Who Are They Kidding?

by DemFromCT

The politics of the NIE release are crystal clear:

Seeking to defuse a new wave of criticism about the Iraq war before November elections, US President George W Bush Tuesday stridently denied that the Iraq war has worsened the world terrorist threat.

In his first remarks since parts of an important secret intelligence report were slipped to the media over the weekend, Bush charged that the leaks were politically motivated to undermine Republicans during the upcoming November midterm elections.

According to anonymous sources quoted in major US newspapers over the weekend, the report found that the US-led invasion of Iraq had given birth to a new generation of home-grown Islamic radicals spread around the world and made the United States and other countries more vulnerable to terrorist attacks.

While the report echoes observations made before and since the March 2003 invasion of Iraq by private and public agencies, the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) carries special weight as a consensus of Washington's 16 spy organizations.

Bush said he was so annoyed by the timing of the leaks from the NIE, which had been completed in April, that he had ordered the document declassified.

'Here we are coming down the stretch in an election campaign and it's on the front page of your newspapers,' Bush said. 'Isn't that interesting? Somebody's taken it upon themselves to leak classified information for political purposes.'

The opposition centre-left Democrats have seized on elements of the report to strengthen their stance that the war in Iraq has deflected US focus from the essential war against terrorism.

Bush's reaction screams "DAMAGE CONTROL". And despite the Bush apologists in the press, such as the Note, this is going to hurt.

The political class — the Gang of 500, plus the 33,000 people who aspire to be Gang members — (stupidly) believes that two questions are currently shaping the contours of the midterm environment:

1. Is the leaking of the National Intelligence Estimate linking the Iraq war to failures in the war on terror a paradigm-shifting moment for the Daddy Party?

2. Is Bill Clinton's Wallace-Rorschach outburst a paradigm-shifting moment for the Mommy Party?...

Most masterfully, however, the New York Times' Jim Rutenberg says "dunno to (1) and (2), but isn't it all intriguing??!! And you would be smarter to focus on Question (3), which is how the Bush-Cheney Campaign will take (1) and (2) and put them in a stew with everything else and make this a Daddy Party election no matter what."

It is a must read.  LINK

Please. Halperin is so in the tank for Rove that he can't begin to report on this objectively. Did anything that happen this afternoon look good for the GOP? The focus and discussion is about Iraq. That's the topic Bush wanbts to avoid, and having Karzai and Musharraf tell the press that "Bush is awesome (buy my book)" has been overwhelmed by the NIE. But here's the reality:

One prominent GOP pollster said the new disclosures could put at risk any gains the White House may have made in recent weeks tying the war in Iraq to a broader war on terrorism. "Anything that undermines the connection between the war on terrorism and the war in Iraq is not helpful to us," said pollster Tony Fabrizio. "If nothing else, it puts the president on the defensive."

The gains were illusory to begin with (a net 2 point improvement in the polls is a negligible political improvement). The WH spent days telling the press they, the GOP, were on the offensive, they were rebounding, etc. to the point that some in the press were willing to give the Bush administration the benefit of the doubt. It just ain't so. "On the defensive" is exactly where Bush and the GOP are.

Comments

[ab initio]

Good post DemfCT.

As long as Dems remain on the offense they'll have the Repubs on defense. As long as they create the frame and not play on the Repub frame they have the advantage. The Dems have reality on their side.

Iraq is an unmitigated disaster. Bush has created a civil war with our troops in the middle. Afghanistan continues to worsen with a resurgent Taliban attacking at will and the drug trade booming. Israel at the behest of Bush got smacked by Hezbollah and has created a crisis of confidence in Israel. The neocon-Likudnik combine has shown termendously bad judgement. They cannot be trusted anymore to make prudent decisions. Our military is broken, our international alliances are in shambles, we are hated more than respected in the world - the US has no credibility right now in the world.

A change in America is the only thing that can get the ball rolling in the right direction. Nov 7th will decide if we start the recovery or continue to spiral down further into this growing mess.

[crab nebula]

I'm interested in whether Clinton's Fox appearance has really affected anyone else's messaging. Has anyone seen evidence of this, or is it just a glib assertion by certain bloggers?

[rj]

"On the defensive" -- oh, yes, let's keep them there, please; it's where they've long deserved to be. Thanks for the update, DemFromCT.

The Note: wow. I used to catch Halperin on ABC's (then-fabulous) overnight show occasionally, and he always seemed perfectly fine (and, I'm ashamed to admit now, sorta cute in a wonky kind of way). What the hell happened? Simple toadying? I mean, sheesh, that thing reads like satire...

Somewhat OT: anybody hear anything about Anbar province this week? A week ago the news was that we'd lost it; then in one of Clinton's late-in-the-week interviews (not that one) he said the provincial leaders were moving to kick out the jihadis. It occurred to me that if they're successful, and things calm down there, that'd be as powerful an object lesson in the folly of "stay the course" as one could find (and perhaps an argument for a quicker withdrawal than even the most assertive Dem is calling for). Now I'd guess that the Anbar elders aren't planning for the Jeffersonian democracy we've dreamed of; but I'd be really curious to know what's going on there.

[rj]

Crab Nebula, Fineman on Olbermann was just talking about how Clinton's appearance has energized the Dems and created a dynamic that's startled the Reps. Coming from a master of the conventional wisdom, I'd call that promising. And the administration's full-court press against it (including Condi's tale-spinning at the NYP) suggests Fineman may be onto something. Knock wood.

[Canuck Stuck in Muck]

Sorry. I must have misheard what it was POTUS said: "Somebody's taken it upon themselves to leak classified information for political purposes." He can't be serious! It's a joke! He's a joke! Somebody's taken it upon themselves to leak classified information for political purposes. Imagine! Somebody's stolen our M.O! Un.be.liev.a.ble!

[Mimikatz]

Hillary Clinton seems to have found the spine to attack Condi Rice for rewriting history to suggest that her hubby did as much against al Qaida as Hillary's.

And didn't Dem and I say Social Security was a good issue fornthe Dems?

[freepatriot]

bush was hoist on his own petard ???

is that how you say it ???

Karma sucks, don't it george ???

[...]

what i don't understand is WHEN does bush decide when a classified document will be unclassified, and HOW MUCH of it will be unclassified? why is it classified if he can wave a magic wand and make it unclassified all of a sudden? and is that not political interference of the type he accuses his opponents of? so what if he is king george presently, it still smacks of political opportunism, the kind he despises in others and is quite happy to indulge in himself.. bush needs to be taken to the cleaners. perhaps he can be taken to some country that doesn't want to abide by the geneva conventions for some of his own medicine that he is willing to give on 'suspects'.. i consider bush a prime 'suspect' to the usurping of freedom and democracy that the usa used to be known for..

[lynol]

I wonder who leaked the report. I wonder why the President didn't seem interested in finding out.

Any thoughts, anyone?