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June 23, 2006


Kudos to greg mitchell of Editor and Publisher.

Polls, Pundits and Pols You'd never know it from some of the reporting and bloviating on the debate over an Iraq withdrawal, but all major polls show that the public favors withdrawals, with strong support for a timeline or total pullout within a year.

By Greg Mitchell

(June 22, 2006) -- The new efforts by Republicans in Congress, and in the media, to use Iraq to their advantage by branding Democrats as favoring a "cut-and-run'" policy, has received wide coverage in the past week. Often pundits, and even reporters, have suggested that this is working, because Americans are not in favor of a "hasty" withdrawal. Democrats are in shambles, they report, as they fear that proposals for setting a timetable for withdrawal put forward by Sen. John Kerry and Rep. John Murtha will prove disastrous for the party in the November elections, due to the alleged unpopularity of this stance.

This conclusion, however, flies in the face of surveys by all major polling firms, as E&P has chronicled over the past two years.

Mitchell does pretty good work.

Maybe not as good as one CT blogger I know, but he's catching on.

This is really a no-win issue for the GOP, because they are caught between their business (especially small business) base who love cheap labor and the nativists. They really can't put much of a crimp in the current low-wage business model, but many people are upset about the culture changing. And of course there are the demographics of future elections.

The Dems have less of a problem, but they too are caught, between workers who are undercut by illegal immigrants (who are exploited by business) and liberals who benefit from the large supply of service workers and are generally more cosmopolitan and tolerant.

The issue really isn't simple, nor are the solutions. But it is the GOP to whom people are looking for solutions and they can't deliver. At least the Dems look reasonable for trying to compromise. MMy guess is that whatever benefit there is from demagoguing the issue will backfire in 2 years. (See Wilson, Pete.)

from National Journal this week:

06-24-2006 National Journal Insiders Poll

Richard E. Cohen and Peter Bell (Email this author)
© National Journal Group, Inc.

Q: What impact will Iraq have on the midterm election?
Republicans (45 votes)

Help Republicans 44 percent
Help Democrats 22 percent
Little impact 29 percent
Hurt incumbents, or too soon
to tell (volunteered) 4 percent

Q: What impact will Iraq have on the midterm election?

Democrats (39 votes)

Help Republicans 0 percent
Help Democrats 95 percent
Little impact 5 percent

Clearly Republican IQs on the Hill are a good 20 points lower than previously thought, even accounting for Allen and Kyl.

Mimikatz, the difference is also that R constituencies in certain areas of the country want and expect action. It's not nearly the issue in CT it is in AZ.

I always considered this a lose-lose proposition by the Republicans. As a Democrat, I was simply enjoying yet another factional split in their party. I mocked them.

But...three things strike me as at odds...

1. Republicans are the only ones who can change directions (for now).

2. The US public is unhappy with the direction things are headed, and hence WANT change.

3. The Republicans are split and can't deliver on the change that the public wants.

It is like they shot off their mouths and got everybody freaked out demanding action, then um...hmm... well, are not going to actually DO anything. Geez, it's like they are trying to look bad and piss people off.

Dont underestimate the effectiveness of Republican attack on immigration locally. We may not be listening to the one they are hearing. Because I am surprise how my intelligent Republican relatives buy the stinker that Democrats are for bringing more illegal aliens and amnesty for them and Republicans are not. In a low voting elections this makes a big impact--as evidence on CA-50.

I suggest our local Dems fight this issue. Republicans are talking about listening tours. Dems should do the same thing with the purpose to of educating. There should be a thinktank to provide tools(talking points) to fight the issue locally--not in terms of talking to Democrats--but in the language of the Republicans and southerners.



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