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August 30, 2006

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That's a great post EW...and it helps make sense of the actions of the various paries involved in this mad kabuki dance betweem Iran and the good ole US of A...

'wheel

I know it's off-topic, but given the ferocity of that attack on Patrick Fitzgerald, given the ferocity of the rhetoric spouted against Powell and Armitage across rightwing talk radio today (so I’m told), I would say this is all far from over. Movement afoot, in fact.

EW, I heard the second part of the same program, and I remember that Cirincione stressed that the current regime was a duly elected one through a democratic election. I did not feel at all that he was in agreement with regime change. As a matter of fact, I was overjoyed to hear what he had to say in an open, honest manner. I will listen, again, tonight, just to hear both sides in light of your post.

I couldn't get EW's link to the show to work. try here for Ledeen and here for Cirincione

Margaret

I agree Cirincione was much much more balanced than Ledeen. But he did make a gratuitous dismissal on Iran, which is how Teri got him into his regime change contradiction.

But that's part of the point--if we're not going to regime change everywhere (and Cirincione says we can't and shouldn't), then we need to think about ways to engage, rather than attack other regimes, even if we hate them.

The Iranian threat is NOT, I repeat, NOT serious. Iranian uranium ore is contaminated with molydenum & they (nor anyone else) do not know how to separate it out. That, plus other difficulties, will delay any kind or serious nuclear bomb program for a very long time. Well beyond our need to worry about it now. Besides, DPRK already has nukes & does anyone seriously think they're going to attack us or South Korea? Maybe sell something bad to terrorists if they can trump up enough plausible deniability, but even that seems like a low probability.

Iran hasn't directly attacked the U.S. or any other country for decades. I think I read that they haven't launched a full scale war against another country for 1,000 years, though it might not be quite that long. In the neighborhood, Israel, Saudi Arabia, & Pakistan all have more powerful militaries & 2/3 have nukes. (Though I wouldn't hesitate to laugh if Saudi Arabia ever tried to use its military in battle condtions.) So Iran in not going to attack the U.S., except via proxy, which doesn't hurt us.

So let's talk. What's the downside? Besides, I'm itching to see that live, televised debate between Ahmedinejad & W. I'll bet the former would win, even if he were forced to speak English.

eCAHN

That's kind of the point--how do we define a threat. I agree, wholeheartedly, that Iran is not a nuclear threat. But our push to regime-change in Iran is an attempt to upset an emerging balance of power in the ME that really does threaten our ability to live on the cash reserves of the rest of the world and fuel our economy cheaply.

EW--baloney--what you describe could not by any definition be called a threat. There is no emerging balance of power in the ME. There is only a continual creation of accelerating chaos in the ME by Israel & US. And how do the Chinese financing the U.S. deficit in any way tie into U.S. causing regime change in Iran? That's truly bizarre. Yes, of course there's a long chain of events that connects to two, but REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN--give me a break. (I feel like one of those wingnuts who uses all capitals and bolds, just like they accuse us of doing.) Regime change in Iran, in the first instance, would create higher oil prices, which would hurt U.S. finances, n'est pas? And after that all bets are off. Dontcha think there's a better way?

The "war" has been rumbling along ever since the US backed the establishment of Israel in a manner that the whole of the ME saw as very unfair to the Palestinians. It shocked them some coming from the US, bc they did not have the history of imperialism with the US and they had a vision of it as a more honest broker over time and esp after the stinging losses from the six day war, big chunks of the disenfranchised populations (the problem isn't an "Iranian" or "Iraqi" problem - it is a ME?Egypt and Islamic issue that is trending throughout Africa and Indonesia) became more and more upset with the US support of elitist or dictatorial govts that did nothing for their people and the seeming US(and their own Govts) oblivion to the Palestinians.

Iran actually has/had the best opportunities in the ME for structured change over time, as it was the best shot at a democracy and was feeling pressure from it's youth to loosen on the fundamentalist front. HOwever, the Iraq war shot us in the foot with getting a beneficial change in Iran. THose who think that we can add to the assault and affront of the Iraqi occupation, bombing of Muslims in their own country (Iran) and walk away with any support within the country are nuts.

Becoming a much more honest broker of the Palestinian situation (and I am VERY PRO ISRAEL) would go a tremendous way. Removing "infidel" occupation from Iraq - goes further. Showing an interest in encouraging oil companies to invest in the POPULATIONS and infrastructure (as opposed to bribes and Royal Family fetes) of the countries whose resources are being drained, so that they have some future when alternatives take hold, would go a long way.

No "shock and awe" approach will win a better relationship with Iran, which is really what they mean by "regime change" except that Ledeen means, more specifically, one that will not complain of anything Israel does. That is just not realistic and won't happen. The region has had far too much wealth bilked from it for people not to get serious about addressing the real issues and the only "regime change" that will be a possibel beneficial outcome will be a change within the US to seize back a position of honest broker and to refocus efforts on tolerance and education - at home first then abroad - as the real avenue of winning the battle.

IMO, FWIW

eCAHN

I agree absolutely that regime change is going to fail. Ledeen (who claims not to want war) and the Neocons are wrong in two things. First--that the dollar hegemony is sustainable in ANY case. It's not. Global warming will get us if nothing else. And second--that we can win a war with Iran. Even before the Lebanese invasion, I was not sure we could do so. We're too exposed in terms of oil requirements, debt, and military over-extension.

Mary

Well said. Not much to add--but thanks for the comment.

Mary--
The astounding thing about the US muckup in Iraq & Israeli muckup in Lebanon is how utterly irrelevant the military has become--no matter how powerful.

IMO--
All that stuff about US honest broker & chances for democracy in Iran, while true, are now utterly irrelevant also. In the past. Cannot be resurrected (even by the evangelists).

US is now on the wings of fortune. Can't control our future. W et al will make the worst of it. Perhaps if there's a D House next year, it might not be an utter disaster. But I'm not holding my breath.

Can't resist the nostalgia--Clinton (Bill, not Hill, who is more pragmatic but not conceptual enough to figure out what to try) would be able to figure out the solution to the Rubic's cube--it's a trial & error process & takes high intelligence, high effort, great persistence.

It's that, largely through our own doing, we have set up our interests to directly conflict with Iran.

At the same time, some of the strengthening of Iranian influence has also been a result of the Bush administration unilaterally ceding diplomatic influence either by refusing to engage or by resorting to taunts and provocation with other regional players. This has in turn made human intelligence gathering more difficult.

I typed too fast and without reading/proofing above, so I am glad you could sort it out. I agree that there is a misplaced reliance on the sustainabliy of the dollar hegemony. eCAHNomics, by the military being irrelevant I gather that you are referring to its ability to accomplish the goal (regime change) as opposed to its ability to do huge and sustained damage. It can do the later unfortunately, but primarily at the cost of the ultimate goal. (A recent Digby post compares the neocons to a story of a young girl found swinging her cat by the tail in circles on the concrete muttering "you will love me" and that about sums it up) In general people will not voluntarily (e.g., when given a democratic vote process) support those who invade their countries, bomb their infrastructures, leave their countrymen dead, etc. When you add in the Islamic proscriptions of invaders & infidels, history with crusaders, and long teeming frustrated anger with the West - it seems incredible that anyone would even think a bombing assault at this point in time is a way to win hearts and minds.

I don't know what playground someone like Bolton or Cheney grew up on, but they failed to learn its lessons.

I also agree the US has lost its "honest broker" claim for the existing generation in the ME. But if we all survive, groundwork has to begin to be laid for the next coming generation and how it will interact with the US. We have to begin to act with credibility and some code of justice, even with no immediate payoff. It's tilling the field and collecting the seed time.

And people whose lives are very difficult can be won over by having someone dig in and address their needs. It is in part how Hezbollah has garnered strength. We could do it better, if we would.

eCAHNomics,

"Iranian uranium ore is contaminated with molydenum & they (nor anyone else) do not know how to separate it out."

do you have a source for that? That's the first time I've heard that point?

There have been reports of Iran having a problem with molybdenum, but this is not a showstopper. If the moly gets to the hexafluoride stage, it can be distilled out. Moly hexafluoride has a boiling point of 35 C, and uranium hexafluoride's is around 56 C. That's a pretty easy difference for distillation, although I suspect that the major removal is earlier.

Source for boiling points: Handbook of Chemistry and Physics.

We need to be careful in making statements like this. There's no one showstopper, but many little things that can go wrong or take time to solve in a nuclear program. It makes more sense to look at other programs by countries with similar expertise and motivation if we want to assess Iran's likely timeline.

But we have to keep in mind that it hasn't been shown unambiguously that Iran is going for a bomb. I'd argue they want the capability so that they can play a similar game to Israel's.

KdmFromPhila

One of the few really critical but unplayed facts--molybenum in Iranian uranium ore.
1. I first heard it at a Scott Ritter presentation at SUNY-New Paltz in 2/06. He was quite certain & quite dogmatic about it--you know Scott Ritter's demeanor. Said it was the "one" thing we needed to know about Iran's nuke program.
2. I checked it out with some chemistry friends of mine who seemed to agree that the separation would be problematic, but they are not nuclear chemists.
3. I believe there was a post on armscontrolwonk.com in spring/summer that further buttressed the point.
None of these are dispositive in my opinion (I was a science major so no hypothesis is ever proved, but still just waiting to be disproved), but I think the evidence is robust.

I'm going to disagree with emptywheel on this one. I think she makes a really good case that we are a threat to Iran, but I see no evidence that Iran is a threat to us. In this context, I'll use this definition (from Ian Brownlie, via wikipedia):

a threat of force consists of an express or implied promise by a government of a resort to force conditional on non-acceptance of certain demands of that government.

We've made lots of these kinds of threats vis a vis Iran, but I don't see the reverse at all, despite actions and claims that we've made that, were the situations reversed, we would certainly respond to with threat of the use of force, if not actual armed conflict.

Last week James Dobbins said that Iran's only desired concession from the US was to abandon regime change.

The US shooting down an Iranian jetliner, killing about 300 civilians, in the '80's didn't come up in the discussion of Iranian/US hostilities?

Is 'Fresh Air' the program that lets Ted Koppel spew his anti-Iranian lies?

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