Katrina: Limits of Polling Or Limits Of Bush's Base?

by DemFromCT

[UPDATE: Prof. Franklin has a composite look at Political Arithmetik on the Katrina effect one year later. The results are a bit different, but there's more than Gallup involved in the composite model.

Frank Newport at Gallup posts a fascinating review of Gallup data on Bush's numbers, and looks at correlation with Katrina and other major events.

Just how much damage was done to the standing of President George W. Bush in the eyes of the American public by the government's faltering response to Hurricane Katrina?

The conventional wisdom appears to be that his image took a major hit.

In a New York Times story on Monday, reporter Sheryl Gay Stolberg said: "His (Bush's) approval ratings have never rebounded from their post-hurricane plummet." The story later quotes New York Sen. Charles Schumer as saying: "I might argue that this was the worst thing that's happened to George Bush in the whole six years of his presidency." A Reuters dispatch from August 24, as reported in The Washington Post, said: "Katrina, which killed about 1,500 people and displaced hundreds of thousands across four states, was a catalyst for a slide in Bush's poll numbers from which he has only partially recovered."

Yet, despite this apparently widespread conventional wisdom, a close examination of the available Gallup Poll data suggests that while the public did disapprove of how Bush handled Katrina, and the public did downgrade their perception of Bush as a strong and decisive leader, it is difficult to pinpoint a precise and lasting impact of Hurricane Katrina on Bush's overall approval ratings.

Bush's job approval ratings throughout September 2005, were identical to his ratings in August, and although the president's ratings fell in October and November, they had recovered by December of last year and January of this year. Bush's major slide in the ratings occurred in late February through May of this year, and there is little evidence to suggest that this was a result of his handling of Katrina.

Whereas the job approval did not demonstrably change much, what changed in a big way is Bush's competency characteristics. More on the flip.

Written permission to occasionally use Gallup data.

So think about the combination of data.

Newport concludes:

"The drop in Americans' rating of Bush on these dimensions in September occurred at the same time that his overall ratings were holding constant. This supports the theory that the public did not directly translate their perceptions of Bush on some specific qualities relating to his handling of Katrina to their overall evaluation of him.

In short, while certain aspects of Bush's image may have been affected by Katrina, there was not a discernible effect on the highly important, overall approval rating."

Okay, that seems to hold by examining the three graphs. Bush's leadership characteristics especially, and his ability as a manager, took a big hit while his approval ratings stayed constant.

That begs the simple question: why? Why would people conclude that  Bush is not compelent and not even a strong leader and yet  not have the approval ratings drop further than they did?

It seems to me that polling starts running out of answers here.  Of course, one might just as well ask why Bush's approval rating soared after 9-11. As has been analyzed to death elsewhere, it's not like he actually did anything useful in the first 48 hours.

What Bush did (and I wrote about this soon after) is articulate and act on something Americans at the time  deeply desired. Whereas the British saw 9-11 as an affront to the Rule of Law, Americans wanted the message sent that if you kill an American you yourself are dead meat. Bush promised to deliver frontier justice. The fact that subsequent events proved that to be a short-sighted and damaging approach in some ways (see Iraq and the continuing problems in an increasingly unstable Afghanistan) did not and will not deter Bush's base from approving of him (see anything Christopher Hitchens or any other Bush dead-ender says.

Over time, as buyer's remorse sets in, more and more Americans realized that management skills actually count for something. Even those who agree with Bush's plans now fault him on execution (see anything Bill Kristol says). Katrina also exposed Bush's approach to Michal Brown governance - a lack of competence coupled with a lack of any accountability whatsoever (Michael Chartoff is still there, just as Rumsfeld is).

In some ways the polls now act as a lagging, rather than a leading, indicator of Bush's approval. He's lost Dems and indies. He now only has Republicans, and as Charles Franklin has shown, there are limits to how much further Bush can drop without partisan desertions.

It seems that Bush supporters, having nothing else, have rallied around Bush because the alternative is to admit to themselves they were wrong about Bush the man and Bush's policies and that would mean a goodly number of deaths to take into account. There's the ignored PDB and the deaths at the WTC. There's Katrina and the deaths and destruction in the Gulf Coast. There's the deaths in Iraq.

After savaging Democrats (who questioned Bush's legitimacy in 2000) for six years, it's not an easy conclusion to come to that Bush's policies might in some small way have actually affected any of the above, either before or after. What that says about them, I'll leave others to examine. But you'll get a hint when you see the desparate "okay we suck, but imagine what'll happen if those Democrats start running committee chairs in Congress" rhetoric.

What'll happen? Accountability. Now that is a scary proposition.

Comments

[mk]

One problem with polling presidential popularity is that the office itself provides some boost. There are a lot of people out there who dislike Bush immensely as a person and a leader but who feel that they have to support him because he's president. And I'm wondering if that's part of the picture.

[DemFromCT]

mk, I think it is part of it. The polling low for Gallup is 22 for Harry Truman. Nixon, iirc, was 28 or 9. You can't get below that because of blind support for the office or the character.

[Mimikatz]

I think your analysis is more on target than Gallup's. I think Katrina pierced Bush's veil of competence and thereafter, people reacted to specific events or actions (Dubai Ports, gas prices etc) by seeing them as further examples of Bush's incompetence, something only Dem partisans had evidently seen in 2004.

I think your analysis of the problem Bush's base feels is also accurate. This was a problem in the 2004 elections for the Dems--how to persuade people to defect from Bush without making them feel stupid for having supported him.

It should be less of a problem in the midterms because people with buyer's remorse can either stay home or come out and vote for a Dem for Congress on some theory of divided government or checks and balances. The more Bush/Rove/Cheney try to nationalize the election, the more likely at least some of their lukewarm supporters stay home, and the more likely those opposed come out to vote.

[merciless]

Bush's remaining support is all psychological. Just as pundits and reporters have begun walking back their initial assessment of the Iraq war while still carefully maintaining plausible deniability, so are some Americans simply unable to wrap their heads around the idea that we could lose this war. Since they cannot admit that America (= Bush = their own sense of self-worth and cultural identity) is ever wrong about anything, there must be another explanation, no matter how outlandish.

Hence, it's all Kos's fault.

[Mimikatz]

And Rumsfeld is still sayint Iraq is all the Media's fault. How dod we come to be ruled by such delusional people?

[DemFromCT]

I hope to post more info on this; i am trying to plan an interview with some political science mavens who study the interaction between war and publuc opinion beyond Feaver and Gelpi.

More soon...

[demtom]

DemfromCT, I believe you're too modest to credit yourself, but I'll point out that you made this very point just about a year ago: the media contention Katrina had inflicted major damage on Bush's polling numbers was based on nothing. In fact, the year-long barrage of Social Security, Schiavo and especially declining fortunes in Iraq (symbolized by the Cindy Sheehan vigil of last August) had brought the numbers down prior to the storm's landfall. All Katrina maybe did is insure that they'd never go back up again.

In those remarks Mimikatz cites, Rumsfeld says wars are never popular -- which may be the most ridiculous thing ever to come out of his mouth (and the most chutzpah-filled, given how Bush has coasted on war for the better part of his tenure). No, Mr. Secrtary, wars are not inherently unpopular; however, wars that go on indefinitely with no strategy for ending them in sight do have a way of losing public support.

[DemFromCT]

All Katrina maybe did is insure that they'd never go back up again.

That is important.

[Charles]

I just posted a one year retrospective on the impact of Katrina. I disagree with Frank Newport in that I find a clear negative effect of -1.4 percentage points due to Katrina directly. A new post at PoliticalArithmetik spells out the numbers and puts that seemingly small effect in perspective. It is more significant than it looks.

Charles

[DemFromCT]

Charles, you have the advantage of not being tied to Gallup alone! ;-)

Political Arithmetik

[Sara]

I've been playing with a theory that two disconnected matters converge to impact Bush's slide in the second term. The first was the Terri Schivo story, one where Bush, thinking his "values" had won him the 2004 election, acted on his "life" values, entered the Schivo case in a major way. As the story played out, we discovered that about 80% of the Public actually strongly disagreed with Bush. Once the story spun out, and folk spent a couple of weeks watching the crazy types perform their religious demonstration, and the TV folk, to their credit, organized the medical professional side of the debate -- people came down on the side of Government staying out of decisions like that. I think that very much hurt Bush on the dimension "he reflects my values." And he actually got no opportunity to recover, as the narrative went from the deathbed of Terri Schivo to the death watch and death and funeral for the Pope, and then into the election of a new Pope. The major thing Bush was doing during this period was traveling the country pumping his Social Security plans, and the more he pumped, the lower agreement went among the public for his ideas. He started that campaign with about 50% agreeing to listen to his ideas, and by the time he stopped making those speeches, he had lost about 20 points on the Social Security dimension. So add together the "values like mine" dimension to the Social Security policy matter and you see two very significant hits.

I don't think huge numbers "agree" with Cindy Sheahan, but I think Bush's unwillingness to privately meet and talk with her (and defuse her growing celebrity) also hurt badly. Essentially she made him look like a coward. That was the state of things when Katrina happened, and I would suggest his then inability to "get" the painful narrative of the hundreds of thousands who had their lives and homes ripped up in the wake of the storm and flood, built the "Bush is a Coward" dimension outward in a very powerful way. The drop in the polls in early 2006 correspond with the Senate hearings on Katrina, the tape of Bush hearing the pre-storm briefing, asking no questions, and then issuing in the wake of the storm, we "never imagined" statements. Add to that the release of E-Mail, the clear finding that Brownie had been made a scapegoat, and much else -- and you have a Katrina drop that is significant, but only comes when the narrative is clarified in late winter.

The Katrina drop in 2006 winter also occurs just after the last of the Iraqi elections, and the clear difficulty they had in actually forming a government in the wake of the elections. Bush doesn't have another "democracy" card after that last election -- and in the wake of the election, the insurgency just gets worse week by week. Again, I don't think many polling jumps or dips reflect a single point in time (set aside 911 of course), but rather the jumps and dips reflect points when a narrative clarifies.

Late Winter 2006 is the convergence of the Bush indifference to the sufferings in Katrina narrative with the piss poor planning for post War Iraq narrative. Taken together against a background of the realization that his values are not the same as my values (Schivo and Social Security), and you have the 20 point drop in many of the elements in job approval.

What is missing in Bush's slide in the polls is an understanding of why his "War on Terrorism" reputation is holding up at or around 50 percent. It has dropped a little more than ten points since 2004, but still is not reliably below 50%. I've only seen one Democratic attempt at a narrative to drive this down, and that is Harold Ford's excellent campaign ad, where he referrs to the London Bomb plot, and makes the clear statement that it was fine British Police Work that broke the case -- not yet another war. Ford is now a little ahead and within the MOE in his Tennessee race, and Bush has dropped on this dimension in Tennessee. I hope other candidates are taking the hint, and looking for other possible ways to work down Bush's approvals on this dimension.

[DemFromCT]

Sara, very interesting. What people forget is that opposition in a meaningful way (cable coverage of Brownie, Ford's ad campaign) really do matter. Once the Dems begin to actually oppose, it legitimizes news coverage. An extreme example is impeachment. If Joe Lieberman (for the sake of making a point) or any establishemnt DC figure ever suggested Bush might meet grounds for impeachment, every newspaper in the country would be forced to cover it whether their editorial board wanted to or not.

The same is true of Iraq policy earlier, or WoT now. If Dems don't oppose, where is the courageous editor that'll do it on their own?

Here is a very interesting op-ed that's worth looking at, esp[ecially in context with Rummy's response today. The authors state:

Attempts to reframe the American involvement in Iraq will inevitably generate an aggressive rhetorical response [see Rumsfeld - DemFromCT]. Accusations of abandoning the Iraqi people, surrendering to the terrorists and enabling a humanitarian catastrophe will be leveled from critics on the left and the right. A successful reframing of the Iraq war must be combined with a disengagement strategy that addresses these concerns, but realistically acknowledges that public support for the war is waning and the Bush administration does not appear inclined to commit the resources needed to turn things around.

calling it a civil war (and for dems to do so) is the first step in reframing.

[mamayaga]

Speculation about how low Bush can go, and why, is interesting in light of another current discussion of John Dean's book about the authoritarian personality and the right-wing takeover of the Republican party. One message about authoritarians is that they gain psychic security from unquestioning loyalty to a strong leader, an alleigence that can't be shaken by contrary facts, no matter how damning. The idea that about 30% of the American population is authoritarian is being advanced as a reason for Bush's approval remaining stuck in the mid-30's even with the ongoing series of hits being taken by his administration.

However, in this thread commenters have raised two issues for which agreement with Bush dipped well below 30%: the Terri Schiavo affair, in which agreement with Bush's position was about 20%, and Social Security which as I recall bottomed out at around 27%. If the authoritarian personality hypothesis accounted for most of the stabilizing of Bush's JAR in the mid-30's we wouldn't see these very low rates of approval on very important issues prior to his slow decline over the past year. There is something else going on here -- perhaps respect for the office, but that can't account for it completely either, since Truman and Nixon achieved lower approval rates in times when there was probably more respect for the office.

It might be worth revisiting the breathtaking swan dive Nixon's numbers took between his reelection and his resignation. As I recall, he started getting really pummeled when the Watergate plumbers were tried and convicted (and confessed), something that began before the Senate hearings could do much damage -- the hearings were second in the one-two punch. Perhaps we will see the same this winter if Libby's trial occurs around the time the Dems take back Congress and start some long overdue hearings.

[Sara]

While I agree with the importance of Framing -- I very strongly believe in this political era it needs to be done in the context of fairly simple narratives. I know, probably all of us thought Ronald Reagan's little stories were just a bit stupid -- but if you go back and look, that was part of his genius. He could drive one crazy with his trees make the environment worse little tales, but his storytelling actually convinced lots of folk he was on to something. People like it because it can allow the suspension of rational policy debate -- you know the seven point program that will deal with this or that social, economic or political problem.

I am not all that certain Democrats have caught on yet to the power of framing through narratives -- but I certainly recognized today that Rummy is attempting a big one -- trying to frame Iraq as the Facists, and all that, an effort to import the mess in Iraq into the Victory narrative in the World War II saga.

That could be dangerous if it catches on. Dan Benjamin had a comment today that may provide an idea of the proper response -- he got to talking about the stupidity of the term "Islamofacist" and then suggested the use of the more appropriate term, "Jihadist" -- because at least it tells us something fairly accurate about the nature and beliefs of the enemy. If "Jihadist" could become incorporated into a narrative, perhaps it might be possible to frustrate Rummy's intent in using the term Facist.

[Jon]

DemFromCT,

Thanks for a very interesting post. There are some very insightful comments. I think it is important to keep in mind that there is probably some support for the institution versus actual support for the President or his policies. For example, in discussing the latest terror scare, I've noticed that among quite a few of the Republicans that I know (ones who no longer support the President) that they support the President at times of terror scares b/c not to do so would weaken the Presidency and might embolden the terrorists. So, their support is more akin to support for the institution than for the man himself. I was talking to a staunch Democrat from a Union family and she made a similiar point, as long as we were in a war on terror, when terror plots happen we have to support the President or the terrorists might become emboldened b/c they might perceive the President as being weakened by lack of public support.

So, perhaps when terror scares focus the voters' minds on terror then there occurs a natural rallying around the President effect, although this is not support for the man but for the office he holds. It would be interesting for a pollster to attempt to gauge the level of institutional support versus support for the President himself.

[demtom]

To follow up on that, Jon, an interesting question is, how meaningful is that rally-round effect in terms of votes 10 weeks from now? The press is always eager to suggest that a blip upward in the polls will be beneficial to the GOP on Election Day. But if it's strictly this pro-forma "I don't want to embolden terrorists" response, and has no impact on approval of Bush and his party, can it be dismissed as meaningless statistical noise? The only reason I don't offer a resounding yes is, I thought some of the support for the GOP in both '02 and '04 was similarly based on nothing but baseline patriotism...yet they were able to parley it into victories that were otherwise not assured.

As far as the whole framing/opposition issue -- I've often wondered if Bush's former massive edge on terrorism, while somewhat based in simple incumbency, endured as long as it did because so few Democrats offered even a hint of alternative narrative. (One exception many don't even know about: John Kerry, who was arguing "Why didn't use our army to capture bin Laden at Tora Bora?" as far back as January '03) One of the really nasty effects of DLC-domination of the party foreign policy apparatus is, the DLC doesn't believe in debate; they believe in accepting the GOP advantage and "innoculating" against it. Yes, it would have taken guts to stand against Bush when his numbers were riding high, but, remember, Republicans kept screaming how loathsome Clinton was when his numbers were astronomical. It doesn't seem to have hurt them; in fact, it got them close enough to steal an election Dems should have won convincingly.

[Sara]

In a recent piece by Daniel Benjamin responding to Bush's adoption of the "Islamofacism" language, Benjamin made the argument that in addition to the term being offensive to Millions of Muslims who in no way are an Enemy -- the term was wrong because it misdirected our understanding of the actual characteristics of the real enemy. Facist rings American's bells by calling up images of Hitler's marching legions, blitzkreig, death camps, Nurenburg Rallies and all -- and absolutely none of this has anything at all to do with the current situation. Instead, Benjamin suggested using the term "Jihadist" because at least it directed attention to the religious source of motivation to seek martyrdom in acts of terrorism.

That's a small frame inside a much larger one that also can illuminate differences between a theme of Clinton's foreign policy approach and that of the neo-con's and Bush. In their book, "The Age of Sacred Terror" Steve Simon and Benjamin spend much effort trying to describe the necessary paradigm shift from the way the world was seen during the Cold War -- and thus how the US built security institutions, and how actors in the foreign policy, intelligence and military built expertise and careers -- and the world's characteristics in the age of Sacred Terror -- the post Cold War World. The "Facist" is an artifact of the Cold War and pre-Cold War age -- the "Jihadist" a product of the Sacred Terror age. The former assumes nation states, the second is transnational and probably assumes weak nation states.

Proper strategy depends on getting right these underlying assumptions, and it could well be that this is a fruitful place to debate some Republicans -- particularly those who lean toward the "Islamofacist" language. The question is how you build these concepts into a narrative that is fairly easy to follow.

[albee]

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