By Mimikatz
Everyone's talking about Bob Novak's new column saying that if the election were held today, the GOP would probably lose 26 House seats, putting the Dems, who need 15 seats, well in the majority. Is this realistic? As DemfromCT is fond of reminding us, polls are not predictors; they are snapshots. But the available evidence suggests that Novak is at least in the ballpark with his estimate, and that things could get much worse for the GOP.
First, the trends. Back in February, the Cook Political Report listed 9 Republican-held seats as toss-ups; now there are 17, and one R seat, Tom Delay's TX-22, is listed as "Lean Dem." No Dem-held seats are listed as toss-ups. The Republicans now have only 178 safe seats according to Cook, compared to 182 safe Dem seats. The GOP has given up hope of capturing any Dem-held seats and is entirely playing defense. And they do not have the cash to help every endangered incumbent as there are so many, and the Dems are raising money far above previous levels.
Polls are showing several Dem challengers ahead or within the margin of error. A list of polls, updated frequently, can be found at TPM Cafe's Election Central, along with frequent updates on the races. Among those challengers who have polled ahead are Lois Murphy in PA-06 (Gerlach), Mike Acuri in NY-24 (open seat), Heath Shuler in NC-11 (Taylor) and Joe Donnelly in IN-02 (Chocola). Tied or within the MOE are Bruce Braley in IA-01(open), Patricia Madrid in NM-01 (Wilson), John Cranley in OH-01 (Chabot) and Paul Hodes in NH-02 (Bass). Incumbents such as Nancy Johnson in CT-05 and Marilyn Musgrave in CO-04 are 4-5 points ahead of their challengers, but still below 50%. And as Josh Marshall noted, the GOP has polled at least 28 competitive seats, and released none of the polls.
Finally, everyone knew in February that there would be fierce competition for CT-02, 04 and 05, for FL-22 and KY-04 and NM-01 and PA-06, 07 and 08, and for the open seats in AZ-08, CO-07, IA-01, IL-06, MN-06 and NY-24. But who thought that DeLay and Ney would resign, leaving TX-22 and OH-18 open and vulnerable? And who thought such formerly safe R seats as CA-11 (Pombo), CO-04 (Musgrave), ID-01 (open), OH-02 (Schmidt) and WY-AL (Cubin) would look vulnerable, or that Republicans would be openly supporting the Dem candidate in ID-01 and CO-05?
Nothing, of course, is certain. The modern GOP may not be any good at governing, but it can win elections. It will take more work and more money to make it happen, but taking the House is doable. Check below for my evaluations of the most likely seats to turn.
The best chances for the Dems are in the Northeast and Ohio Valley. The best long-shots are in the West, away from the DC consensus and where folks have a real streak of independence.
In the "most likely" I would put the open seats in AZ-08, CO-07, IA-01, TX-22, NY-24 and MN-06, and possibly OH-18 in the Dem column, as well as PA-06 and 07, CT-02 and 04, FL-22 (Shaw), NM-01, IN-02, 08 and 09, KY-04 (Davis), and NC-11 to be in the Dem column. Next most likely, PA-08, NH-02, IL-06 (Open), OH-15 (Pryce), NY-20 (Sweeny), PA-10 (Sherwood) and WA-08 (Reichert). That is 25 seats.
If things swing even more to the Dems there could be surprises for one or more of the incumbents in AZ-01 (Renzi), AZ-05 (Hayworth), CA-11 (Pombo), CO-04 (Musgrave), CT-05 (Johnson), IL-10 (Kirk), KY-03 (Northrup), MN-01 (Gutknecht), NH-01 (Bradley), NJ-07 (Ferguson), NY-25 (Walsh), NY-29 (Kuhl), NV-03 (Porter), OH-02 (Schmidt), VA-02 (Drake), WI-08 (open), WY-AL (Cubin) and maybe even FL-13 (Open), ID-01 (Open), NE-01 (Fortenberry) and NY-03 (King).
Novak apparently got his 26 seats for the Dems by giving the Dems all of his "toss-up" seats as well as his "likely Dem" seats. We pretty much agree on the most vulnerable seats. I have CO-07, IN-02 and WA-08 rated higher; he has WI-08 (which I don't know much about) higher. He doesn't have IL-10, MN-01, NJ-07, NY-25, or NY-29 as being in play.
Good places to keep on top of things are TPM Cafe's election central, linked in the post, and the DCCC Stakeholder blog.
Of course, at this point, handicapping the races is somewhat fantasy football.
Posted by: Mimikatz | August 24, 2006 at 14:01
TX-22 is almost a guaranteed Dem. pickup. Winning as a write-in in Texas is virtually impossible. As a former constituent of Tom DeLay, that makes me unbelievably happy.
Posted by: William Ockham | August 24, 2006 at 14:21
Here's one that's not on anyone's radar: Nancy Skinner in MI-09. She released an internal poll today showing her within the margin of error. 44-40. I'd be really cautious about that until we see confirmation. But geez--if we can pickup a seat in uber-gerrymandered MI, then we're talking landslide territory.
Posted by: emptywheel | August 24, 2006 at 14:42
And don't forget about retired Lt. Col. Charles Brown in CA-04 against Republican Congressman John Doolittle. This race has become quite the talk here in California, and he's been making some impressive gains with Republicans and non-partisans. People should be putting this guy on their radar!
Posted by: Neil | August 24, 2006 at 16:45
I am aware of CA-04 and almost put it on the "surprise" list. Doolittle has been representing that district for forever, it is very sprawling, and has a PVI of R+ll. But Doolittle has gotten bad press, and Brown is a good candidate, so who knows. Let's add it.
Is Joe Knollenberg the Incumbent in MI-09? He won with 58% of the vote. Don't know the PVI for that district. I think there are alot of districts where the R's have been winning against underfunded challengers because too much effort was concentrated on too few races. With more money and more candidates, we should really spread the field this time. The upside of gerrymandering for the Dems is that they have a lot of really safe seats, while the R's have more marginal ones. We'll see if the spread the field theory works.
Posted by: Mimikatz | August 24, 2006 at 17:26
Here's another that is way under the radar and that the Arizona Republic thinks is a real race - depending on who wins the Dem primary on Sept 12th - AZ-02 against Republican Trent Franks. The Republic thinks that if "Chat" Chatterjee wins the primary, Franks will have the first real contested election of his career.
Posted by: Jan Ziff | August 24, 2006 at 17:27
As I said, the West may be the land of surprises. Good news from AZ.
Posted by: Mimikatz | August 24, 2006 at 17:33
I predicted three months ago (to my Democratic Women's Club)that the Dems would take 22 seats in the House. We have some $$ riding on this - just how many seats we actually do take in November. BTW - you don't have to go to Foxwoods to gamble in CT! Have been checking with various websites on the possibilities for longer than that - maybe six months. This is very doable!
It's the Senate seats that I'm more concerned about. I think we definately have PA, MO and MI. TN is looking stronger, as is my state of CT. Lieberman leads by only 2 pts two weeks after the primary. So that leaves VA, OH, RI, MN, NV and AZ as 'iffy'. It's still early, folks. Anyone know which of these states, besides OH and PA, use the Diebold machines?
Posted by: bboop | August 24, 2006 at 17:44
Mimikatz wrote "The modern GOP may not be any good at governing, but it can win elections."
So true! A reason is that Dems have traditionally had a political strategy of traingulation which meant not taking a position or attacking their opponents hard. In 1994 the Repubs morphed every Dem candidate into Clinton and villified him. They came across as the candidates with principle and a definite viewpoint - less government, etc.
I don't see that many Dems really making a case that their Repub opponent is a water-carrier for the discredited Bush and hanging the millstone on Iraq which is the biggest issue in all the voter polls. As MyDD adwatch is uncovering many Dems (and so it seems many Repubs) are not advertising their party affiliation.
Will the Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as they have done in many past elections? Or is the tide so strong this time that it will lift many Dem boats?
Posted by: ab initio | August 24, 2006 at 18:31
If things swing even more to the Dems there could be surprises for one or more of the incumbents in ...
TX-23 should be in that list too. Bonilla isn't that popular in the district, and if it were open, the Democrats would pick it up.
Posted by: blank | August 24, 2006 at 20:43
Minnesota's 1st could go Dem by default. In order to make a point about how penny-pinching he is, Gil Gutknecht filed by petition rather than paying his $300 filing fee, and it turned out his petition signitures were collected long ago, way outside the window for collecting them. DFL filed a case to have him removed from the ballot, and in this situation, the State Supreme Court heard the case directly. They haven't filed a decision yet, but his signatures apparently included dead people and folk who had moved and are no longer first district voters. Decision should come down next week. If I properly understand state law on this, the State GOP cannot substitute someone else unless he were to resign. You can substitute if a candidate dies (Wellstone) of if the candidate resigns (Grundseth) but not if the vacancy is a result of illegal electorial proceedure. Sometimes things like trying to make a point by not paying the state in cash for your filing fee, turns around and bites.
Tonight that district was hit by a mass of tornados, and it still is not clear if any towns were hit. But there is massive damage along a path perhaps 60 miles long. No word of personal injury yet, but one report of an area where it rained sheet-rock and 2x4's. So something clearly got swept away.
On the Minnesota Senate Race, Klobuchar is way ahead of Kennedy perhaps by 12 points. She has been polling in the mid 50's now for about two months. Patty Wetterling (MN 6) is also doing well, I expect her to come out in the 54-56 range. Bush was here yesterday to raise money for the R -- apparently they only got about 2/3rds of what was projected. The opponent Bachman, has only one issue -- she is anti-Gay Marriage, and the district apparently thinks there are a few other issues this year. Clinton is coming in for Wetterling quite soon.
Posted by: Sara | August 24, 2006 at 21:55
Concur re CA-04. A longtime resident told me that the 65+ set is practically seething about Doolittle. This is anecdotal, of course, but he was surprised anybody could possibly have thought otherwise.
Posted by: bleh | August 24, 2006 at 23:16
Ab ibitio--take a look at Patricia Madrid's "copntrast" ad now up at the Stakeholder. She also has one attacking Wilson for taking tons of money from oil interests and promises to work against global warming if elected. BTW, the main story up right now is about Mean Jean Schmidt, who may have falsely claimed to have run well in a marathon using a doctored photo--unlike the other runners, she casts no shadow. (Die Frau Ohne Schatten, for you other opera buffs.)
On the Senate side, MI is not a pickup, as Mark Dayton is retiring. CT also doesn't count as a pick-up. MT looks good. We will have a better sense of RI after the primary Sept 12, but Whitehouse looks in good shape. Polling has shown Brown ahead of DeWine in OH. AZ isn't going well, but VA and TN look more promising. So it would require the Dems to take PA, RI, OH, MO, MT and one of TN, VA or NV, while not losing anything. Not impossible. I think Chuck Todd is right that the races on the cusp often all break the same way.
Posted by: Mimikatz | August 24, 2006 at 23:48
Any joy in NY-20? I'd love to see Sweeney get taken down.
Posted by: Tom | August 25, 2006 at 16:40
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Posted by: albertino | October 31, 2007 at 05:50