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October 06, 2006


I see I forgot to mention NH-02, where Paul Hodes continues to campaign hard on the war and to break fundraising records. Although not rated high in the pundit rankings, he should be in the top 20 Dem finishers on Nov 8.

Hodes should be among the top 20 Dem challengers on Nov 8.

More on GOP and evangelicals here. More on Dem efforts linking their opponents to the irresponsibility shown by Foley and the GOP leadership here (Hotline).

On the OH-15 race, this is really funny. It doesn't say Mary Jo Kilroy approved it, but I can't imagine she doesn't at least like it.

I'll stop commenting on my own thread now.

nice summary, and nice details

big picture, I think Dems need to learn a calm and confident tone

we are too strident, or vacillating

the subliminal hum that the public hears -- especially the public that does not pay close attention -- is not reassuring

we need to sound more worldly, more wise, more adult

then we will be trusted

Although there is a large national component to this election, its basically many local races with their own complexities.

I am not sure how many candidates will be able to fuse Iraq, Katrina, Foley, NIE, Abramoff into a seamless narrative against their Repub opponent. With the Repubs going very negative with made up stuff do the Dem candidates have the rapid response teams and the cash to refute and attack back? This will be very important as the TV channels are going to be burned with competing ads over the next few weeks. I really like what Tester and Webb are doing with response to attack ads.

Very likely this election will hinge on turnout. The Dem activists are charged up. Can they get their less enthusiastic neighbors to show up? The die is getting cast. Absentee ballots will be heading out soon. Many decisions have already been made. And others are now talking to their family and friends as they make up their minds. I hope there is a Blue wave.

This a very nationalized election, especially in the House. See Pew.

Iraq Looms Large in Nationalized Election

The survey finds that a majority of voters (51%) say national issues will matter more than local concerns in their vote for Congress. Just 23% say local matters will be more important to their vote. And among those who see national issues as paramount, the situation in Iraq is by far the most important concern; fully 51% cite Iraq as being most important (or second most important) factor in their vote, compared with 37% who mention terrorism, and 35% who cite the economy.

DemfCT, No doubt national issues play a heavy role but the race is between two local candidates. A lot is going to depend on which candidate has better local networks and campaign organization. And how the incumbent is perceived. Of course national sentiment will provide the rising tide that will hopefully raise all the Dem boats.

The incumbent in NY-20 is JOHN Sweeney.

You forgot WI-08, which Chris Bowers this week moved from "toss up" to "toss up/leans Dem". Democrat Kagen is able to self finance and is now ahead in the polls of this traditionally Republican district around Green Bay. Bowers notes some worries about turnout among Dems.

You can hardly be blamed for forgetting this one, since there are now so many districts competitive it's hard to keep track of them all.

Thanks for the summary, Mimikatz.

OH-02 (Wulsin v. Schmidt)

I realize the odds a little on the high side, but this would be a really sweet one to pick up.



I haven't seen an independent poll for WI-08, although Kagen was ahead in a Dem poll.

On the Dems and their seamless narrative, here is the text of a radio (i.e., cheap) ad anyone could adapt, from Hotline:

ANNCR: What is going on in Washington? Our troops are sent to war without proper body armor, members of Congress like Deborah Pryce gave themselves $30,000 in pay raises while running up the largest deficit in American history.
Deborah Pryce's friend Mark Foley is caught using his position to take advantage of 16 year old pages. Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert looked the other way when he was warned of Foley's predatory behavior. Deborah Pryce is one of the top Republicans in Congress. No wonder Pryce refused to criticize Hastert for ignoring the Foley problem. No wonder she won't call for Foley to resign. Now Pryce is protecting Hastert, even though he protected a sex predator?.

Republican leaders were more concerned about protecting politicians than protecting teenagers.

Deborah Pryce is part of the problem in Congress.

It's time for change.

It is evidently running only on Christian radio stations. Stakeholder has more, as does Josh Marshall.

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