The Greater Middle Eastern War

by emptywheel

Like Arthur Silber, I fear that events in the Middle East are designed to spiral out of control, right into Persia.

[OH, BROTHER:  I've said it before, and I'll say it again: It's All About Iran.  As I wrote:

If for whatever particular combination of reasons the attack on Iran doesn't come before the November elections (and perhaps even as early as this summer), it will certainly come before the end of Bush's term.

Drudge is now hawking this latest story:

Israel has information that Lebanese guerrillas who captured two Israeli soldiers are trying to transfer them to Iran, the Foreign Ministry spokesman said. Spokesman Mark Regev did not disclose the source of his information.

One more time:  They want a wider war.  They've already decided to attack Iran.

There are several signs to support that. The immediate US blame placed on Syria. The apparent US disinterest in pulling Israel back from the brink. And now allegations involving Iran.

But I disagree with Silber as to the US response. If this is indeed an attempt to spin the Middle East out of control before diplomacy and agreement in the Security Council precipitates peace, then I think it's a desperate gambit by Israel and the Neocons taken because they realized they're losing the debate in the US.

I've long suspected that, if Israel and its US allies couldn't shape US policy to their interests, using whatever means necessary, they might adjust the reality in the Middle East to force the US' hand.

And there are certainly those allies of the Israeli hawks pushing to make this a regional war. Take my favorite, Michael Ledeen:

No one should have any lingering doubts about what’s going on in the Middle East. It’s war, and it now runs from Gaza into Israel, through Lebanon and thence to Iraq via Syria. There are different instruments, ranging from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon and on to the multifaceted “insurgency” in Iraq. But there is a common prime mover, and that is the Iranian mullahcracy, the revolutionary Islamic fascist state that declared war on us 27 years ago and has yet to be held accountable.

[snip]

The only way we are going to win this war is to bring down those regimes in Tehran and Damascus, and they are not going to fall as a result of fighting between their terrorist proxies in Gaza and Lebanon on the one hand, and Israel on the other. Only the United States can accomplish it.

But remember, Ledeen has fallen rather out of favor of late. I even strongly suspect he's behind Peter Hoakstra's recent squawking--apparently his wife was behind Hoakstra's "find." So while there's no doubt Ledeen would like this to turn into a regional war, it's not clear he's got the clout to push the issue.

But the biggest piece of evidence that events in the Middle East may represent just one faction of the US, attempting to force the rest of the Administration into its warmongering stance, is Steve Clemons' latest rumor:

Although I do not have independent confirmation, I heard the rumor from a well-placed source that Secretary of State Rice attempted to increase pressure on Israel to stand down and to demonstrate "restraint". The rumor is that she was told flatly by the Prime Minister's office to "back off".

If Clemons is right, then the outbreak of war in the Middle East comes in spite of Condi's warning to Israel.

And once again, presumably, Shrub is so weak and pathetic he either has already adopted the script from Wormwood, or he won't be able to enforce the stated policy of the country. If events in the Middle East are a result of one faction forcing the hand of the other faction, chances are good that Bush won't affect it positively one way or another.

Never thought I'd say this. But let's hope that Condi achieves what Powell never managed to. Winning the debate within the Administration and ensuring the victorious policy gets implemented.

Update: And here's another bit from an earlier Clemons post I meant to link to,

One has to wonder whether Israel's reaction -- so dramatically different than in the past -- is designed to REMOVE from the table certain options America might prefer to have with the Palestinians, with the broader Arab region, and even -- eventually -- with Iran.

Israel's actions may be less directed towards recovering their soldiers than they are designed to dramatically alter America's options in the Middle East. Some inside the Bush administration are already grumbling privately about the character of Israel's responses to its recent security breaches.

The word "disproportionate" is not only coming from Arab Gulf nations and the Europeans, it is also a word being whispered in the halls of the Old Executive Office Building and the White House -- as long as Elliott Abrams is not in listening distance.

Comments

[William Ockham]

I think you mispelled the Congressman's name. I think meant Hoaxtra.

[Daniel DiRito]

The Middle East may now be evidence of what happens when the world’s sole superpower abandons any semblance of detente. Read an analysis on how Dick Cheney sees the current U.S. foreign policy as the culmination of three decades of strategic efforts to position America as the sole occupant at the top of the power pyramid…here:

www.thoughttheater.com

[ab initio]

In the current environment where disinformation is a multi-billion dollar business with the Rendon Groups of the world who knows what is fact and what is fiction.

I think an important approach to analysis should be about who gains financially.

Ever since the Hamas electoral victory, Olmert has been quite categorical that the Hamas government would be toppled. As the Israeli response to the recent kidnapping of its soldiers expands and the reprisals on all sides grow the options get more and more limited for all parties. The Cheneyites run the national security apparatus and Bush may want to double his bets egged on by them (read Billmon's Flight Forward posts).

But engaging Iran into a military and violent confrontation means all rationality has been lost. So the key to this developing story is to watch for the propaganda signs that enable fear and loathing to engulf the American public and the Dems DC leadership cowering. Its going to take something spectacular for the American public to acquiesce to the Cheneyites growing dark side battle.

[William Ockham]

And I'll say again what I've said here before. There won't be a war with Iran because we can't sustain it. We can't sustain a war with Iran because they out-foxed the Bush administration. They baited the Neocons into attacking Iraq, pinning the U.S. down in a battlefield of Iran's choosing.

[4jkb4ia]

Via DovBear, Pelosi, Hoyer, and Reid issued statements condemning Hizbollah very strongly and asking for it to give back the Israeli soldiers. Via Haaretz Ahmedinejad has threatened Israel if it should attack Syria. So the onus is now on Israel to claim that Iran is more responsible than Haaretz has forwarded to us or to take the risk if Syria is responsible. emptywheel is right to observe that the burden of proof is on the most right-wing Israelis here.

[4jkb4ia]

"Asked if there was a danger of the area slipping into war, Rice said: "I think it doesn't help to speculate about kind of apocalyptic scenarios. What we have to do is work day by day, hour by hour. That's what we're doing, and that's what a lot of others are doing.""

2 cheers!

[4jkb4ia]

This time of year begins a three-week mourning period until Tisha B'Av. To correct my earlier post on Kos Nebuchadnezzar began besieging Jerusalem on the 10th of Tevet, but according to rabbis yesterday is the anniversary of his breaching the wall. The religious constituency may believe that this war is part of the end of the world. But they will not believe that Israel can get any triumph out of it for three weeks, and will almost certainly believe that it is an opportunity for people to do teshuva since there are no atheists in foxholes and all that. I myself thought that this may cause Lieberman to reflect on the way he has been campaigning.

[John Casper]

This is the "Bloody Kansas" stage of the civil war in the Middle East.
It seems to me Dems can argue that this is precisely what's wrong with out $267,000,000/day occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan, it only makes Iran (and Russia) stronger. This is why all the experts told Bush not to invade.

[Mimikatz]

This is insanity. The extremists in all countries seem to be in charge. Rationality has gone out the window. What IS it with these people?

[americanforliberty]

Another issue that arises in the context is the USA's relationship with Israel. As Israel bombs Gaza and Beriut and with the resulting death of Muslim civilians how does this play in the Muslim world. I ask that you do not take that this as being anti-Israel, but at times we must tell our best friends to show restraint or at least pull them aside and ask is all this necessary. And if as our best friends cannot accept our words of restraint, then to abstain at the Security Council is always an option.

Because I cannot see this, Israel bombing of Beriut & Gaza, as helping the American GI on the trying to build a relationship with the Iraqi Muslim Population.

[emptywheel]

americanforliberty

Matthew Yglesias made a good point about the claims that Syria must be behind the kidnapping because, well, whatever. Here's his analogy:

This is mighty fuzzy stuff and it's popping up all over the place. But I'm not seeing the evidence for it. The logic on display is roughly equivalent to the idea that George W. Bush ordered the bombing of Beirut's airport because the United States gives Israel a lot of money and can influence Israeli policy to some extent when we choose to do so (and, no doubt, there are people in Lebanon inferring this very thing as I type, but there's no actual reason to believe it's true).

But I think you're right, many will make that assumption about us, too.

[leis]

Isreal and the Mossad want to go back to the old days when they 'ran all the terrorists' out of Lebanon.

How much do we pay Isreal yearly and is the US Air Base there just for weddings?

[kim]

Mimikatz, I just watched John Dean talk about his new book on Oberman's show... it might explain a lot of what we're seeing - about the need of people to follow authorities in times of crisis, and about authoritarian leaders (his target is "Conservatives" but the book apparently reviews academic work since WWII).

CrooksandLiars has the very good video.

[ed]

For those wondering why we don't urge Isreal to use restraint, in the "restraint" match-up, I think Isreal is coming out ahead.

Hezbolla kidnaps Isreali soldiers, Isreal performs raids in Lebanon.

Iraq does not so much, we invaid their country and set up chaotic, hell shop for 4 years.

[vachon]

Look, we don't have enough troops to field a volleyball game. What, we're gonna drop 3000 bombs and then say sayonara?

[pol]

No, Vachon, we're not going to drop 3000 bombs. Cheney's going to have them drop one big bomb, slightly more powerful...

[kim]

True about the volleyball game, and funny. Just another example of how little thought went into the Iraq war (I have no problem with Afghanistan).

[apishapa]

I have believed for some time that Israel is determined to attack Iran. I believe that this is part of an effort by Israel to draw Iran into the conflict so they will have an excuse to invade Iran. And they will have Bush's blessing.I think they are in a hurry to get the war going before our elections.

Bush has said again and again that if Iran makes a move against Israel we will attack. He has never qualified that support for Israel by stating that they must exercise any kind of restraint. They are free to go batshit crazy and attack everyone in the region in order to bring about a war, and we will happily cheer them on.

I am sick over this. I do not understand what motivates these lunatics to believe they are entitled to destroy the entire world for their empire building experiment. Yes, I do believe Isreal wants to rule the entire Middle East.

I used to respect Israelis, but they are acting like terrorists. I think they have forgotten what was done to them, or maybe they think that justifies behaving like monsters themselves.

[4jkb4ia]

Israelis are behaving the way they are because of what is being "done to them" now. Remember that the Holocaust survivors are very elderly.

[americanforliberty]

Does anyone find it a little strange that Israel is at bombing two democratically elected governments. (Lebanon and Palestinan Authority.) While Israel and I are not fans of Hamas they were the choice of their people. And in Lebanon after the weakening of Syria's influence elected its own government. As I think Thomas Jefferson pointed out "A new government is a weak government"..maybe it is easier to get what you want through Chaos then to sit across a table and speak to each in other in a civil manner.

[QuickSilver]

Is it anti-Semitic to wish that Israel exercise restraint? Playing a powerful (or desperate) hand, Israel has invaded and blockaded a country over three kidnapped soldiers. The conflict now risks involvement not just of Hamas and Hezbollah, but Syria and Iran. The Los Angeles Times reports this morning that despite Bush Administration's claims, it is far from clear that Iran or Syria ordered the kidnapping nor has any control over the people who executed the raid.

So why has Israel invaded? And where is all this going? Writing in the Los Angeles Times, David Myers, a UCLA professor of Jewish history, predicts "an almost ritualized series of violent actions and reactions in order to protect their [respective] symbols, knowing full well that these deeds will only deepen hatred and mistrust." So all the hopes, dreams, aspirations, and fears of people in the region, Jews and Arabs alike -- swallowed up in a blueprint of consuming pride.

Why can't civilized human beings do better than this? Surely we must hate our own children to condemn them to live in such madness.

[tryggth]

There is a deep fear going on. That the messiah doesn't appear in Palestine.

[ed]

Does anyone find it a little strange that Israel is at bombing two democratically elected governments.

Not really. Not when two democratically elected governments harbor extremists. Democracy doesn't equal liberty.

[americanforliberty]

Ed: I guess the old saying "Becareful of what you wish for" comes into play here. But the truth is those two countries held deomcratic elections and elected their leaders by popular vote. And if you could just explain "Deomocracy doesn't equal liberty." because unless your a facist I think those two words don't go together.

And the bottom line is "Bush's Road Map to Peace" is a circle...bomb each other, make-up, bomb each other, make-up....

[Ronald Grosser]

Today's newspapers and the Bible speak about current events. Ezekiel 38:8,11,14 speaks of a time of security and safety for Israel, which has yet to happen since 1948. Therefore, some event must end the constant threat of terrorist extremists against Israel. That event may well be a war initiated by Iran-Syria-or their proxies against Israel. If this involves the destruction of Damascus as foretold in Isaiah 17 and Amos 1, then most likely a limited nuclear war is meant. The world (UN) will rage, but the funding and support for terrorists will be cut-off (Ezekiel 32:17-32)and the world will breathe a collective sigh of relief. War is horrible and never will solve mankind's problems, but wars will happen. This war will not be WW3, but its end will allow the rebuilding of the Third Jewish Temple and for the Muslim faith to no longer be held hostage by its own terrorist extremists. And israel will live in safety and security as spoken of in Ezekiel 38:8,11,14 and many other passages of Scripture. The next 15 months may well be when this war errupts and Shovuot of 2008 is a possible time when "kings to go to war" in the Middle East.