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September 18, 2006

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That's Giffords v. Graf in AZ-08 and Kagen v, Gard in WI-08.

excellent and thank you.

The Senate races get polled more, which may be why there seems to be more movement there. The main polls since my last update were the Constituent Dynamics polls in the three Indiana races, where the Dem was over 50% in all three, and the MN-06 poll, which was not good.

The Dem Governors are leading by large margins in IL, OH and PA, as well as NY, and a big question is whether they have coattails. That, and how CT shapes up, are critical. The more things go south for the Bush regime, the more races in play, the more it will cost to defend, and the more diluted their efforts will be. But always remember I'm a congenital optimist.

Mimi, I think MN 06 is underestimated in this poll & analysis. Look at the Mark Kennedy Senate Poll -- he is in the low 30's (and he currently represents the 06 CD,) against Klobuchar who has hit above 60 in the latest Senate poll. In fact the Republicans have confessed that they are removing the party money from that race. The key in the Backman/Wetterling race is the Independents who dominate the district in parts -- and you got to look at how they poll to see if they are properly weighting the Independents.

Coleen Rowley has recently moved up about six points on Klein in 02 CD in Minnesota, with 16% undecided. Murtha was in last weekend to organize vets for Coleen -- and the Rosemont VFW Hall was far too small for the volunteers who showed up to hear and then sign on to help.

Walsh is also very close to Gutknencht in the first district. This race is fascinating for reasons outside normal party politics. It involves the question of whether Gutknecht has worked to keep the coal trains out of downtown Rochester -- home of Mayo Clinic. The Rail and Coal interests are rebuilding an old train line, intending to bring Dakota and Wyoming coal to Eastern Electrical generators right through the middle of Rochester and along side the holy of holies -- Mayo Clinic -- and Gutknecht has not protested a drop. (48 + coal trains a day with 120+ cars is what is projected), and Mayo does not think coal dust healthy for their clients or industry. Walsh's position is to create a rail detour around Rochester in the rural areas, and require coal cars to be covered, and Gutknecht says either he has not looked into it, or that he thinks Mayo's risk analysis is wrong. It is a fascinating stand-off, and an interesting matter in a campaign. In the last year the Rochester area has flipped, Republican to Dem.

Our 5th district race remains interesting only in the cultural sense, but I think political junkies should follow it. Essentially, how do you elect the first voice for American Muslims into Congress? What kind of coalition elects him? Who positions money against him?
the Pope douth not like the Protestants much more than the Muslims, so how do we deal with that matter?

Thanks Mimi.

I've read that the Republican strategy is to spend 90% of their money on negative and attack TV spots. This will make races close. Close elections lend themselves to fraud by vote machines. The machines are so widespread and entrenched now that it will take an army of statistics graduate students to parse the data, and by the time they do, it will be too late. Maybe I'm being alarmist here, but these machines scare me. I just don't understand how they can be approved in California despite failing the required tests for certification.

All of this information is great, however all of the projections are based on the assumption of fair elections and honest vote counts. They could be meaningless and I predict that the actual Democratic gains will prove to be far less than the polls indicate. I'll be surprised if we even take the House.

Sara: The MN poll came in just as I was finishing. It is the second to suggest Wetterling is not doing nearly as well as Klobuchar. I didn't see the analysis in the poll.

Eric--Yes, i do assume reasonably fair elections. I think the best defense against fraud is to be as far ahead as possible in as many races as possible. It doesn't look like Ken Blackwell can do anything to overcome the bad numbers in his race for Ohio Gov. Is the R machine going to fix OH 01, 02, 15 and 18? Who knows, but a big Dem effort plus vigilance are the best defenses.

There is only so much that the R's can do, given the decentralization in House races. It is expensive to poll every race, and there are plenty of sleeper races in the midwest and west that the Dems could win out from under the R's noses. So don't be defeatist. Get to work.

More good news from FL-13, Katherine Harris' ond seat. Christine Jennings (D) leads Buchanan 46-38%, although he has vastly more money. But she is a proven fundraiser.

Focusing on the 6th Congression District race in Illinois, see http://republicansforduckworth.typepad.com/blog/ for a candidate's debate that made it clear Duckworth will win:
1. She wants to get us out of Iraq.
2. She's a veteran and her bland opponent has no service record at all.
3. The District has changed. 60% of Americans, including us here in DuPage county, are opposed to the war in Iraq.
4. She has a natural appeal for women voters and people of color. Her opponent is just another balding white lawyer.
5. She wants to get us off foreign oil and into bio-fuels and flex cars that can run on any fuel.
6. Her opponent has been lying his ass off in direct-mail flyers and getting nailed for his falsehoods in the Illinois newspapers.

Need I continue?

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