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August 03, 2006

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Well, we made it to Tisha B'Av, let's finish this war and go home! This news is too happy.

Imprtant update from the stamford advocate:

Colbert's Offer Fails To Lure Lieberman Onto TV Show.

Yowie gazowie. I've become so used (over the past five years) to electoral outcomes not matching my feel for the gestalt that I had braced myself for bad, or at least inconclusive, news this morning. And, as you suggest, I don't count any chickens before next Tuesday. But the strong implication here, combined with so much of the individual Senate and House polling, is that we're not dreaming; people truly are alert to the horror this country has become, and they're ready to take drastic steps to reverse it.

I can't quite remember (too lazy to do a search), but how far ahead was Lieberman only a short time ago (say, four months)? It's very rare to see races completely alter like this so quickly -- I'm recalling Mario Cuomo catching up to a seemingly unbeatable Ed Koch in the '82 gubernatorial primary; maybe Harris Wofford over Dick Thornburgh in the '91 PA special election. Any other good examples?

By the way, no one's mentioned it, but I thought Lamont did extremely well with Colbert the other night. Granted, Stephen didn't use the full-on disorientation techniques with which he usually favors his guests, but Lamont managed to convey that he got the jokes even while giving a serious presentation. And, either some image consultant got hold of him or he improved on his own, but that whole touch-of-geek many of us saw in the debate was wholly absent; he actually looked kind of cool.

Al Franken helped him; he was told to stay serious and let Colbert be Colbert. my wife, not a big Lamont fan (but will vote against Joe) said, well, he's inexperienced but obviously he is capable of learning. That counts for something.

I think Arthur Goldberg and Rocky, but I'm an old man.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
PRIMARY VOTERS.......
Aug 3 Jul 20 Jun 8

Lieberman 41 47 55
Lamont 54 51 40

Thank you so much, DemfromCT, for including a snippet that, finally, explains how to pronouce Quinnipiac.

Turnout is important, no question about it, but momentum is momentum, and it is going in only one direction. Joenertia is clearly his own worst enemy--the more you see, the more you dislike him.

Personally, I would like to see a rejection that gets Lieberman out of the race, but I'd settle for a Lamont win. And, coupled with this news about the congressional races is, it seems things are at least going in the right direction for a change.

Dem, how reliable are the numbers (or to be more precise Quinnipiac)? It looks too good to be true, which usually means...

Q-poll is very good. It's not infallible (only the Field Poll in CA can claim that), and all the caveats are listed, but this is up there amongst the best.

Note the press is catching on.

Also not there might be an SEIU 1199 endorsement in the works for Lamont (Daily News blog).

Important note in that Wash. Post article DemFromCT links to: the idea that a bad defeat in the primary could cook Lieberman's goose (first time I've seen that thought expressed in mainstream media). I have to feel the reporter might have been hearing that from Dem party higher-ups.

The reference in the article to the "once popular" Lieberman irked me a bit. Yeah, I guess you could say he's been popular in CT, insofar as he's won by substantial margins, though how much of that is standard incumbents-can't-be-challenged (my parents have never liked him, but felt they had no choice in the matter) combined with CT's general Dem tilt (Didn't polls in 2000 show Lieberthal would have won just as easily?)? And it REALLY burned my butt over the weekend, when Gloria Borger on CBS said "Lieberman was once so popular with Democrats he was their vice-presidential candidate". Umm...Gloria...if you haven't heard, party votes get zero input into a vice-presidential selection; one man alone selects him. And the reaction of most people I know to his being named in 2000 was a very loud groan.

Of course, she may mean "popular with the press", which we all know is what really counts.

7 Israelis killed, DemfromCT! Nobody is going home soon.

Ah, someone at MyDD posted this; these were the sort of polls I had in mind:

"Qunnipiac, Feb. 16, 2006

In a possible Democratic primary, the incumbent Lieberman beats businessman Ned Lamont 68 - 13 percent."

That, my friends, is a meltdown.

From my days as a WBAI reporter, I know that 1199 is a pretty big deal in NYC. But is 1199 on the ground and active in CT?

The Irony is that the "Meltdown" the Q Poll seems to have documented (We'll see how accurately on Tuesday) is precisely what happened to Joe Lieberman's Senate Mentor, Rudy Boschwitz, in 1990. Now that was a General Election, and it was a DFLer against a Republican -- but things started out with Wellstone having something like 17% Name Recognition right after the June Convention, and Boschwitz something like 67% polled support.

Local political scientists who studied that campaign eventually came to understand it as illustrative of the Broad but not Deep sort of support. Once you get an acceptable, likeable, interesting, trustworthy alternative in position to contest -- then you can wash away a thin veneer of what polls as "support" but really is less than that -- it is the absence of an acceptable alternative.

Lieberman's biggest problem, I would suggest is not so much the war, but his failure over the past 18 years to drill into CT civil society, build significant relationships, and anchor himself there rather than in non CT circles such as the DLC, his Lobby friends, his PAC relationships, the national as opposed to the state press. This is precisely what made Boschwitz vulnerable to Wellstone -- though the topics and associations were a little different.

If this comes out more or less like the poll -- what it ought to tell us is how to look for who else might be vulnerable, and what kinds of candidates might best exploit the weaknesses. In this cycle the only other race I see that looks a little like this is Jack Carter's in Nevada, and yes, Testor's in Montana. (Just this week it appears Carter has picked up 5 points, running just 7 behind the incumbant.) It would be nice if Webb's Campaign in VA could catch some of this -- he is a good candidate, and I think Allen is vulnerable on the broad but not deep score.

Thanks as usual for the MN background, Sara.

I've been hoping throughout this cycle that a sleeper race might emerge, akin to Frist/Sasser in '94 (which wasn't even on anyone's radar at this date). Carter/Ensign might be it -- though Ensign has some solid roots, the state itself has become almost the quintessential purple state, presidentially, and the tidal-wave quality of this year could bring it into play.

I share your hopes about Webb -- it's hard for me to believe Virginians could be that enthused about Allen (he barely beat Robb, who'd only survived '94 because of North's matching radioactivity). But polls so far have been quite discouraging. Maybe this whole Lamont race should teach us to show patience with polling results.

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