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June 13, 2006


when you're right you're right
I expect up to 39% or so, then a drop with subsequent violence. -- DemFromCT

Between Zarqawi news and Rove news, this administration is having one of its better weeks since last summer. While the legal ramifications of the Rove news are played out up-page, anyone care to speculate on its political fall-out? Any added Bush bump, DemFromCT?

and if I give you a nickel, can you guess my weight?

I don't think this will have much political polling effect. Rove's fate is an insider's game.

The bigger factors for Bush will be iraq violence, immigration issues via his base and Abramoff scandal fallout. that's because what small volatility there is, is in the R voters.

Ask yourself what the headlines do to the soft R voter, the R-leaning indie, the disaffected fiscal conservative. That'll tell you what happens to Bush's numbers. But much of this is already hardening. That's why Bush will not likely see the upside of 40% except in an outlier poll (and we will see at least one).

I think, as discussed in the Rove thread, there's alot of wait-and-see involved -- it could well be this is not exoneration of Rove, but cooperation from him and a move up the chain.

However...in the terms of this thread, it barely matters, because the Plame affair isn't central to the numbers problem for Bush. If it blows up into something, it's lagniappe for our side; its fizzling out has no benefit for them.

Gallup once again gives Bush as close to good news as he's going to get from anything, and still it's not much. Better, however, than CBS, which showed a 2-point drop in approval to a lethal 33%.

And, to return to my favorite hobby-horse, what about the-economy-stupid? The sell-offs here and abroad have business pages openly discussing economic slowdown. Add that to everything else going wrong, and you have an administration in an irreversible downward spiral -- whatever they're trying to tell you on the cable news shows.

Question: Why is Rasmussen poll always so much higher than anyone else's? Today he has Bush at 42.

re 2 good posts:

Mystery Pollster on Gallup and CBS.

and Mystery Pollster (for pilgrim) on Rasmussen.

Thank you very much, DemFromCT for the response/redirect. Helpful. Something I've wondered a lot about.

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