From the new NBC/WSJ poll:
Public support for Republicans' control of the U.S. Congress has eroded to its lowest point since the party took over 12 years ago. And with just 19 days until the midterm elections, both President George W. Bush and his party are in worse shape with voters than Democrats were in the October before they lost their House and Senate majorities in 1994.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll shows that voters' approval of Congress has fallen to 16% from 20% since early September, while disapproval has risen to 75% from 65%. That 16% approval statistically matches Congress's lowest point in the 17 years the Journal and NBC have polled, set in April 1992 at the height of a congressional scandal involving members' overdrafts from their House bank.
Every new story, be it about Ney, Cunningham, Hastert, how bad the Iraq civil war is going, or simply newest poll discussion is another day of not focusing on GOP talking points, none of which people really care about. How much money has the GOP spent on "terra and taxes" commercials and what good have they done?
By 52% to 37%, voters say they want Democrats rather than Republicans to control Congress after the Nov. 7 election. That wide 15-point Democratic advantage is another record in the history of the Journal/NBC poll.
Also, the result marks the first time that voters' preference for one party has exceeded 50%. In October 1994, just before voters ousted Democrats' majorities, they said they preferred a Republican-controlled Congress by a six-point margin, 44% to 38%. Back then, voters were split over President Bill Clinton, with 46% approving of his performance and 45% disapproving. Mr. Bush's job-approval rating, which had crept up to 42% in early September, has fallen back to 38%. A 57% majority disapproves of his performance.
There's trouble there for the GOP, and all the fake confidence ginned up by the WH can't hide the sweat behind closed doors.
Let the warnings about complacency, false assumptions and overconfidence ring out. After all, polls don't win elections, field and money does. But while we debate those things, the polls continue to set records in terms of rejection of the GOP and their agenda and performance. As a famous President once said,
"There's an old saying in Tennessee -- I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee -- that says, fool me once, shame on -- shame on you. Fool me -- you can't get fooled again."
The country feels the same way.
Let the warnings about complacency, false assumptions and overconfidence ring out. After all, polls don't win elections, field and money does.
as I recall, presnit bush was real confident that we would win in Iraq too
false bravado don't win wars, and it don't win elections
Posted by: freepatriot | October 18, 2006 at 19:11
actually, MSNBC's headline is better than the WSJ.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15319792/
Big Democratic wins likely on Election Day
NBC/WSJ poll: Public's opinion of GOP hits record low
Posted by: DemFromCT | October 18, 2006 at 19:17
But going in without enough troops and commitment will lose you wars. Go Dems!
See here form Charlie Cook.
Posted by: Mimikatz | October 18, 2006 at 19:19
New polls from Majority Watch/Constituent Dynamics. These are really wild.
They have large leads for Hall in NY-19, Gillebrand in NY-20, Maffei in NY-25 and Massa in NY-29--so big they are pretty suspect. However, Chris Bowwers at MyDD recently toured upstate, where he grew up and still has family, and said that the change was palpable, and the Dems are picking up steam. It is Iraq, Iraq, Iraq, plus the incompetence shown by the House leadership. It is not inconceivable for the Dems to knock off all the upstate Pubs.
Oh, and 3 point leads for Bean in IL-08 and Dan Seals in IL-10 only 2 pts behind, 46-44(!), another Dem sleeper race.
Posted by: Mimikatz | October 18, 2006 at 19:32
i hope to god this translates into democratic seats
but
i am not positive it will.
the voters have been for years, and remain, uninvolved and extremely poorly informed in large numbers.
this leaves them susceptible to commonplace psychological manipulation in the form of political ads on teevee.
this does not create a circumstance in which stable judgments can be made from current polling data.
but i am hoping for the bestest and the mostest for our country - which this time is a democratic victory.
Posted by: orionATl | October 18, 2006 at 21:08
political ads have been running and GOP numbers keep dropping. Only GOTV can save the GOP now.
Posted by: DemFromCT | October 18, 2006 at 21:14
It's not Get OUT the Vote; it's KEEP Out the Vote. Supress the vote, gimmick the numbers when you can, make sure Democratic precincts don't have enough working machines.
The razor thin margins make me very nervous. GOP chicanery can overcome 2-4% margins.
Posted by: CaseyL | October 18, 2006 at 21:31
I don't know how's going to pan out, nor does anybody else. But what's clear is that the narrative has changed. The MSM is reporting this; it isn't hiding it. It isn't defending the thugs to the degree it used to. It smells blood.
I remember one afternoon in Cancun. I was reading on the beach, and I looked out into the gulf and saw a splash and then blood and then lots more blood. It was a dolphin being attacked by sharks, and by the end there was a lot of blood and a lot of sharks. And we had to stay out of the water for the rest of the day. The MSM smell blood. It's their bread and butter, like Dracula's.
I think for the term we will have the press more or less on our side at the level of the horse-race narrative. Unless Rove can engineer a come-from-behind move, things will only get worse for the thugs.
We live in hope.
Posted by: knut wicksell | October 18, 2006 at 21:58
Posted by: Daniel DiRito | October 18, 2006 at 22:49
Are there any reporting on GOTV efforts and the ground game for the different races?
Posted by: ab initio | October 18, 2006 at 23:52
Hopefully, we win in Nov.
I think there is a chance for realignment -- which, in my view, means people making new self-identification with a party. Some independents becoming Dems, some Repubs becoming independent. Young people identifying as Dem.
But we won't accomplish that on election day. At best, we may make a start. The next two years will be key. Dems have to deliver. Dems will NOT deliver unless progressive bloggers stay organized and stay on their butts.
Work to do.
Posted by: jwp | October 19, 2006 at 00:20
There is an old expression from Mark Twain that I tell quite often, "Some people say don't put all your eggs in one basket, but why dilute your efforts and divide your attention? By all means put all you eggs in one basket - but watch that basket!"
Seems here that the repubs put all there eggs in the war and terrorism basket, yet failed to tend to it. In fact, they dashed it to the ground and proceeded to deficate in it. Rove really isn't that smart after all.
Posted by: Dismayed | October 19, 2006 at 00:33
Rove is a liar who understands (firsthand) the fears and prejudices of the public. He is not a genius. But he has has success wielding propaganda.
But, as you say, Dismayed, that does not add up to governance.
The sad fact is that we are governed by vicious, petty and ignorant men. Sad sacks, really.
Posted by: jwp | October 19, 2006 at 01:31
"Out with the old.
In with the new."
This is just old hat folks. Get over it.
Posted by: Jodi | October 19, 2006 at 01:58
This has only a little to do with this thread, but it speaks to the massive misinformation out there that both sides are generating.
I spoke before on the ridiculous 650,000 dead in Iraq study in Lancet, and said that the numbers didn't come close to having a true ring when compared to many other measures of the dead. UNLESS there was some vast depository of bodies found.
I further said I was not the expert to answer directly about the poll's methodology, except to say that just on the numbers side, it seem very, very suspect. I do know numbers. It is sometimes my business to ferret out improbabilities in data, in results, in expectations, and indeed just plain falsifications (though I don't say the Lancet article is a falsification, just poor numbers)
I predicted that the 650,000 number would be picked apart. Here is a one of the first "experts" doing so. More will come of course. It is a big target. A very big 650,000 target.
quoting from the WSJ Opinion Journal
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110009108
"THE COUNT
655,000 War Dead?
A bogus study on Iraq casualties.
BY STEVEN E. MOORE
Wednesday, October 18, 2006 12:01 a.m. EDT
After doing survey research in Iraq for nearly two years, I was
surprised to read that a study by a group from Johns Hopkins
University claims that 655,000 Iraqis have died as a result of the war... "
Like myself the Wall Street Journal has a reputation for numbers.
Anyway for cymro and William, and of course the big number guy DemFromCT. - enjoy.
Posted by: Jodi | October 19, 2006 at 03:12
The Lancet Study
Down the River
Posted by: ab initio | October 19, 2006 at 04:05
We all have bad feelings about the Iraqi war.
However that is no excuse for bad numbers. For poor or at worse deliberately misleading techniques.
Remember that is what got Bush in trouble. Stretching the truth as much as just plain untruth.
quote:
"But the Johns Hopkins tally is wildly at odds with any numbers I have seen in that country. Survey results frequently have a margin of error of plus or minus 3% or 5%--not 1200%."
If we buy into something that is 1200% wrong then our logic becomes suspect in everything.
Wishful thinking is not enough.
Don't give them ammunition with stupidity.
Posted by: Jodi | October 19, 2006 at 09:15
There was a guy who called into C-SPAN this morning reminding people not to forget how the exit polls in 2004 (from place like Maine and NH) were misleading, people said they voted for Kerry but Bush won. The early Kerry "wins" encouraged Republicans to get out and vote in the west.
I'll guess that both Democrats and Republicans remember that election and those polls, being somewhat cynical about Rove and Republicans I'm not celebrating yet.
Posted by: kim | October 19, 2006 at 09:23
ab initio asked up thread about GOTV,
This doesn't get reported much nationally, but I can report that last week the call here in Minnesota went out "Wellstoneians to the Barricades" and what is happening is that the old crew is coming together to do GOTV in two congressional districts, a crew that is mostly volunteer, and actually knows how to do it very very well. It will be phone banking, door knocks and lit distribution the week before the election, Door Hangers the night before election, and finally rides to the polls and help with same day registeration at the polls. The whole thing is being done by state senate district (they all have to run this year), so the effort will be a coordinated campaign model, working to enlarge the DFL Senate Majority, and take the state house in which the DFL is currently down by two seats.
Posted by: Sara | October 19, 2006 at 10:00
Jodi, the Lancet study is very solid. Your source is not.
Posted by: DemFromCT | October 19, 2006 at 14:07
DemFromCT,
and the UN study, and others studies.
My special spidery (Spiderman) math senses tingle and tell me,
NO, NO, NO, ...
I almost sense a Plamegate type fixation here.
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