More Gallup on Iraq and the Midterms

by DemFromCT

After Zarqawi was killed we discussed what kind of bump Bush would get. and the day after we discussed why that was a relevant curiosity. The bottom line is that Bush remains President, and his standing is tied to the war. That's both true from the perspective of Bush being responsible for the invasion of iraq and from the perspective of pushing the country to be realistic about what's happening there and what will heppen there in the near future. An unpopular President is more likely to reassess and compromise, even this one (who sets new standards for stubbornness, born out of weakness).

A new USA Today/Gallup Poll, conducted in the days following U.S. air strikes that resulted in the death of Iraqi terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, shows Americans have slightly more positive views of the Iraq war and George W. Bush's performance in office than prior to last week. Bush's approval rating, now at 38%, had shown some positive movement even before al-Zarqawi's death and is now his best since February 2006. And Americans are slightly less inclined to say the U.S. made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, though a majority still does. The majority of Americans believe al-Zarqawi's death was a major achievement for the United States, but only 1 in 5 expects there will now be fewer insurgent attacks in Iraq as a result.

The June 9-11, 2006 poll finds a slight majority of Americans, 53%, saying that al-Zarqawi's death was a major achievement for the United States. Thirty-six percent say it was a minor achievement, and 9% said it was not an achievement at all.

Even though most Americans believe al-Zarqawi's death was important, they accorded more significance to the capture of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and the killing of his two sons. Eighty-two percent described the U.S. capture of Saddam Hussein as a major achievement in December 2003, and 63% gave the same rating to the deaths of Uday and Qusay Hussein in July 2003...

It was expected by some observers that Bush's job approval rating would increase in response to the death of Iraqi insurgent leader al-Zarqawi. The 38% weekend reading, while up slightly, is not a significant surge. In fact, even before this latest news, the president's ratings had been on the rise. Bush reached the low point of his administration with a 31% job approval rating in Gallup's May 5-7, 2006 poll, but had seen his ratings improve to 33% in mid-May and 36% in early June. Bush's ratings were still higher, in the low 40% range, at the beginning of the year.

In fact, this President will not see the high end of 40%. That's the value that counts – below that, he's an albatross at the midterms. And the extremely modest bump likely represents disaffected Republicans who represent the triumph of hope over experience. Indies and Dems are gone, and will not return. This polarizing President, who seems incapable of true bipartisanship, will ride the Tony Snow-Josh Bolton strategery of hiding the WH teeth and claws for that 7% gain in popularity for a few weeks longer.

It won't last. The 'let Bush be Bush' crowd will be back beating him up on immigration, the impossible-to-satisfy social conservatives will still fight with the fiscal conservatives over failed policy,  and the situation in Iraq is every bit as bad as the critics say.

Bush and his minions were wrong about making their own reality. That only works for Republicans, and they're barely a third of the country. And while they remain good at elections, they still don't know how to govern. Lucky us.

addendum: the midterms:

Continuing a several month trend, the Democratic Party holds a strong lead over the Republicans in Gallup's latest generic ballot measure of the midterm congressional elections. According to the June 1-4, 2006 Gallup Poll, Democratic candidates are favored for this fall's U.S. House of Representatives election by 51% of all registered voters nationwide, while Republican candidates are favored by 42% of voters. The current nine-point Democratic lead on the generic ballot is slightly lower than the average 14-point lead held by Democrats in the four previous Gallup measures conducted between February and April. However, it is still among the widest advantages the Democratic Party has enjoyed on this important indicator of congressional electoral strength since the Republican Party came to majority power in Congress in 1994.

Comments

[emptypockets]

when you're right you're right
I expect up to 39% or so, then a drop with subsequent violence. -- DemFromCT

Between Zarqawi news and Rove news, this administration is having one of its better weeks since last summer. While the legal ramifications of the Rove news are played out up-page, anyone care to speculate on its political fall-out? Any added Bush bump, DemFromCT?

and if I give you a nickel, can you guess my weight?

[DemFromCT]

I don't think this will have much political polling effect. Rove's fate is an insider's game.

The bigger factors for Bush will be iraq violence, immigration issues via his base and Abramoff scandal fallout. that's because what small volatility there is, is in the R voters.

Ask yourself what the headlines do to the soft R voter, the R-leaning indie, the disaffected fiscal conservative. That'll tell you what happens to Bush's numbers. But much of this is already hardening. That's why Bush will not likely see the upside of 40% except in an outlier poll (and we will see at least one).

[demtom]

I think, as discussed in the Rove thread, there's alot of wait-and-see involved -- it could well be this is not exoneration of Rove, but cooperation from him and a move up the chain.

However...in the terms of this thread, it barely matters, because the Plame affair isn't central to the numbers problem for Bush. If it blows up into something, it's lagniappe for our side; its fizzling out has no benefit for them.

Gallup once again gives Bush as close to good news as he's going to get from anything, and still it's not much. Better, however, than CBS, which showed a 2-point drop in approval to a lethal 33%.

And, to return to my favorite hobby-horse, what about the-economy-stupid? The sell-offs here and abroad have business pages openly discussing economic slowdown. Add that to everything else going wrong, and you have an administration in an irreversible downward spiral -- whatever they're trying to tell you on the cable news shows.

[Pilgrim]

Question: Why is Rasmussen poll always so much higher than anyone else's? Today he has Bush at 42.

[DemFromCT]

re 2 good posts:

Mystery Pollster on Gallup and CBS.

and Mystery Pollster (for pilgrim) on Rasmussen.

[Pilgrim]

Thank you very much, DemFromCT for the response/redirect. Helpful. Something I've wondered a lot about.