Aluminum Tubes and the House Gravy Train

by emptywheel

Earlier in the week, I argued that we need to be skeptical of Representative Hoekstra's seeming concern with oversight of the executive, since his recent history suggests he's more interested in staying in the know than he is in protecting the Constitution. Twice, I asked whether there was a connection between Hoekstra's false concern (and what I characterized as his threat to Bush) and DOJ's efforts to roll up the Babylon of corruption that is the House appropriations process. I noted:

Remember, underlying the Wilkes/Cunningham/Lewis/etc. scandal are the surveillance programs Wilkes [ed: should be Mitch Wade] himself won, which includes the CIFA program. We get shitty domestic surveillance no matter which of these factions win.

Well, today TPMMuck offers an example of why it is important (and why eRiposte should be regarded one of the best investigators on the web). BusinessWeek raises a question that eR and Laura Rozen have already contemplated. Was Mitchell Wade's company, MZM, the contractor that had the final say that declared the aluminum tubes to be only suitable for building a nuclear centrifuge?

The Contractor Responsible for the Aluminum Tubes Claim

First, let me explain some background. There was, we now know, a heated debate within the Intelligence Community about whether the aluminum tubes were intended for use as centrifuge parts or not. The CIA was sure they were. But DOE (who had the most expertise in this area) and INR were not so sure. Normally in such a case, the IC might seek the opinion of the JAEIC to resolve the conflict.

An alternative method to resolve this conflict would have been for the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) to ask for the judgement of the Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee (JAEIC) which is officially part of the NIE process. JAEIC has been a standing DCI technical intelligence committee for several decades. This august scientific group did not evaluate the tubes, according to a knowledgeable US official.

But that didn't happen. Instead, a contractor was brought in to assess the tubes. And the contractor not only reinforced the centrifuge explanation, but cast doubt on the (we now know) correct use of the tubes, to construct rockets.

Contributing to the CIA's analysis for the extensive September intelligence assessment was an analysis performed by an individual from DELETED who were working under contract with the CIA at the time to provide broad-based technical advice DELETED. The CIA WINPAC analyst, DELETED, requested in September 2002 that they perform an analysis of the tubes.                      SENTENCE DELETED                     

( )The contractors told Committee staff that the CIA provided them with a stack of intelligence data and analysis on the Iraqi aluminum tube procurements on September 16, 2002. All of the information was provided by the CIA and the contractors told Committee staff that they did not discuss the data with any agencies other than the CIA. They were provided with NGIC's analysis of the tubes, but said they were not briefed by nor did they ask to speak to NGIC or DOE analysts. One contractor said, "This was internal to the agency." One of the contractors said before joining DELETED he had been given a tutorial on 81-mm rockets by a DOE analyst, but said that the conversation was "pretty meaningless to me because the rest of the issue had not bubbled up at that point." A DOE analyst told Committee staff that he also discussed the issue with the contractor in May of 2001. The contractor produced a paper on September 17, 2002, one day after receiving the information, that said the team concluded, "that the tubes are consistent with design requirements of gas centrifuge rotors, but due to the high-strength material and excessively tight tolerances, the tubes seem inconsistent with design requirements of rocket motor casings." The report referenced NGIC's analysis that the material and quantity of the tubes were inconsistent with rocket motor applications. The report said that while the dimensions "possibly" were suitable for rockets, the tolerances were too stringent and the pressure test requirements were too high.

As eRiposte summarizes:

So, there was a contractor (a "red team" as the Robb-Silberman report called them), whose name the SSCI Report thought important to block out, who produced in exactly 1 day a detailed report that magically agreed with the CIA WINPAC analyst's (Joe's) fabrications conclusions on the aluminum tubes. This incident is one of the most interesting in the context of the tubes and the identity of the contractor is certainly of great interest to me.

You see, rather than going to the nonpartisan experts they would normally use, they went to this contracting firm associated with the NGIC. And that firm gave the warmongers precisely the report they wanted.

Was MZM the Contractor?

See, we know MZM had a contract with NGIC at the time (among others). We know that it was an NGIC contractor who gave this assessment. And we know that two MZM consultants worked for the Robb-Silberman commission that didn't name MZM directly. And we know, from BusinessWeek, that MZM was definitely involved in assessing Saddam's nuclear program:

Sensing an opportunity, McKeon hired a former CIA general counsel to quiz Pentagon and intelligence officials about the viability of MZM's business, which before the invasion of Iraq included helping with controversial analysis of Saddam Hussein's nuclear capabilities.

Finally, we know that the then-CEO of MZM is a corrupt Republican partisan deeply involved in a system of bribery.

We don't know for sure whether MZM was the contractor in question. But do you see how it'd be easier to get the assessment you want from a contractor like MZM, who is dependent on a synergistic system of bribery for its work?

Hoekstra's Threat

Which is the background I was trying to get at with my posts about the Hoekstra letter. Remember the chronology. Rumors involving Brent Wilkes and hookers and Porter Goss and Dusty Foggo, which had been floating for months, suddenly solidify. Goss gets fired, along with Foggo. And Hayden gets nominated, with the promise he'll bring Steven Kappes back as his Deputy.

At this point, two things had happened. 1) The investigation into Brent Wilkes heated up on hookergate, which seems to be the prime crime he committed for which the statute of limitations hasn't run out. And 2) with the nomination of Hayden and Kappes, Peter Hoekstra and the rest of the Republican Congress lost the direct window into the intelligence world that Porter Goss had accorded them. That is, the precipitating event is not just the switch of Hayden for Goss. It may also include increased pressure on the bribery schemers.

In response to this turn of events (at least the latter one), Hoekstra writes a letter threatening the Administration with legal problems if it doesn't clue Hoekstra's committee into its intelligence programs.

In the interim several weeks, a couple of things happen. Hoekstra apparently gets briefed into the programs he wanted to know about. And the prosecution of some of the Republican Congressmen tied to the larger SoCal bribery system--Doolittle, Lewis, and several others--picks up steam.

But Hoekstra remains disgruntled and someone leaks Hoekstra's letter and then Hoekstra shows up on Fox to talk sternly about oversight. This from a guy who had previously rubber-stamped anything the Bush Administration has put in front of him.

Again, I'm not sure that this letter ties back to the Wilkes scandal (nor am I sure that MZM was the contractor responsible for the aluminum tube assessment). It may be something more pathetic, like Hoekstra getting pissy that the Administration wouldn't let him propagate the disinformation he's got such a fondness for. But the chronology sure fits. And if MZM is the contractor in question, it establishes a clear line between the Wilkes corruption and the kind of disinformation Hoekstra is now peddling. It would establish a clear line between the disinformation that got us into the Iraq war with ongoing attempts to propagate disinformation in the name of Intelligence.

Update: One More Bonus Point about Hoekstra

And since I'm obsessing about Hoekstra, I'd like to make one more point. Here's the paragraph where Hoekstra threatens Bush:

Finally, Mr. President, but perhaps most importantly, I want to reemphasize that the Administration has the legal responsibility to "fully and currently" inform the House and Senate Intelligence Committees of its intelligence and intelligence-related activities. Although the law gives you and the committees flexibility on how we accomplish that (I have been fully supportive of your concerns in this respect), it is clear that we, the Congress, are to be provided all information about such activities. I have learned of some alleged Intelligence Community activities about which our committee has not been briefed. In the next few days I will be formally requesting information on these activities. If these allegations are true, they may represent a breach of responsibility by the Administration, a violation of law, and, just as importantly, a direct affront to me and the Members of this committee who have so ardently supported efforts to collect information on our enemies. [my emphasis]

As Tom Maguire pointed out (before he went haywire into Plame nonsense), Hoekstra says nothing about "domestic surveillance." In fact, Hoekstra only address surveillance at all when he addresses all the programs he has already rubber stamped. His threat invokes the domestic and international surveillance programs--Hoekstra gains standing to threaten the President by defining this as "an affront to me and the Members of this committee who have so ardently supported efforts to collect information on our enemies." He's basically saying, "don't piss off the people who have rubber stamped your illegal surveillance programs." But the programs he wants read into? No mention at all about surveillance.

Nor did he mention surveillance programs on his Sunday Fox appearance:

Hoekstra: …this is actually a case where the whistleblower process was working approriately. Some people within the intelligence community brought to my attention some programs that they believed we had not been briefed on–They were right–We have now been briefed on those programs, but I wanted to reinforce to the President and to the executive branch in the intelligence community how important and by law–the requirement thatthey keep the legislative branch informed of what they are doing.

(Click through to see the video at C&L.) He speaks only of "programs" and "one major — what I consider significant activity."

Now, I know, maybe it's just semantics. After all, what do spooks do if not surveil? But remember, many of the people involved in this charade (except Bush, who only got to watch his Poppy's involvement), from Death Squads Negroponte, to Cheney, to Ledeen, to Wilkes and his Honduran hookers (yup, he had them everywhere), come from an era in which "intelligence programs" and "intelligence activities" may well refer to a range of activities, up to and including overthrowing sovereign governments.

I'm just saying ... as we're trying to guess what these guys are up to (both parties, here), let's not get blinded to what the possibilities might include.

[Also updated: included the quote from BusinessWeek and a few more tweaks.]

Update: Laura weighs in:

Guess what is the source of the documents recently promoted by Congressmen Hoekstra, Weldon and Senator Santorum, on the 500 buried, 20 year old chemical munitions in Iraq? The Army National Ground Intelligence Center (the NGIC), where Mitchell Wade's MZM got its start, by, as Walter Pincus has reported, hiring relatives of top NGIC officials, and then the NGIC officials themselves.

One more point I'll make on this. Paul Kiel casts doubt on whether Dave Gaubatz, the former Air Force investigator who first tipped off Hoekstra to the outdated munitions, could be the whistleblower who came forward with this program.

While he wouldn't specifically deny that Gaubatz is the whistle-blower in question, he did say that "the chairman's source is not someone who has been publicly identified or someone who would be out trying to claim that they were his source." Ware refused to characterize the program in question in any way.

That would seem to rule Gaubatz out, although it is worth keeping in mind that Hoekstra referred to a number of whistle-blowers coming forward with information.

I'll just recall another of Laura's scoops:

Heard something really interesting from a Republican Hill staffer. That it was Mrs. Ledeen, a staffer to Sen. Santorum, who got the tip from a non governmental source that led to the Hoekstra/Santorum press conference last week about the WMD in Iraq. Hmm. Who was the source?

Did Gaubatz come in through Barbara Ledeen? Or did someone else come in through her?

Update: William Arkin's response to Hoeksta's letter--though more appropriate to append to my earlier posts--is definitely worth reading.

I further suspect that because we are focused on "illegal" activity, because so many are blinded by their hatred of the Bush administration, because Congress is so lame in its oversight, a slow and legal erosion of privacy and civil liberties is occurring.  A mechanism to implement the worst nightmares is being created by a voracious intelligence community and its contractor posse, and we are not focused on this far more worrisome trend, a trend that continues with bipartisan support.

 

I've argued here before that there are undoubtedly more NSA programs to come and that telephone records were just the tip of the iceberg. I'm now researching more than a dozen NSA programs related to domestic surveillance and database-gathering. But I've also pointed to the failure of Congress, and particularly of Republican boosters such as Hoekstra, to oversee intelligence programs, which has contributed to unchecked executive power based upon fallacious assumptions about what is necessary to fight terrorism.

We can't be briefed on every little thing they are doing.  The good congressman has now been taken to the Star Chamber and told new secrets and he is now assuaged, a naive and desperate lover reassured that it will never happen again.  In his desperation to be loved and included, Hoekstra is an embarrassment to his office and to his sacred duty.

Comments

[vachon]

The charges against SISMI the past few days have made me look at the Niger forgery reporting again. This getting very creepy. I half expect Roberto Calvi's murder to figure into it.

[p.lukasiak]

oh crap.

This is one of those stories that is WAY too complicated and diverse to follow...

what we need is a prosecutor with supoena power to sort things out.

[tryggth]

Heh. Thanks EW. After buffing my tin-foiled hat a bit: Does intelligence-related = counter-espionage?

[emptywheel]

tryggth

Could be anything, couldn't it? We know MZM had a contract for CIFA, a domestic surveillance program. We know they had a contract for inventing intelligence. And we know Wilkes sowed his oats in Iran Contra. Pick your poison, I guess.

vachon

Though payola press is about the only thing these guys haven't been accused of yet. Though I have a feeling that Hoekstra is a fan of Ledeen's work, which would put him closer to SISMI than to Wilkes.

[tryggth]

I'm thinking of a counter-espionage effort where the targets are contractors, some CIA people and some congress-critters (among others).

[emptywheel]

Oh, that kind of counter-espionage. Maybe. But if you've got DOJ after them, why bother with counter-espionage? They're already watching them legally...

[tryggth]

True. And the DoJ has been pretty damn effective finding and picking at these scabs (he says, removing his tin-foil hat).

[jwest]

Lawrence Wilkerson, who was Colin Powell’s chief of staff, revealed that the cost Iraq agreed to pay for aluminum tubes made to the final specification was $75 each.

This revelation was made to the Democratic Senate Intelligence Committee hearings aired on C-Span this past week. The cost had been redacted in the SSCI report and mistakenly assumed to be the $15 each mentioned for the purchase of tubes to the more open tolerances. Eriposte could not grasp this fact, and insisted endlessly that the tighter toleranced tubes were “within a few dollars” of the original purchase.

A $75 tube price makes it absurd to believe the tubes were meant for anything other than a nuclear program.

Wilkerson also tried to explain to the group of sorely uniformed Senators that the various test results on the tubes were due to the fact that different agencies were testing different progressions of tubes procured at different times in the evolution of the tube’s changing tolerances.

I’m sure, EW, with your skills at research you can obtain the transcript of the hearing and glean even more information on this subject.

[kim]

Novak to reveal 2 of 3 sources (Harlow, Rove, and X) after Fitz says investigation of his role is over. I'm not clear if Bob will do this tonight (according to Drudge) or tomorrow (according to Hardball).

[jwest]

Novak will give his first interview on Brit Hume (FOX) tomorrow at 6:00, plus appear on Hannity later. He stated tonight that he got the name "Plame" from Wilson's bio on the internet.

[KM]

Wow, jwest. No matter how many times you're beaten down, you just don't give up, do you?

[Kagro X]

Now that you mention Negroponte and Honduran hookers, I'm reminded of the very curious story of the four signing statements reported by Charles Savage which purported to nullify a Congressional prohibition on combat operations in Colombia:

On at least four occasions while Bush has been president, Congress has passed laws forbidding US troops from engaging in combat in Colombia, where the US military is advising the government in its struggle against narcotics-funded Marxist rebels. After signing each bill, Bush declared in his signing statement that he did not have to obey any of the Colombia restrictions because he is commander in chief.

I have no reason to believe that the "activities" Hoekstra's talking about have anything to do with this. But for one thing, we're way past through the looking glass. And hell, you brought it up...

[jwest]

KM,

Try to put the BDS aside for a moment and think……

You believe the tubes were meant for 81mm rocket motors. Let’s explore what that entails.

1. The artillery rounds that Iraq claimed to be copying were air-to-ground style munitions. Aluminum is used instead of steel for the weight savings; otherwise a steel casing for ground launched systems would work fine. At the time of Saddam’s purchases, no helicopters or other air assets were available to Iraq or were they expected to be in any future conflict.

2. Rockets of this type were manufactured in 6 countries by companies in competition with each other. Because these are standardized munitions, Saddam could purchase the motors from one source and the ordinance from another, if he wanted to. These rockets have been manufactured for decades and the companies building them have invested millions in machines, tooling and processes to make them as cost competitive as possible. Because they are conventional weapons, there were no restrictions on Iraq purchasing as many as they wanted.

3. Saddam desperately wanted sanctions lifted. Any violation of purchasing banned material would hurt the effort to have the U.N. remove the sanctions.

4. As stated in the previous post, Wilkerson stated that the final cost was $75 per tube as opposed to the $15 per tube for the earlier models.

So, in order for you to believe these tubes were meant for rocket motors you would have to believe:

1. Saddam thought it was a good idea to use air-to-ground rockets in land based MRLS systems instead of munitions designed specifically for that purpose.

2. Saddam thought it was a good idea to manufacture his own rockets, even though they were easily and cheaply available from multiple sources.

3. Saddam thought it was a good idea to risk violating the sanctions to buy components for a minor field artillery system, when he could have purchased as many finished munitions as he wanted legally.

4. Saddam thought it was a good idea to pay 6 times more for motor casings than other manufacturers.

Does this really make sense to you?

[KM]

BDS ... British Dragonfly Society? Bund Demokratischer Sozialisten? Broadcast Data Systems? Oh, I get it, you must mean "Bush Derangement Syndrome", some typically empty unwitticism apparently devised by the serial liar and know-nothing Charles Krauthammer, a term completely unknown outside the sweaty confines of right-wing circle-jerks.

Dilemma: to divert this thread and my valuable time in order to once again shred this guy's feverish ravings, or to let him walk away imagining that it hasn't in fact been decisively and irrefutably demonstrated that the "centrifuge case" for the aluminum tubes was a laughably ludicrous and patently dishonest pile of steaming horse manure?

My apologies to EW for wasting her bandwidth.

[jwest]

KM,

You may have had a case prior to Wilkerson’s testimony (under oath), but now you are just clinging to theory proven false.

Try to accept reality.

[KM]

Get real.

Theory proven false. Uh-huh. You tell me what my "theory" is and how it's "proven" false.

Wilkerson goes and tosses off some cheap rhetorical line -- "When you talk about the difference between $75 for a little piece of metal and $15" -- and suddenly you're running around claiming that it's been "revealed that the cost Iraq agreed to pay for aluminum tubes made to the final specification was $75 each". Right. No out-of-your-butt inferences there.

"Under oath", no less. Wonder what charges the senators could bring if it was discovered that, in fact, there is no evidence whatever of an actual Iraqi procurement agreement for $75 per tube. Perjury -- for what false assertion, exactly? Oh, that's right -- there is no assertion made in that cheap toss-off line. Heck, I don't even know what he's saying there. But I know what he's trying to do, rhetorically, cuz by now I know every cheap rhetorical trick in the Admin playbook.

If you want to discuss the thousands of devastating reasons why it is absolutely ludicrous -- I repeat, absolutely ludicrous -- to continue to seriously entertain the idea that the tubes were meant for centrifuges, I will happily oblige you.

FYI, the top tubes price is redacted on p. 96 of the SSCI report. It isn't on p. 105. Though I suspect you know that full well, and are simply trying to deceive your audience.

[jwest]

KM,

You lost. As a democrat, this should be second nature to you now.

Your obsessed friend, eriposte, spent hundreds of hours trying to make the case for rocket motors and now Wilkerson has provided the key the puzzle. If you didn’t catch the context, he was testifying about the night before Powell presented the evidence at the U.N., how all the intelligence agency were present and every detail was being evaluated.

I tried to explain to you and eriposte months ago that tubes could not be built to final tolerances for $15, but your ideology trumped your common sense. Now it seems you want to continue believing in impossibly cheap tubes instead of admitting your error.

Why am I not surprised? You and EW are probably still waiting the “24 business hours” for Rove to be indicted.

If you and your liberal brethren continue to deny facts, you will continue on this perpetual loosing streak.