Holding Steady

by DemFromCT

New Gallup:

Just two weeks before Election Day, poll results continue to signal that
Republicans could lose control of one or both chambers of Congress.

The latest USA TODAY/Gallup national poll, taken over the weekend, shows
that:

•Thirty-eight percent of the 675 likely voters questioned said the U.S.
House of Representatives member from their district does not deserve
re-election. That number has never been higher. Two weeks ago it stood at
33%.

•Asked what will make the biggest difference in their vote for Congress, 43%
of likely voters said "national issues" — also the highest that figure has
reached.

•On the generic question of whether they favor the Democrat or Republican
candidate in their district, 54% of likely voters chose the Democrat and 41%
the Republican.

That 13 percentage-point gap is well below the 23-point advantage Democrats
held in the previous poll, but matches the advantage that Republicans held
with two weeks to go before the landmark 1994 election when they swept
control of Congress. (note: volatile still)

Also, Chuck Todd figures that Nancy Pelosi looks like the new Speaker. Todd's a non-partisan, and one of the best handicappers.

It now looks as if the Democrats are poised to win the 15 seats they need to win control of Congress. The question is: Can the battle-tested incumbents who have run the strongest campaigns -- Reps. Rob Simmons, Jim Gerlach and Heather Wilson -- withstand the Democratic tide? Their performance will determine whether Democrats can cobble together a real governing majority. But the fact that they're all currently ranked outside the top 15 is a sign of the Republicans' woes.

If a sizable wave emerges, take a look at Anne Northup's and Jon Porter's races. They have weaker Democratic opponents than in the past, but still represent swing districts -- and should be vulnerable in a wave.

Finally, in On Waves and Stability - Part II, Mark Blumenthal discusses the enthusiasm gap.

Comments

[Jodi]

Ahh DemFromCT,

you become the master of predicting/stating undertainty.