuring

we need to sound more worldly, more wise, more adult

then we will be trusted

[ab initio]

Although there is a large national component to this election, its basically many local races with their own complexities.

I am not sure how many candidates will be able to fuse Iraq, Katrina, Foley, NIE, Abramoff into a seamless narrative against their Repub opponent. With the Repubs going very negative with made up stuff do the Dem candidates have the rapid response teams and the cash to refute and attack back? This will be very important as the TV channels are going to be burned with competing ads over the next few weeks. I really like what Tester and Webb are doing with response to attack ads.

Very likely this election will hinge on turnout. The Dem activists are charged up. Can they get their less enthusiastic neighbors to show up? The die is getting cast. Absentee ballots will be heading out soon. Many decisions have already been made. And others are now talking to their family and friends as they make up their minds. I hope there is a Blue wave.

[DemFromCT]

This a very nationalized election, especially in the House. See Pew.

Iraq Looms Large in Nationalized Election

The survey finds that a majority of voters (51%) say national issues will matter more than local concerns in their vote for Congress. Just 23% say local matters will be more important to their vote. And among those who see national issues as paramount, the situation in Iraq is by far the most important concern; fully 51% cite Iraq as being most important (or second most important) factor in their vote, compared with 37% who mention terrorism, and 35% who cite the economy.

[ab initio]

DemfCT, No doubt national issues play a heavy role but the race is between two local candidates. A lot is going to depend on which candidate has better local networks and campaign organization. And how the incumbent is perceived. Of course national sentiment will provide the rising tide that will hopefully raise all the Dem boats.

[Vadranor]

The incumbent in NY-20 is JOHN Sweeney.

[kaleidescope]

You forgot WI-08, which Chris Bowers this week moved from "toss up" to "toss up/leans Dem". Democrat Kagen is able to self finance and is now ahead in the polls of this traditionally Republican district around Green Bay. Bowers notes some worries about turnout among Dems.

You can hardly be blamed for forgetting this one, since there are now so many districts competitive it's hard to keep track of them all.

[jonnybutter]

Thanks for the summary, Mimikatz.

OH-02 (Wulsin v. Schmidt)

I realize the odds a little on the high side, but this would be a really sweet one to pick up.

[Jodi]

jwp,

yes.

[Mimikatz]

I haven't seen an independent poll for WI-08, although Kagen was ahead in a Dem poll.

On the Dems and their seamless narrative, here is the text of a radio (i.e., cheap) ad anyone could adapt, from Hotline:

ANNCR: What is going on in Washington? Our troops are sent to war without proper body armor, members of Congress like Deborah Pryce gave themselves $30,000 in pay raises while running up the largest deficit in American history.
Deborah Pryce's friend Mark Foley is caught using his position to take advantage of 16 year old pages. Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert looked the other way when he was warned of Foley's predatory behavior. Deborah Pryce is one of the top Republicans in Congress. No wonder Pryce refused to criticize Hastert for ignoring the Foley problem. No wonder she won't call for Foley to resign. Now Pryce is protecting Hastert, even though he protected a sex predator?.

Republican leaders were more concerned about protecting politicians than protecting teenagers.

Deborah Pryce is part of the problem in Congress.

It's time for change.

It is evidently running only on Christian radio stations. Stakeholder has more, as does Josh Marshall.