by DemFromCT
The war isn't over, but this is a rare piece of good news. The questions raised are as numerous as there are Iraqis in terms of what next. What happens if little changes? The bogeyman is gone, and what's the explanation for subsequent violence?
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's older brother said the Jordanian-born terrorist mastermind has become a martyr and that the family had long expected his death.
"We anticipated that he would be killed for a very long time," Sayel al-Khalayleh told The Associated Press in a telephone interview from Zarqa, the poor industrial hometown of al-Zarqawi from which he derived his name.
Use this as an open thread. It will be an interesting debate, as the President's poll numbers temporarily spike, then drop.
Well, when your most militant state sponsor is Shia.
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Posted by: kim | June 08, 2006 at 08:41
as the President's poll numbers temporarily spike
how much, do you think? I don't see him getting much from this unless they can build a movie-of-the-week story out of it a la Jessica Lynch.
I think they need that personalized "hero" story because the news itself is not easy to sell of itself, since they used up all their victory declarations ("got them on the run", "last throes") and those ought to sound hollow now. And if they don't sound hollow already, the bombings that are sure to follow will make them hollow.
If Bush were to sound the right note -- that this is a step forward but that we still have a long fight ahead -- and actually can play leader instead of cowboy or cheerleader, I could imagine a 5-10 point spike. But that would take a new Bush. I don't imagine much more than a couple point change here, do you? Not back to high-30s even.
Posted by: emptypockets | June 08, 2006 at 08:48
Casey Sheehan would be a good candidate for hero. He died helping to convince Sadr's shockers that there was something besides Shia Islam worth dying for.
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Posted by: kim | June 08, 2006 at 08:54
Bush bumps are disaffected republicans. There's always some bump. It depends on events on the ground as to how much... I expect up to 39% or so, then a drop with subsequent violence.
Posted by: DemFromCT | June 08, 2006 at 08:55
The violence is shifting eastwards into Persia. Hoi polloi are out in the streets there; civil order maintained only by government goons.
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Posted by: kim | June 08, 2006 at 08:58
kim, it's not shifting it's growing. That's bad news.
Posted by: DemFromCT | June 08, 2006 at 09:03
The signal in the noise is obscured by the huge volume from the black hole of Africa, but careful calibration and attention to metering detects the eastward deflection of the violentometer. Also noted is that the occidental violence was deliberate disruption of civil behaviour and the oriental, government repression of spontaneous and civil dissent.
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Posted by: kim | June 08, 2006 at 10:09
Sistani is evidence of Allah's Mercy. His forgiving us for our paralyzed complicity in the holocaust on the Shia after Gulf One is an awesome miracle. Can anyone answer my question of the last year or so: Is the young Sadr maturing into his father's shoes?
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Posted by: kim | June 08, 2006 at 10:19
er, maybe, Powellized Complicity.
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Posted by: kim | June 08, 2006 at 10:21
kim, he's becoming more sophisticated, surely, but I cannot answer whether he's maturing.
Posted by: DemFromCT | June 08, 2006 at 10:50
The administration exaggerated his influece as part of a propaganda campaign. Of course, the last we heard, he was a screw-up who couldn't shoot straight, so why is killing him such a big deal?
Posted by: croatoan | June 08, 2006 at 10:52
Game, set, match. Let freedom reign! Ding dong the wicked witch is dead. Surely Rummy will announce today "Mission accomplished" and the complete withdrawl of our soldiers will start immediately. Well....
The upcoming spin will be interesting. Stay tuned.
Posted by: Undeniable Liberal | June 08, 2006 at 11:12
I wouldn't count on a big Bush bump. Maybe a little one. Perhaps some people feel sorry for him, and will welcome an excuse to approve of something. But other moments in the past (capturing Saddam) were more easily spun into potential 'turning points' - I think most people are beyond turning points, now. Catching OBL would be another story, but that still wouldn't save Bush's political bacon, IMO. Of course cable news will puff the story up...
Also of course, it really is good news. However, it puts into relief the naivte of the salad-Iraq-days notion that capturing one psychopath is a key to success there - it is such a fucked up mess at this point that I can't think of what a clear turning point would BE anymore. But, better late than never.
However, donning my Gotee of Understanding, this reminds me of the dynamics of the American record industry in the 60s-80s (overblown rhetoric purely intended): if you were a pop singer or performer without a Record Contract, you were basically One Hand Strumming; but once you GOT that first contract you were 'in' - no matter how shitty or inconsequential you were, you could keep making deals in LA and keep coming back. Zarqawi was a 'hit' (we made sure he was one) and it almost doesn't matter anymore if he's alive wreaking mayhem, or a martyr-to-be-replaced. Still, a good thing.
Posted by: jonnybutter | June 08, 2006 at 11:30
The elder Sadr, a recent martyr, was a man if tremendous spirituality, much as is Sistani. Clearly, junior has leadership skills; will the real power of Islam come to inhabit him?
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Posted by: kim | June 08, 2006 at 11:34
I like 'if' and 'of'.
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Posted by: kim | June 08, 2006 at 11:36
kim, we can hope.
Hope is not a plan.
Posted by: DemFromCT | June 08, 2006 at 11:48
AP reporters had Zarqawi's home telephone number? And it took this long to kill him?
I suppose the administration will use this as proof that you have nothing to worry about from their NSA surveillance after all.
Posted by: Kagro X | June 08, 2006 at 11:53
A Sunni Arab for Defense Minister, a Shia for Interior, and a Kurd for National Security. A Man, a Plan, Sistanistan.
But Richard Clarke holds out hope for the insurgency. What's his plan?
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Posted by: kim | June 08, 2006 at 12:09
Nadezhda has a good roundup of fallout about this. Turning point or not (not), good news is good news.
Posted by: jonnybutter | June 08, 2006 at 12:10
how pathetic
a guy who made snuff films for a living gets bombed and your main concern is how it will affect Bush's poll numbers...
hmmmm...this doesn't look like a civil war to me
Minutes after the Zarqawi's death was announced the long-debated interior, defense and national security posts were filled in a giddy session of parliament. Abdul Qadir Muhammed Jassim, a Sunni Arab and former Iraqi army commander, was named defense minister, Jawad al-Bolani, a Shiite, was put in charge of the interior ministry, and Sherwan Alwaeli, a Kurd, was named the country's top official for national security.
Posted by: windansea | June 08, 2006 at 12:17
one may not believe what is being said and still be quite sane.
since fantasy and fact are indistinguishable to 90% of humanity
why would we celebrate a puppet any more than say
pinnochio?
Posted by: oldtree | June 08, 2006 at 12:45
if you want to watch a snuff film, watch the "embed" reporting of the iraq invasion
as to civil war: it's the regular war I'm worried about.
Army Sgt. Carlos Pernell, 25
Survivors include Pernell's wife, Tiffanie, and their 14-month-old daughter, Kassidie.
Staff Sgt. Richard A. Blakley, 34
Marine Cpl. Ryan J. Cummings, 22
Maj. Michael Stover, 43
Jaime Jaenke, 30
Jaenke leaves behind a nine-year-old daughter.
Petty Officer 1st Class Gary Rovinski, 44
Rovinski had two daughters, ages 10 and 13.
Those are just from today's headlines... not even all of the ones I see. If Zarqawi's death or new ministers in the Iraqi parliament put an end to it, great. But they won't.
Posted by: emptypockets | June 08, 2006 at 12:50
Every American dead has enfranchised 3,000 Iraqis; a steep but fair price. Truly a hard bargain all around. Baksheesh.
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Posted by: kim | June 08, 2006 at 13:06
Zarqawi was a Jordanian, and the worst of the "foreign fighters" in Iraq. But he was distinct from the home-grown Sunni insurgency, which is based on fear of loss of power and settling scores with Shia and Kurds. Zarqawi's death doesn't really impact that part of the equation.
Resolving the impasse over ministries could be a step forward, but there are many, many steps on this road.
Stock markets not too impressed with the death of Zarqawi, down 125 at one point. Iraq is a primary concern, but so are the economic issues here at home, and Zarqawi's death does nothing on that front.
So it's good, but probably small in the grand scheme of things, like the capture of Saddam Hussein.
Posted by: Mimikatz | June 08, 2006 at 13:07
So it's good, but probably small in the grand scheme of things, like the capture of Saddam Hussein.
you speak for all Iraqi's right?
Posted by: windansea | June 08, 2006 at 13:12
How about oil prices, Mimi? You know the huge terrorist premium in them, surely?
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Posted by: kim | June 08, 2006 at 13:13
It's "Iraqis'", windansea. Gawd, where do you come from? What is your mother tongue?
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Posted by: kim | June 08, 2006 at 13:14
But he was distinct from the home-grown Sunni insurgency, which is based on fear of loss of power and settling scores with Shia and Kurds. Zarqawi's death doesn't really impact that part of the equation.
I guess nominating a sunni for Defense Minister won't have any impact either?
Posted by: windansea | June 08, 2006 at 13:16
It's "Iraqis'", windansea. Gawd, where do you come from? What is your mother tongue?
spelling nazi alert :)
Posted by: windansea | June 08, 2006 at 13:18
He was in Saddam's Air Force until 1999. He's been jailed by Saddam. I don't know why he is still alive. He led Iraqi forces at Fallujah(ahem, that is our, Murican, side forces). Little doubt, he's got tribal support.
Juste No Mo, Neat?
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Posted by: kim | June 08, 2006 at 13:20
Jeste No Mo, ou, peut etre, Geste No Mo.
'Nuff gesticulating.
Sistani a Saint and Sheehan on a dinar bill.
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Posted by: kim | June 08, 2006 at 13:24
if you want to watch a snuff film, watch the "embed" reporting of the iraq invasion
love how you call our soldiers snuff artists in one breath, and then list today's death tally like you care
as to civil war: it's the regular war I'm worried about.
yeah,,,you are so worried about the death of our snuff soldiers right? you don't give a s**t about the Iraqis or our soldiers, what you care about is making Bush look bad so you can win an election.
Posted by: windansea | June 08, 2006 at 13:44
our soldiers are killers. Iraqi fighters are killers. none of them should be killing. and none of them should be dying.
If Bush looks bad, it is not something I can take credit for. and the more Democrats win in the upcoming election, the less unnecessary dying there will be. and that's what I care about.
Posted by: emptypockets | June 08, 2006 at 13:51
Wow. Huge trollage today. Maybe we can tiptoe away and let the trolls continue talking to themselves.
Posted by: CaseyL | June 08, 2006 at 13:56
Wow. Huge trollage today. Maybe we can tiptoe away and let the trolls continue talking to themselves.,/i>
two trolls is huge for this place?
that's pathetic as well
Posted by: windansea | June 08, 2006 at 13:59
,i>the more Democrats win in the upcoming election, the less unnecessary dying there will be.
snort!...can I quote you on that?
Posted by: windansea | June 08, 2006 at 14:01
Casey, you're right -- sorry to you & other readers -- rookie mistake. Some problems at work today and I was itching for a fight. But this one is like executing the retarded... ugly and unproductive. So, sorry for that.
(I also just hated to see the name of one of my favorite beaches in this country get besmirched.)
Posted by: emptypockets | June 08, 2006 at 14:10
windansea , why do you hate freedom?
Posted by: DemFromCT | June 08, 2006 at 14:14
But this one is like executing the retarded... ugly and unproductive. So, sorry for that.
heh...claiming victory already? calling our soldiers snuff artists is something you can be proud of...
(I also just hated to see the name of one of my favorite beaches in this country get besmirched.)
sorry dude...that's my beach...no boogie boarders allowed :)
sorry but we don't allow spongers at windansea
Posted by: windansea | June 08, 2006 at 14:28
windansea , why do you hate freedom?
I love freedom, and the Iraqis are going to surprise you and love it too....
now go back to analyzing the Bush bump, that's what's important to you...not the fact that a head cutting butcher has been taken out
Posted by: windansea | June 08, 2006 at 14:33
There's one group that isn't weeping - Iran
Does Zarqawi "Elimination" Signal Bush Deal With Iran?
by leveymg
Crossposted at DailyKos
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/6/8/74541/27082
Thu Jun 08, 2006 at 04:45:41 AM PDT
It's widely conceded within the U.S. intelligence community that Abu Musab al Zarqawi, a Sunni militant, has served as an asset in U.S. efforts to slow Iran's consolidation of control over Southern Iraq.
His killing by a U.S. air strike earlier today, following a tip received from the Shi'a controlled Iraqi gov't, comes immediately after an apparent deescalation in tensions between Washington and Iran.
leveymg's diary :: ::
Zarqawi, a Jordanian national, commanded Sunni militia responsible for numerous terrorist attacks targeting religious sites and the population of the 60 percent Shi'a majority in Iraq.
As ABC reported last year, the Bush Administration went out of its way to preserve Zarqawi as an ace up its sleeve to counter the Iranian-allied Shi'a majority regime that would likely succeed Saddam Hussein. According to ABC:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200605/s1627197.htm
May 1, 2006.
Abu Musab al Zarqawi ... Former spy says the US had the terrorism figure in its sights.
Bush turned down chances to kill Zarqawi: ex-CIA spy
A former top CIA spy says the United States deliberately turned down several opportunities to kill terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in the lead-up to the Iraq war.
Mike Scheuer headed the CIA's bin Laden unit for six years before resigning in 2004.
He has told the ABC's Four Corners program the Bush administration had Zarqawi in its sights almost every day for a year.
SNIP
Today, The Guardian (UK) reported that Iraqi PM, Nouri al-Maliki, who is Shi'a, announced that Zarqawi had been "eliminated" after high officials in the Shi'a dominated Iraq regime tipped off the U.S. military to his location. Local residents in Baquba, north-east of Baghdad, reportedly informed Iraqi authorities following a grizzly beheading of 17 Shi'a captives in the area. Zarqawi recently released a video in which he called on Sunnis to rise up and exact partisan reprisals. Zarqawi had previously escaped numerous efforts by American forces to locate and kill him. http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,1792817,00.html
The death of Zarqawi comes just as an apparent Bush Administration shift away from threats of military action against Iran toward a diplomatic solution to rising U.S.-Iranian tensions.
Far from the huge victory for the U.S. military that this is being portrayed, the killing of Zarqawi marks the beginning of the end of U.S. attempts to control the outcome in Iraq, and a compromise with Iran, which will surely now move to consolidate control over oil-rich majority Shi'a areas of southern and central Iraq.
____________
2006. Mark G. Levey
Posted by: leveymg | June 08, 2006 at 14:35
An email from a Kurdish Iraqi in Erbil to Michael Tottem:
Yes, Zarqawi was killed and sent to the dustbin of history...
Congratulations to all the Iraqi people...
Congratulations to the families of Zarqawi victims, civilians, children, Iraqi army and police...
Congratulations to the families of the fallen brave American GIs and multinational forces helping transfer Iraq from dictatorship to democracy...
Congratulations to all the gallant Peshmerga forces who are actively participating in hunting down Al-Qaeda and Zarqawi's mercenaries...
Congratulations to all freedom and peace lovers all over the world...
To hell Mr. Zarqawi ...
May Bin Laden be next...Amen...
:)
Posted by: windansea | June 08, 2006 at 14:38
Zarqawi was a Jordanian, and the worst of the "foreign fighters" in Iraq. But he was distinct from the home-grown Sunni insurgency, which is based on fear of loss of power and settling scores with Shia and Kurds. Zarqawi's death doesn't really impact that part of the equation.
Zarqawi, a Jordanian national, commanded Sunni militia responsible for numerous terrorist attacks targeting religious sites and the population of the 60 percent Shi'a majority in Iraq.
so which one is it?
Posted by: windansea | June 08, 2006 at 14:55
windansea sounds very familiar...
Posted by: DHinMI | June 08, 2006 at 15:05
windandsea, whoever it is, seems incapable of thinking beyond his next beer. As noted in the original post, what happens next? What heppens when the violence continues?
windandsea truly hates freedom, for these are not important considerations to him. He'd rather pretend that killing Zarqawi has somehow solved the Iraqi problem.
Posted by: DemFromCT | June 08, 2006 at 15:21
I'll be curious to see how this affects the administrations attempts to tie violence in Iraq to a notable boogie man, now that he is dead. It seems like the official talking points, and no I haven't really read them too closely, always seem to place sucess in Iraq as like totally gonna really happen if it weren't for those suiciders and terrorists. With their nominal leader dead, I think this takes one arrow out of the quiver of the Pentagons PR machine. Now I'm sure they'll begin to start addressing the issue of sectarian violence in Iraq honestly in the media...
In short, I think the death of Zarqawi could (ever the contrarian) be a setback towards putting its own chosen gloss on the anarchy in Iraq because a boogeyman that was in part created by this very war is no longer available for them to trot out and make folks like windansea piss themselves while they hide under the bed.
Posted by: nobody 123 | June 08, 2006 at 16:53
This is the how many-eth time they've killed him? Undoubtedly the insurgency will be over by noon tomorrow.
Posted by: notjonathon | June 08, 2006 at 18:16
NYTimes:
Bush, quoted in NYTimes transcript linked to excerpt above:
Posted by: emptypockets | June 08, 2006 at 19:14
Wow, I sure did miss a lot of hubub around here.
a guy who made snuff films for a living gets bombed and your main concern is how it will affect Bush's poll numbers...
There is something outrageously unfair about the idea that Bush's opposition oughtn't be almost as concerned with his poll numbers as Bush himself is. I say 'almost' because NO ONE can be as obsessed with cheap political theatre and polls as Bush and Rove. Remember, this is a WH which doesn't even have a policy 'shop' in the West Wing - only a political one. And WE can't worry about the poll numbers?! Give me a friggin' break!
Bush's poll numbers matter a LOT. He is a tin-horn and a Disaster, and it matters very very much how weak or strong he is politically. Besides, there's plenty on the 'substance' elsewhere on the web (Nadezha is linked-to above, and there's plenty of other stuff).
Posted by: jonnybutter | June 09, 2006 at 00:01
I hate to throw a wet blanket on any celebrations of Zarqawi's death, but for the gullible here who might believe this is "news" that matters, I suggest you go rent "The Battle of Algiers."
The Algerian resistance to French colonial rule began in the cities in 1954. By 1957, the French had won, wiping out the urban resistance.
In 1962, faced with either granting Algeria its independence in the face of a nation-wide resistance movement or of seeing metropolitan France turned into a battlefield of a civil war, Algeria gained its independence. Internally, between that "victory" in 1957 and the "defeat" of 1962, France had changed government from the Fourth to the Fifth Republic, the internal political struggle had been so momentous.
I would also remind all "victory" celebrators that Cornwallis won all but one of his battles of he southern campaign in our own War of Independence, on his way to defeat at Yorktown. I would suggest you read further on the southern campaign, because our "freedom fighters" then were not all that less bloodthirsty in what they did to Loyalists and other collaborators than is the Iraqi resistance today.
If the Idiot-in-Chief and his fellow rightie fantasists think this is going to do them any good, they are even dumber than I give them credit for, and I give them a LOT of credit.
Posted by: TCinLA | June 09, 2006 at 01:33
Hey, windandsea - does your mommy know you're using the computer tonight? Were you successful in running home from junior high today without getting kicked? You really should get some Clearsil to take care of that volcanic-moonface you call a head, boy.
Posted by: TCinLA | June 09, 2006 at 01:37
Fascinating news conference this morning on CNN -- apparently Zarqawi was not quite dead when the special forces reached the bombing site, he apparently died on a stretcher while mumbling something. The General would not say if a proper post mortem was being done, or whether one was planned.
I suspect Zarqawi's take down was part of a package deal. Remember, earlier this week the US released about 600 prisoners -- mostly Sunni, many tribals. I suspect in exchange for that they got critical intelligence regarding Zarqawi's location, and once the take down was accomplished, then the prime minister inked the deal giving the Sunni the Defense Ministry.
CNN is also reporting multiple raids with many munitions and suicide belts located -- the General said about 15 Zarqawi fighters were arrested. I don't believe the story is really over yet, and given the difference between yesterday's detail and today's -- we still may not know the real story here.
Posted by: Sara | June 09, 2006 at 15:11
Zarqawi's location has been known since early this year. His execution has been held as a 'trump card' to play at an appropriate time.
Wednesday was a designated day for mass call-ins to Congressmen and Senators to demand debate on Iraq. What an appropriate time to play the trump card--execution of Zarqawi.
This 'victory' will likely provide a smokescreen for the lies that got us into the Iraq war. This victory will set the stage for Congressmen and Senators to shill for BushCo about the (facade) initiatives of democracy for Iraq and (facade) war on terror.
What is your Senator's position on "One World Order" and on American Empire?
Posted by: whole2th | June 09, 2006 at 21:17