Flu Stories: WHO Acknowledges H2H2H

One of the odd things about being on the cutting edge is that when you hear of confirmation of something you've known for weeks, it seems anti-climactic. But, since there have been doubters, best to post the news as it stands.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has detailed the first evidence that a person likely caught the bird-flu virus from a human and passed a slightly mutated version to another person. But experts said Friday the genetic change does not increase the threat of a pandemic. The investigation said the mutation of the H5N1 strain of the virus occurred in a 10-year-old Indonesian boy on Sumatra island who was part of the largest cluster ever reported. The initial human case is thought to have been infected by poultry. She then likely passed it to the boy and four blood relatives. The boy is then thought to have infected his father, whose samples showed the same mutation, according to the report obtained by The Associated Press. Only one infected family member survived.

This is not the first H2H case, it's the first H2H2H cluster iopenly acknowledged by WHO. There may have been others in Turkey and Azerbaijan, and some of them almost certainly were H2H (WHO also acknowledges that Indonesia cluster is not the only H2H case known). And if one looks at the chart of ongoing human cases, it's obvious to even casual inspection that the problem is far from over.

One of the interesting things about this virus is how it escapes easy categorization. Mny of the experts are rewriting their lectures about what's known about flu, and what's not. Much goes in the "we don't know" category, including what it takes to start a pandemic, and how the flu virus 'usually' changes. This is important because we'd love to have better risk assessment of the possibilty that this H5N1 virus may actually someday bacome a pandemic virus (which it's not now). Dr. Anna Likos from CDC presented information this week and summarized the issues with H5N1 and Pandemic flu:

Requirements for Pandemic Flu:

A new influenza A subtype can infect humans

AND

Causes serious illness

AND

Spreads easily from human-to-human

The first two prerequisites have been met, but not the last. Each new human infection is an opportunity for the virus to change.

Indonesia is continuing to not manage this viral outbreak. The virus itself, despite all efforts, remains a worldwide threat. And that is why we continue to pay attention. 

Comments

[Meteor Blades]

I like associating with people on the cutting edge, DemFromCT. Thanks for keeping us up-to-date.

[emptywheel]

Yup, anti-climatic. I read an article on this yesterday afternoon and say Oh No! I need to tell Dem. But then I said, oh wait, this is old news.

[recentdemocrat]

Great series. DemFromCt's attention to the ramifications of this unfolding story has caused me to begin some preliminary preparations. Things like having some extra food stored away and having a little bit of extra cash should the ATM network not be operational. Of course, living in SoCal near the San Andreas fault in a remote area, these are steps I should have been taking all along. Thank you DemFromCt.

[DemFromCT]

these are steps I should have been taking all along

in CT, it's blizzards, ice storms and nor'easters. everyone loses power every once in a while. it's an all-hazards approach! ;-)

[viget]

Heh, in STL it's the fear of a "big one" from the New Madrid fault, which is supposedly "overdue." So when my friends come over and give me a hard time about my "bird flu stockup" pile, I also remind them of that fact. I wish I had a basement to hide it all in, but condo living doesn't afford me that luxury. So it's kind of out there in the open.

If nothing else, it's a great conversation piece, and allows me to use a little self-depricating humor. And my wife also goes along with the stockup idea, and she's no blogosphere nutter like myself, so that's saying something.