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September 18, 2006

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http://www.electoral-vote.com today has the Senate tied, with Republicans winning NJ (which ain't right).

TN is really surprising me with its potential. Al Gore, are you on the job?

Torture, Secret Foreign Prisons, Kangaroo Courts.
Tinkering with the Geneva Conventions.
Is this a way to SUPPORT OUR TROOPS?

'pockets, pollster.com via Slate has a momentum shift that favors Dems, and as you note, e-v.com.

Add Rasmussen, also showing the Senate shifing to a more favorable picture for Dems, though still a toss-up.

DemFromCT, and as of a few months ago the consensus I felt was that the House is possible and the Senate is a real long shot. So for it to look like a legitimate toss-up in the Senate, is a trend I can get behind. Maybe I'm being an optimist on VA & NJ (and PA), but it seems to me like our odds in those "toss-ups" are pretty solid and however much I'm biting my nails this far out is over MO & TN.

The Jersey polls are disquieting, but remember the presidential polls out of the state in both 2000 and 2004 suggested far tighter races than we ultimately saw. Maybe it's just a polling anomaly: the state appears less blue in surveys than in reality.

I'm still fearful, in TN, of the "black candidates get their poll numbers and not a point higher" syndrome that did in Tom Bradley, Harvey Gantt, and, nearly, Doug Wilder. Ford's a LOT better candidate than Corker, but the South of late has been the place good Dem candidates go to die.

demtom, I'm from "away" as they say in Maine, so I won't comment on TN. I just don't know, though what you say is CW. In that regard, I wonder if it's better that Ford doesn't have a big lead.

As for NJ, my guess is that Kean has peaked. The numbers in NJ usually suggest that corruption makes Ds unloved, but politics make Rs unelectable.

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