What the Voters Think

Since the last update, there have been several new polls and new developments.  The bottom line:  Democrats now lead in enough districts to take control of the House.    

Chris Bowers at MyDD has aggregated all of the polling data available so far, and it shows that Dems lead, in independent, non-partisan polls, in enough races to gain 15 seats.  Dems lead in the open seats by margins of 17 points in CO-07 (after O'Donnell admitted to and apologized for a youthful indiscretion involving abolishing Social Security), 12 points in AZ-08 and 7 points in IA-01; in challenges by 15 points in IN-08, 11 points in IN-09, 8 points in IN-02, and 4 points in KY-04.  These are all polls done since September 10.  Older polls (mostly from Constituent Dynamics, 8/29) have Dems leading in CT-02, IL-06, NC-11, PA-06, PA-10, VA-02 and WA-08.    And last but certainly not least, this just in--Nick Lampson is now leading in TX-22 by 29 points.  That is the 15 seats the Dems need.

Internal polls, uncontradicted by any other polling that has been released, have Dems leading by a large margin in OH-18, and in WI-08, OH-01, CA-11 and NY-29.  That is 20 seats.  Other polls (some internal Dem polls) show Dems close in NY-24, FL-13, KY-03, CA-04, NV-02, OH-02, OH-15, CT-04, NY-25, NM-01, NY-19, CT-05, NC-08, CT-04, FL-22 and PA-08.  There are also several  longshots, particularly in the West.  Over 40 GOP-held seats are in play.

These are snapshots, mostly polling registered, not likely, voters.  The election is six weeks off.  We know buckets of GOP mud are on the way to try to damage these Dem challengers, as well as a handful of Dem incumbents who are not at present in danger.  But Dem candidates in race after race have presented themselves to the voters as competent and deserving of serious consideration, the first obstacle for a challenger.  The GOP is still playing defense on Iraq, with new demands from Jane Harman for the release of the latest NIE before the election, with Gallup showing that voters are not buying the GOP spin on effective responses before 9/11, and with Iraqis saying they want us to leave in order to make their country safe.  The voters don't seem to be listening to so much the Kool Kidz.  They are making up their own minds. 

Comments

[Mimikatz]

The TX-22 poll was an internal Lampson poll, not a non-partisan poll. It has Lampson at 43%, the favored write-in at 14% and 28% undecided. Smithers takes about 8% away from the R's.

And the Dems seem to be developing an instinct for the jugular themselves. There are some pretty hard-hitting Dem ads out there too.

I'm not saying we win, just that we have spread the field, and the Dem challengers are in very good shape going into the final weeks of the campaign, able in many cases to match the GOP on money and message.

[freepatriot]

raise your hand if you think Iraq will get better before November

and keep your hand up until November

you got a better chance of keeping your hand up that long than the repuglicans have of surviving the disaster unfolding in Iraq