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September 21, 2006

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Oddly, I don't remember journalists so much selling the "tightening" story in the days leading up to the '94 campaign; it was all about how bad it was going to be for Dems. To be fair, I suppose the break on 40 years' Dem dominance was a bigger story, but still...

No question, any blip of gap-closing polls will be trumpeted far and wide (and, as we've seen this past week, all reports of the opposite will be de-emphasized). The only solutions, really, are to blank out all info (fat chance), or to achieve some Zen method of absorbing the data with no emotional response. I tried the former back in '92: going to movies after work, to avoid the evening news -- I always still seemed to catch the "it's closed to a one-point race" reports. Maybe I'll shoot for the latter this time. (Not doing well at it so far: elated by CBS last night, bummed by LA Times today)

Two thing about those two polls: 1) How different can their methodologies be, to get results that divergent? 2) The point DemfromCT keeps making: even the improved numbers are crappy numbers. The lower ones are suggestive of an election blowout; but even the higher ones are in line with presidents who saw their parties take severe losses. It's the GOP that should be sweating, not us.

Well, I will venture out on the thin branch not too far above the quiet sleeping dogs and say that in "my less biased opinion" (compared to most on this forum) the Republicans are coming back just in time for the elections and though they will lose seats in 2006, there is a little doubt that they will lose control of either the Senate and House. There is a lot of doubt that they will lose both.

Dem in CT,

You've got the LATimes poll numbers wrong. The new poll has Bush's approval at 44%, disapproval at 54%. The 45% is from January of this year. Polling Report is wrong.

http://www.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2006-09/25492565.pdf

BenP, you're confusing RV and all adults. See page 5:

In this poll, 45% of respondents approve of the way the president is handling his job, while 52% disapprove. Among registered voters, the numbers are about the same (44% to 54%). In last month’s poll the president’s ratings were 40% to 58% among all respondents and 41% to 57% among registered voters.

I'd argue RV is a more important number. "All Adults" don't vote.

It's an intriguing question, Ben P. First of all the main point is to compare apples to apples. It's a 3% RV gain in the LA times poll, and a 5% all adults gain. But if the older polls are "all adults", switching to RV or LV now and comparing to then may make it look different than it really is.

Even more important is LV, but that's a tricky thing to do, as pollsters' models differ.

As usual, demtom (and DemFromCT) make great points:

The lower ones are suggestive of an election blowout; but even the higher ones are in line with presidents who saw their parties take severe losses.

This may not be deckchairs on the Titanic-type stuff, but it's still awful, especially considering how much effort the WH put in to moving numbers during their 9-11 "holiday season" of fearmongering. If there was ever a time that Bush would make a serious move, one would think it would most likely be around 9-11. He didn't. He either didn't move, or he only moved slightly. And as Dem Congressionals start to go up on the air, and the Repubs don't have much with which to counter, you could very well see some serious downward movement for a lot of Repubs.

``I'd argue RV is a more important number. "All Adults" don't vote.''

It's about time that we had a system in which all eligible are registered to vote by their state election board automatically whenever there is evidence, say from state or local tax receipts, or driver's license records, or whatever info could be used to determine whether the person lives in that state and where (so as to assign a precinct). I believe that this is the way it is done in some European countries, and I don't see why we do not do it here. It isn't as tho' people don't move house in Europe.

The comment of getting it right, rather than getting it first struck me to ask: "So, you're not with Faux News?" Sorry, I couldn't resist the snark.

But I do worry about the inevitable "October Suprise" that Rove has promised his fellow Repugs. Is Osama Bin Forgotten's corpse is on ice, ready to have Bush's minions thaw it out, fill it full of holes and scream "We Got Em"? Or, will Chimpy McClusterPhuck be carpet bombing Iran and aided by the Corporate Media, bitch slap anyone who opposes this war crime?

Worse yet, could another Terror attack be timed that they use to call off the elections under Marshall Law?

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