The Iraq Civil War: When Do We Leave?

by DemFromCT

Gen. Casey wants to start troop withdrawals. So would Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, although "the positive reception of Maliki's reconciliation plan was somewhat undercut by deadly violence across the country." And as polls continue to demonstate, "the [ABC/WaPo] poll found that 47 percent now favor some kind of deadline, up eight percentage points since December."

If you pay attention at all to Bush's approval rating (38%, up from 33%), note that it's still consistently below 40%, the number that matters. That's the number below which Bush is a drag on the elections. And as the inevitable Iraqi violence erodes the "good week" the Republicans tell themselves that they had, Bush will slip right back to the mid 30s. The 'boost', such as it is, is in weak Republican support, who vaccilate between Bush rejection and fear of change.

Americans think the war was a mistake. They'd like to get out, but view chaos as a non-desirable outcome. The idea that "stay the course" will turn out to be in the end a successful political strategy is a highly questionable proposition, not supported by the polls (Bush typically gets no more than 35% approval on his war handling). And observations that Americans don't support immediate withdrawal are somewhat misleading because Democratic proposals do not suggest immediate withdrawal.

The election is in November. Republicans have bet the farm that Iraq will be better by then. We'll watch with interest, but they have an uphill battle in the convincing department. And there are few, if any, turning points left, even for the "six monthers" (the next six months in Iraq are crucial...).

In the meantime, Democrats are clear that they represent change, even if the change is not unanimously agreed on. There's no question they have the stronger position, simply because reality has a habit of catching up with Republican spin. The current spin is that the WH is eager to take on the leftward Dem tilt represented by last week's debate. Fine. Let's get it on, fellas. Let's see where the country is in November. And let's see how happy the WH is about their dismal polling numbers by then.

Comments

[Sally]

On ABC News tonight, George Stephanopoulos said progress is being made in Iraq. Someone may have phoned him from the Green Zone, or the White House, with the happy news. What a twit he is.

[Semanticleo]

Only a fool grabs a tiger by the tail. The only strategy left is to keep a grip, but at least the fool didn't think of that before
he began his errant errand.

[njr]

I'm uncomfortable hearing Bush must keep a grip on this tiger.
I'm uncomfortable thinking Dems should stay the course until elections while Repubs stay the course in Iraq.
The polls I read prior to the 2004 election said the Iraq muddle would put Dems into office... and the Repubs thwarted that prediction.

I'm thinking the Dems must not continue the old routine thinking the outcome will be different next time... isn't that the definition of... insanity?

[DemFromCT]

njr, I don't understand. Where are Dems staying the course? The majority voted for change.

[ab initio]

This administration has no intention of leaving Iraq. For them it's about a permanent presence. Bush has already stated that the decisions will be for the next President. By the time the next President comes the inertia for change to leave will be very difficult and complex.

They will have a token withdrawal timed for the Nov elections and all the corresponding fanfare of victory and attacks on the Dems for their surrender to terrorists.

[Meteor Blades]

As the Times noted yesterday regarding al-Maliki's reconciliation proposal:

The text was, however, a watered down version of the document shown to The Times on Thursday. Iraq's presidency council and representatives from the Shia ruling coalition cut the document from 28 to 24 articles on Saturday night, said Faisal Abdullah, a spokesman for Khalid al-Attiyah, the Shia deputy speaker.

Noticeably missing from the final draft was a call for the Government to recognise the difference between resistance and terrorist groups and a written invitation for resistance groups to join a national dialogue.

The new wording reads only: "To adopt a credible national dialogue in dealing with all the different views and political positions that are opposing the views and positions of the Government and the political powers ..."

The published plan also removed a demand for the Government to agree upon a timeline for the withdrawal of foreign forces based on the readiness of Iraqi troops.

It dropped a pledge to revisit the constitution and cut a clause on reinstating employees who had jobs in ministries that had been dissolved under the US-occupation.

As I noted yesterday:

Without a timetable, the reconciliation plan's resemblance to the Kerry-Feingold-Boxer-Leahy Amendment is a bit off-kilter. And exactly what is a reconciliation plan without reconciliation?

The final form of the al-Maliki proposal as approved by the Iraqi parliament is just a sugar-coated placebo, all flavor and no medicine. Whether General Casey's desire to withdraw some troops is just an election-year ploy or the real mccoy is hard to evaluate given the secrecy in which his briefings were held. I'm lean toward the former.

[Rick B]

Anyone besides ne think that the reason for Bush's surprise visit to Iraq last week was intended to ask Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to request that the U.S, start to pulll troops out of Iraq?

[janinsanfran]

Hmmm -- what none of this deals with is the situation on the ground. Wake up, Washington -- you are not in control in Bagdhad, though you have a lot of hostages there.

I'm just back from the region -- smart people in Amman like Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group think there is a 50-50 chance the whole thing blows sky high and destablizes the whole region (when you create intramural carnage, you make refugees -- duhh.) More here.

Neither GWB and the GOP imperialists, nor our timid Dems, control what happens in Iraq. Now there is an unthinkable notion for Americans.

[Redshift]

One quibble -- I would say the Republicans have bet the farm they can make voters think Iraq is better by then, rather than that it actually will be; they're all about perception and PR, not reality. I still agree it's unlikely, but it's a little less unlikely than the real thing.

[DemFromCT]

How unlikely?

A majority of Americans say Congress should pass a resolution that outlines a plan for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday. Half of those surveyed would like all U.S. forces out within 12 months.

The poll finds support for the ideas behind Democratic proposals that were soundly defeated in the Senate last week. An uptick in optimism toward the war after the killing of terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi earlier this month seems to have evaporated.