How the Democrats Can Take The House: The Polls

By Mimikatz

Labor Day is traditionally the start of the election season, and that means we have new polls to give us an idea of how the Dems are doing in retaking the House.  Constituent Dynamics is polling 30 contested races (25 R seats, 5 Dem seats), and has results in 20 of them.  In addition, in 7 races where the candidates had not definitively been chosen (most will be by 9/12), they polled using "generic" Republican and Democrat.  Polls in the three Indiana races were not complete and were not released with the others.  These polls feature a sample of 1000 registered voters in each district, automated calling and a MOE of +/-3.  In addition, there are relatively recent polls in a few other races, and all of the prognosticators have new updates, including the Cook Political Report (Amy Walter), Chuck Todd, and Chris Bowers at MyDD.  Dems are leading or within the margin of error in most of the close races that have been polled.  Most recent polls are available at TPMCafe Election Central.

Predictions range from a narrow hold for the GOP to a Dem sweep of 25 seats or more.  My sense?  The Dems, right now, look poised to take 6-8 of the open seats (IA-01, CO-07, AZ-08, TX-22, NY-24, MN-06 maybe OH-18, WI-06 and IL-06) and oust at least 7 incumbents (CT-02, IN-08, 09; PA-06, 10; VA-02, NC-11, and perhaps as many as 20.    The most vulnerable Republican-held seats are in the upper midwest, New England and Mid-Atlantic states, but there are opportunities for the Dems in the Mountain West as well.

Below the fold is my take, with links to all the Dem candidates so you can get a flavor of the candidates, watch some ads and see who is not afraid to identify themselves as a Dem.

Open seats, Dems take 6-8:

Generally, a party's best opportunities are in open seats.  This time The Dem Candidate is polling ahead in IA-01 (Bruce Braley v. Whalen) and CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter v. O'Donnell).  In TX-22, Tom DeLay's seat, the R's have settled on a candidate, but her name must be written in.  To complicate matters, a special election has been called to be held simultaneously with the November general election, to fill the last two months of DeLay's seat.  At last report, not only the designated write-in but two other R's were running.  Nick Lampson is the Dem, and he is sitting on a $2 million war chest.

Primaries await in four other seats, so the most recent polling is generic.  In NY-24 (Mike Arcuri v. Meier) the Dem was 8 points ahead in the generic poll and an internal Dem poll had Arcuri ahead 40-36.  In AZ-08 the generic Dem is ahead 50-46%.  The probable Dem is Gabrielle Giffords and the leading R's are immigration hard-liner Randy Graf and RNC-favored Steve Huffmann.  Graf was leading in the last poll with a large undecided.  In MN-06 the generic R led 42-53, but reportedly Dem candidate Patty Wetterling is leading the very conservative Michelle Bachman and has more cash.  More problematic are WI-08 (Gard is the R, Dem Steve Kagen has the fundraising edge over Nancy Nusbaum, who is supported by Emily's List) and IL-06, where Tammy Duckworth goes against Pete Roskam.  Race is statistically tied (D+1).  Finally, the soap opera in OH-18 continues.  Bob Ney is out, so it is an open seat.  The R's will select a candidate in a 9/14 primary.  Joy Padgett, the choice of Ney and House leader John Boehner, recently declared bankruptcy and may have problems securing the nomination and the seat.  Dems have picked lawyer Zack Space. Against a generic Republican, Space led 47-43.

Vulnerable Incumbents, Dems take 7-10

The most vulnerable incumbents appear to be in CT-02 (Joe Courtney v. Rob Simmons), where the Constituent Dynamics poll had Courtney ahead 51-45; in PA-06 (Lois Murphy v. Gerlach, 50-45 D), in PA-10 (Chris Carney v. Sherwood, 50-43 D), in VA-02 (Phil Kellam vs. Thelma Drake, 51-43 D), in NC-11 (Heath Shuler v. Charles Taylor, 50-47 D) and in IN-08  (Brad Ellsworth v. Jon Hostettler, 44-41 D, internal D poll) and IN-09, (Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel, 48-38 D, internal D poll).  It will be interesting to see if the Constituent Dynamics poll confirms these rather large Dem leads in the Indiana races.

Taking these races will get the Dems to 12-14 seats.  But they also stand a good chance of taking several more seats. 

Still within the MOE are Patricia Madrid in NM-01, running a very aggressive campaign against Heather Wilson (45-48 R) and Ken Lucas in KY-04, running against Freshman Geoff Davis ( 46-49 R). In IN-02 Joe Donnelly has polled several points ahead of Chris Chocola, and the RNCC is not funding Chocola's race, in light of other, more vulnerable incumbents.  Again, it would be nice to have the Constituent Dynamics poll results, but Chuck Todd has noted that in every election there is one incumbent who seems to be blindsided, and the Count looks like he may be the one this round.

In other races awaiting more definitive polling,  John Cranley is the Dem challenger in OH-01 against Steve Chabot.  An internal D poll had them even at 45; an earlier R internal poll had them at 44-46 R.  Also in Ohio Mary Jo Kilroy is challenging Deborah Pryce in OH-15.  An internal D poll had Pryce ahead at 41-44. Finally, in WA-08 newcomer Darcy Burner is challenging freshman Dave Reichert.  Burner has raised quite a bit of money, and Constituent Dynamics had her ahead at 49-46.  An earlier local poll had her behind 41-54 R, however.

In CT-04 Chris Shays seems to have made a comeback against Diane Farrell. running against the war as well as Shays (42-49 R).  Perhaps DemfromCT can provide some insight why Courtney is doing so much better.  In FL-22 Ron Klein has raised a ton of meney but polled 8 points behind Clay Shaw at 44-52 R. 

Other Potential Pickups, Dems take 2-?

Most of these races lack independent polling or, in some cases, any publicly released polling, but the Dem challengers are well-funded and mounting aggressive campaigns.  The incumbents are somewhat vulnerable.  Netroots candidate Joe Sestak squares off against Crazy Curt Weldon in PA-07, and Patrick Murphy is taking on freshman Mike Fitzpatrick in PA-08.  Polling here is running in favor of the R's.  In the other CT seat, CT-05, the other Murphy (Chris) is taking on perennial Nancy Johnson, who sits on a mammoth war chest (44-49 R, internal D poll).    In NH-02, Paul Hodes is taking on Charlie Bass.  An internal D poll had them close at 42-43 R, and if Hodes gets sufficient funding, he will make a real race of it.  Constituent Dynamics did poll CO-04, and found Angie Paccione running behind Marilyn Musgrave at 41-47 R, but some Colorado bloggers insist she is closer than that.  Kirsten Gillibrand is taking on bad boy John Sweeney in NY-20, but so far he is still ahead by several points.  In NY-29 incumbent freshman Randy Kuhl is only three points ahead of challenger Eric Massa, 40-43 R.  Finally, close to home, in CA-11, friend of the extraction industries Richard Pombo is getting a vigorous challenge from Jerry McNerney, with lots of help from Bay Area volunteers and none at all from the DCCC, still smarting (apparently) from the primary defeat of their candidate.  McNerney polled ahead 46-42, although not an independent poll. 

Finally, lightning can strike anywhere this round.  Possible upsets are AZ-05, NJ-07, IL-10, MN-01, NH-02, NV-03, and even CA-04, CO-05, CO-06, ID-01, IL-11, KY-02, NC-08, NE-01, OH-02, TX-23, WA-05 and WY-AL.

Comments

[emptypockets]

Extremely helpful rundown, thank you Mimikatz.

Another useful page here from electoral-vote.com on the hot House races, with photos, blurbs & wikipedia links.

[DemFromCT]

Chris Shays is a very skillful campaigner (more seasoned than Farrell), but this race isn't over. His district supported Lamont, so the timetable thing helps him and hurts Joe. However, yesterday's Bush gauntlet (support me, I am your GOP leader; you're with me or against me and I stand for torture and secret prisons) hurts all CT Rs who were running away from Bush.

In CT-2, a very D district, Simmons isn't half the campaigner Shays is.

I think Murphy in CT-5 has a better chance than Farrell. Simmons is clearly the most vulnerable of the three.

Just my opinion.

[Mimikatz]

Thanks, Dem. None of the races are over until it's over. There are some good candidates running, and I still think we'll get at least the 15 we need. Another site with good info is the WaPo election site, except that they don't update too frequently. It has a background on each district in the contested races.

[DemFromCT]

the new MSNBC/National journal site is good as well.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14275232/

See CT-2:

7. Conn., House Dist. 2

Candidates:
Simmons (R) v. Courtney (D)

Charlie Cook's race rating: Toss up

Chuck Todd's Race Ranking: 7*
(With apologies to Mr. Alter...) Old C.W.: Lieberman indie bid divides Democrats, helps incumbent Republican. New C.W.: House Democratic candidates who can sport the endorsements of both Lamont and Lieberman have an edge.

Source: NationalJournal.com

*Ranked by likelihood to switch party control

[ab initio]

Mimi

As you sift through the data do you see any campaign themes or are they all basically local elections? I would have thought that the Dems would be interested in nationalizing the elections and making it a referendum on Bush and Iraq. However, in reading comments on MyDD it seems many Dem candidates are not claiming the Dem label in their campaign literature and media placements - implying they are running on their own.

[Mimikatz]

Ab: It is hard to generalize. Visit the websites I linked to. They range from some who don't identify the candidate as a Dem to Mary Jo Kilroy's "Proud Democrat for Congress!" Many are against the Iraq war. Some have detailed proposals and some are pretty sketchy. Patricia Madrid and Kirsten Gillibrand have some good, hard-hitting ads, although Madrid never identifies heself as a Dem. Surprising in a state with a Dem Governor and Senator. Gillibrand does so identify, right at the top. Kellam (VA-02) and Cranley (OH-01) are the most conservative based on one of my earlier tours of the websites. Now that I've put the links in one place, I urge everyone to find out for themsleves just what our crop of candidates looks and sounds like.

[Mimikatz]

I should note that Patsy Madrid clearly links Heather Wilson to Bush in her ads, and denounces the Bush Admin, so one would really have to be a "low information" voter not to figure it out.

[Mimikatz]

Cook Report upgrades OH-01 (Cranley v. Chabot) and OH-15 (Kilroy v. Pryce) to tossup, but downgrades CA-11 (McNerney v. Pombo) to Likely R. But Pombo found himself in more scandal this week.

[MissLaura]

Minor point, but Hodes vs. Bass is NH-02 not 01.

Thanks for this. I read these kind of summations like I'm taking drugs - greedily, like it's going to fill a hole in me now. (Then, unfortunately, I remember that the election is 2 months away and I'm not going to know how it all turns out until then. At that point, refocusing on the local and immediate is the only thing to keep me sane.)

[MissLaura]

I'll also say while I'm here, for the benefit of anyone clicking through all those links, that Paul Hodes' positions reward close reading. On a quick skim they can look a little generic moderate Dem, but the closer you read, the more interesting - and progressive - they look. Listening to him in person, even more so.

[emptywheel]

Mimikatz

As always, thanks for these reviews--I find them quite useful.

[emptywheel]

Oh, and here's a thought. Could the special election in TX be an attempt to use the results of the one to claim "voter intent" for the real election? That is, do you think they would try to claim that Stekla would get the same number of votes for the real race?

[emptypockets]

I thought Lampson wasn't participating in the special election, the better to dismiss it as nonsense, so that vote count would be meaningless? do I remember that wrong?

although that is an interesting idea & may have been on their minds

[Mimikatz]

'Pockets--You are right that Lampson is not participating. The word is that Rick Perry did it so voters would know how to spell "Shelley Sekula-Gibbs" for the write-in, but then three other Republicans and a Libertarian jumped in, and one of the R's is running as a write-in as well. Not running in the Special would save Lampson from doing worse against a real than a write-in opponent. Apparently they use electrinic machines and the write-in process is cumbersome, rather like texting on a phone but with a larger keyboard.

[Blind Date]

In CO-04, that company didn't even poll the 3rd party candidate, Eric Eidsness, who took 8% in a Survey USA poll. And it was weighted 50% Republican sample, when the district is 40%. That means a lot of Republicans are ditching Marilyn Musgrave for Angie Paccione.

[Agustin Neal]

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