"Spy Agencies Say Iraq War Worsens Terrorism Threat" -NY Times

That's the headline in the NY Times, and the concept is as straightforward as it comes.

A stark assessment of terrorism trends by American intelligence agencies has found that the American invasion and occupation of Iraq has helped spawn a new generation of Islamic radicalism and that the overall terrorist threat has grown since the Sept. 11 attacks.

The classified National Intelligence Estimate attributes a more direct role to the Iraq war in fueling radicalism than that presented either in recent White House documents or in a report released Wednesday by the House Intelligence Committee, according to several officials in Washington involved in preparing the assessment or who have read the final document.

The intelligence estimate, completed in April, is the first formal appraisal of global terrorism by United States intelligence agencies since the Iraq war began, and represents a consensus view of the 16 disparate spy services inside government. Titled "Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States,'' it asserts that Islamic radicalism, rather than being in retreat, has metastasized and spread across the globe.

An opening section of the report, "Indicators of the Spread of the Global Jihadist Movement," cites the Iraq war as a reason for the diffusion of jihad ideology.

And for those who still have trouble understanding what Bush's loyal opposition have been saying for some time, let's be clear:

The report "says that the Iraq war has made the overall terrorism problem worse," said one American intelligence official.

More than a dozen United States government officials and outside experts were interviewed for this article, and all spoke only on condition of anonymity because they were discussing a classified intelligence document. The officials included employees of several government agencies, and both supporters and critics of the Bush administration. All of those interviewed had either seen the final version of the document or participated in the creation of earlier drafts. These officials discussed some of the document's general conclusions but not details, which remain highly classified.

There are several undercurrents that make this simple concept a tough sell. One is that Americans really do not like to lose wars. They can tolerate casualties in a good cause, but dislike losing to the point of preferring good news to bad (see Fox News) whether true or not, or even no news to bad (is there a clamor to hear more about Afghanistan?).

Another is that no matter how disliked Bush is (and he is, sometimes intensely), the office of the POTUS is highly respected by Americans. If Bush said the moon was made of green cheese, a segment of the population would believe him and a further segment would want to believe him. Bush's constant push to conflate Saddam, Iraq and 9/11 has a cumulative effect, even if sometimes more on reporters than us.

The downside of tying the WoT^TM to iraq for the GOP is that we could be in danger of losing on both fronts. And the civil war in Iraq is not going well nor is Bush's approach building support for his policies with our allies.

Now that the 9/11 anniversary is over, focusing on what's important instead of what's force fed is vital for the media, for candidates and for us. This is still the same George Bush that made a hash out of Katrina recovery, the same George Bush that went into Iraq with no plan for the aftermath, the same George Bush whose economic policies have benefitted the rich more than regular people and the same George Bush who let Bin Laden get away at Tora Bora by diverting attention and troops to Iraq. This is not an impressive track record, and it shows in Bush's job approval, stuck forever below 50%.

The idea that Bush is making the WoT^TM worse by increasing terrorism should come as no surprise to anyone. We are not only less prosperous than we were five years ago, Bush's policies are making us less safe, less respected, and less successful on the world stage. He's breaking the Army and straining the national guard. And no artificial election year media blitz is going to keep reality from the American people.

Bush has enablers in Congress, mostly with the R label, and they want to stay the course. And staying the course means we become less safe. That is not a formula for American success no matter how much money the RNC spends on attack ads.

Comments

[KdmFromPhila]

Great posts. I'd like to see the headline become the primay narrative in the media, starting tomorrow on the talk shows.

[Davis X. Machina]

Insofar as it has delivered two elections, and is poised to deliver a third, I don't think it is accurate to label the invasion of Iraq a 'failure'.

Continuing control of the government here in the US, with the ability to bestow direct favors in the form of business and indirect favors in the form of a reshaped tax and regulatory environment that goes with it, has produced a return-on-investment for those positioned to take advantage of it that far outweighs the relatively small cost in lives and money expended in Mesopotamia.

Iraq isn't a war, or an occupation -- it's just a rather expensive campaign commercial.

Destroying Saddam was lagniappe -- the real target of Operation Iraqi Freedom is, and remains, any opposition party in the US.

It's 'Mission Accomplished', not to the exent that Iraqis are free, or terrorism contained. Success is measured by how close we are to a one-party state.

So far, if I were in power, I'd say progress has been satisfactory,

[freepatriot]

progress has been satisfactory ???

read bilmon

Iran is literally begging bush to attack Iran, so the Iranians can finish off the US presence in the mideast

Hugo Chavez is setting Venezuala up to reap a windfall by selling oil to China and India (at $200 a barrel) while Iran's oil exports are intrupted

everybody on the planet is planning to make a buck off george's next folly

and let's not forget that the CIA is gonna make the Carlyle group's business activities most unprofitable in the near future (the CIA never forgets)

that ain't success in my book

[Mimikatz]

But as a taxpayer, I feel cheated.

Most voters aren't benefitting, and the areas where Bush is most popular have born a large part of the casualties. I don't think Iraq is a successful narrative for them, and as soon as people see it badly impacting the war on terrorists, the woese it is for Bush and the GOP. We'll know in 6 weeks.

[Katie Jensen]

Well, at the minimum it is validation for our perception that the risk of terrorism has increased under a violent regime like Bush's. His lack of respect for life is so obvious that many can't see it. The list from beginning to now makes his lack of respect for life clear. First we have 9/11 which he failed to prevent. Then we have the war in Iraq. Then we had Katrina. We have Bush using immigrants for cheap labor, using Iraqi soil for a battle ground, and finally using torture, using terror in an effort to beat terror. Turley said, "you can't win a moral war by using immoral means." The sins of the fathers are passed down. We are the leaders and we are leading humanity in a vicious circle. The circle of fear. Fear is a false God.

[Paul Lyon]

``it's just a rather expensive campaign commercial.''

Most campaign commercials don't cost lives in the tens of thousands. Now if you meant to include that in the cost...

[ab initio]

Not only is our governments actions and policies in Iraq and Lebanon increasing the frustrations of Arabs and Persians who would sympathize with us it is providing the perfect breeding and training ground for the next generation of jihadists.

But what is the real tragedy is that we are now stooping to the level of the terrorists and shredding any remaining vestiges of our founding principles and values. As I felt couple weeks ago with the Dems not taking a distinct stand against torture and kangaroo courts and relying on Warner/McCain would turn out to be a bad strategy. First, it goes to show that the Dems don't have courage of conviction nor principles they stand for but instead will do anything to get elected. Each time they have taken that approach not only have they not got elected but it further disillusions their base. The legalization of torture and trashing of established law and precedence as well as the Geneva Conventions is in many ways an Iraq vote redux in 2002. The Dems by and large voted to authorize war and did not stand by principle and many are haunted by that vote today. It will not be long before the torture and indefinite detention law with no habeas corpus will come back to haunt. Once the cat is out of the bag then its only a matter time that political opponents, folks with the wrong name or skin color or beliefs get labeled as the new "terrorist". I am surprised and shocked at the lack of emotion and organization in the liberal blogosphere to push back against this legislation. Is this less important than the Path to 9/11?

[FredinVermont]

I don't think Iraq is a successful narrative for them, and as soon as people see it badly impacting the war on terrorists, the woese it is for Bush and the GOP. We'll know in 6 weeks.

The problem is that in order for most people to "see" that things are worse on the terror front within the next 6 weeks would probably require just the sort of October terror surprise that that would help rather than hurt the  Republicans.

 

[DemFromCT]

This story will be all over the Sunday talk shows.

[Daniel DiRito]

The problem, as I view it, is that virtually all the actions of this President in the region are fomenting instability and hostility that may soon reach a point of no return. Even worse, the efforts of this administration are failing to create a wedge between extremist leaders and their populations. On the contrary, the language used by this administration, coupled with the perception that the U.S. is engaged in unwarranted and ideological aggression, has served to push otherwise moderate populations into alignment with radical governments and extremist organizations.

As I attempt to grasp the magnitude of allowing this President unfettered authority between now and the end of his second term, I can't help but wonder what it would take to dissuade a man with his level of certainty and conviction from undertaking the actions that will facilitate the ideations he seems convinced have been presented to him through a mix of fate and faith.

History may well record this chapter as a period of unparalleled extremism. Worse yet, the United States may well be viewed as the primary force in facilitating that eventuality. George Bush, when asked about his legacy, seems content to respond that while he can't predict the future he believes his actions will prove to be pivotal. He may well be correct but, in this instance, I would suggest he recall the expression, "Be careful what you wish for".

Read more here:

www.thoughttheater.com

[Alto]

There is a new goup of retired CIA agents forming a new company to use all their knowledge to help the world; Abraxas. Plame wanted a book.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/09/24/MNGBSL99K61.DTL&feed=rss.news

Bush's actions already were pivotal. Terrorists are animals and if they see weakness they attack. There should never be another attack on the US, unless, when the new dem President, comes in he abuses the power and sells off America(ns) like Clinton.

If the NIE is classified, why is it leaked? Plame did alot of leaking, and now they leak submarine deployments. Maybe we thought it was CIA, again, writing for Congress.

[Katie Jensen]

Let me counter your post, alto, with facts.

1) Plame's side of the story has not been told up to now. Effective decisions come from considering all sides of a discussion.

2) Bush actions have been pivotal. He has made the world a more dangerous place and increased the number of terrorists.

3) Terrorists are human beings not animals. This is a fact.

4) Not only terrorists look for weak spots in which to attack. Our government certainly has engaged in this process of looking for a weak place to target. This is a standard military strategy.

5) The only proven leaks have come from our own gov't and the bush administration. They clearly leaked for strategic purposes. The leaks came from members of the Bush administration. This is a fact.

One thing is clear that the republicans and bush supporters cannot speak about the successes of the bush administration without using judgments and hyperbole. Try to prove your point using facts, it won't work.

[Alto]

Facts are they do not know where the leaks came from. Alot of people have gotten away with treason since Plame complainded to Powell about the Niger thing; Plame's facts are hiding behind her CIA employment(proven leaks); alot like her identity which we leaked-you may be upset when you find out what she did to America and the people.

Terrorists are not humans. They will kill you without thinking twice. They need to be killed.

The nature of terrorism is in their creation. They did'nt just turn into what they are; understanding this might help if they don't kill you first.

Murder has made the world a more dangerous place and that is what they did in New York.

[ab initio]

Alto

Please help me with your definition of terrorism.

[freepatriot]

o boy, we got another troll

I know most people hate trolls, but I believe they're a sign of success

they don't fight back unless they're losing

alto's idiocy is a sign that we're doing something right

think about it

what kind of idiot wants to argue false Plame facts on emptywheel's home blog ???

the answer is:

the kind of idiot who is afraid that America will learn the truth

troll away dickweed, and thanks for making us look good

[freepatriot]

o boy, we got another troll

I know most people hate trolls, but I believe they're a sign of success

they don't fight back unless they're losing

alto's idiocy is a sign that we're doing something right

think about it

what kind of idiot wants to argue false Plame facts on emptywheel's home blog ???

the answer is:

the kind of idiot who is afraid that America will learn the truth

troll away dickweed, and thanks for making us look good

[Tim]

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