Whether It's Iraq Or The WoT, It's Not Going Well For Republicans

by DemFromCT

Bush is still selling fear, but jaded Americans aren't buying. Here's the latest from AP-Ipsos (here's the .pdf):

Doubts about the Bush administration's "war on terrorism" are growing in the United States. Most American worry that the cost in blood and money may be too high, and they don't think al-Qaida kingpin Osama bin Laden will ever be caught, an AP-Ipsos poll found.

Five years after the attacks of Sept. 11, fully one-third of Americans think the terrorists may be winning, the poll suggests. Worries fed by the war in Iraq have spilled over into the broader campaign against terrorists who directly target the U.S.

Half in the poll question whether the costs of the anti-terror campaign are too great, and even more admit that thought has crossed their mind...

Not everyone agrees the war in Iraq is central to the war on terror, as the Bush administration maintains. Six in 10 polled think there will be more terrorism in this country because the U.S. went to war in Iraq. Some feel strongly that the two wars are separate...

Popular support for the war on terror helped neutralize opposition to the Iraq war for a long time, said political analyst Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute. "Now the negative effect of Iraq is dragging down support for the war on terror," he said

Using WoT to neutralize the civil war in iraq? I don't think so. The Pentagon released a grim assesment of same:

The Pentagon report on “Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq” is mandated by Congress and issued quarterly. It covers a broad range of subjects, ranging from the economy to public attitudes to the training of Iraqi security forces.

This time, the study has been the focus of special interest because of increasing fears that Iraq is sliding into civil war. And its grimmer notes, echoing recent Congressional testimony by military commanders, come at a time when President Bush and members of his cabinet have been trying to present a strong case in support of the war, in the face of vehement criticism from Democrats.

Addressing that scenario, the report notes: “Conditions that could lead to civil war exist in Iraq, especially in and around Baghdad, and concern about civil war within the Iraqi population has increased in recent months.”

As a consequence of the rising violence, the number of Iraqi casualties — civilian and well as military —jumped to almost 120 a day. Further, the confidence of Iraqis in the future has diminished, according to public opinion surveys cited in the Pentagon report. Still, the study asserts that the fighting in Iraq does not meet the “strict” legal definition of a civil war.

The Bush Administration is pushing I raq because that's all they have. But that won't keep the House Republican in November, and it won't convince Americans.

A series of polls taken over the last few weeks of August show that support for the war in Iraq among Americans is at an all-time low. Almost two-thirds of Americans in each of three major polls say that they oppose the war, the highest totals since pollsters starting asking Americans the question three years ago. Many of the polls were conducted in advance of the fifth anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks on Washington and New York.

One has to wonder whether Bush is willing to sacrifice the long term support of the WoT for short-term protection from subpoenas by House Democrats. He's likely to lose on both counts, and it will be interesting to see what the opinion of the American public will be then. Bush's policies in Iraq are making us weaker around the world and diverting billions of dollars better spent to deal with real enemies. Americans can look forward to reality-based evaluation only with an opposition Congress ready to perform proper oversight. November will hopefully bring some clarifying detail to what the hell has been going on the last six years.

Comments

[DemFromCT]

In the long term, do you think there will be more or less terrorism in the United States because the US went to war in Iraq?

More: 60%
Less: 31%
About the same/no difference: 6%
Not sure: 3%

[Mimikatz]

Bush's ridiculous notion that if we left Iraq the Sunnis and the Shi'a would stop fighting each other and come over and attack us is transparent to over 60% of the people. What trust is left in him derives solely from the fact that we haven't been attacked since 9/11. His supporters aren't sure why, but that is enough for them.

Bullies like Rove and Cheney are successful if no one fights back. The big surprise for Rove was that the Dems started fighting back in 2005, first on Social Security, where they knew they had a majority, and then on Iraq. Rove's stragtegy and tactics don't work so well against amore confident and aggressive opposition. As of this moment I see no reason to change my prediction that the Dems will take 15-25 seats in the House and 4-7 in the Senate, except that I'd downgrade NY-20 and WA-08, but upgrade VA-02, based on polling.

[Sara]

Please don't miss the article in the current Washington Monthly. Sorry I don't have the link, but I linked to it from today's Washington Post. It deals with a commission trying to sort out Iraq, chaired by James Baker the Third, and Lee Hamilton, with an equal distribution of Dems and Republicans. Apparently lots of arm twisting went on with Bush and particularly Cheney, and they have been at work for months, bringing in all the Iraq experts available, lots of consultation from RAND and the like, and the idea apparently is a post election new policy.

Tonight on TV I noted a short piece that Baker and Hamilton are now in Iraq as part of the inquiry.

The article has a stunning finish. What will happen when it is finished? Answer, Baker will sit down with Little George, and as one does with a son who drinks too much, do an intervention.

Now that really solves all these problems, doesn't it? Anyhow, look up the piece, it is stunning.

[DemFromCT]

Sara, here's the link.

A Higher Power
James Baker puts Bush's Iraq policy into rehab.

[tictioltade]

Great site very informative two thumbs up!

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