Yet More Polling On Iraq

by DemFromCT

The invaluable Mystery Pollster/Prof Franklin combo post on a roundup of polling here, reviewing the 'hardening' of opinion:

Thus my conclusion yesterday that as the debate on timelines and other proposals for withdrawal has intensified, real underlying attitudes have been hardening and are less susceptible to the variation in opinion poll question wording and context.

As I noted in a comment there, adding in (not for analysis purposes by MP, but for 'big picture' context), Gallup has an analysis today by Frank Newport of Congressional preference, entitled Americans Want Congressional Involvement in Iraq Decisions but no clear mandate in terms of a timetable for troop withdrawal.

Underlying these results is the rather obvious fact that almost everyone -- including both proponents and opponents of the war in Iraq -- agrees that troops should eventually be withdrawn from Iraq. The two issues involved are thus: 1) When should troops be withdrawn, and 2) who should decide the timetable for withdrawal?

In terms of the latter question, the new Gallup poll shows that a majority appears to favor Congress getting involved rather than leaving the issue totally up to the administration.

If Americans are divided (and clear in their minds that there is no consensus), it is interesting that they turn to Congress for guidance, and not the WH, and in doing so, appear to want Dems to be elected:

Voters Seem Ready for a Change of Scenery in Congress
Many Indicators Point to Democratic Strength in Midterms

Whatever the polls seem to indicate on the narrower Iraq question, I'm not so sure the "stay the course" people are all that happy with that choice. Are there any 'intensity' questions like the 'strongly approve', 'strongly disapprove' the WaPo uses in their presidential approval poll? I haven't come across that. Prof. Franklin's graph is here:

Comments

[Mimikatz]

Two developments: Several Sunni groups offer to halt all attacks if the US withdraws within 2 years and the Supreme Court smacks Bush down in the Hamdan case.

Best analysis of the court decision is here.

Ball is in Bush's court, but it is pretty clear what the spectators want, and I don't think it is an abrogation of the Geneva Convention.

[ab initio]

I would take all these polls showing Dem preference with a grain of salt. Let's remember that the Repubs and Rove have a good track record at winning elections even if they FUBAR everything else. The Dems on the other hand have poor track record in capitalizing on voter sentiment and don't seem to have the "killer instinct" to knock out their opponents.

Nov is a long ways away and when the minority of registered voters do actually cast ballots the results could be quite different. I hope the Dems contest this election as if this will be last!

[Paul Lyon]

I hope the Dems contest this election as if this will be last!

Is it paranoid to fear that it might be? :-)