Flu Stories: Where Are We Now?

by DemFromCT

So it's been an interesting week. The Feds have come out with their new and improved pandemic plan (.pdf), reviwewed here by Greenhammer. While this version is aimed at state, local and private vendors, much of the criticism boils down to

1. unfunded mandates  (show me the money) and
2. who is in charge?  (hint: Mike Chertoff)

But while we engage in planning, experts are meeting in Singapore to try and assess current risk. Highlights include comments from Robert Webster (St. Jude Children's Research Hospital), John Oxford (Barts, UK) and Martin Meltzer (CDC).

A leading expert said Thursday the H5N1 virus is the worst flu virus he's ever encountered, and far too many gaps in planning and knowledge persist for the world to handle it in the event of a pandemic.

The virus is a vicious killer in poultry, moving into the brain and destroying the respiratory tract, said Robert G. Webster, a virologist at the St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn.

"I've worked with flu all my life, and this is the worst influenza virus that I have ever seen," said Webster, who has studied avian flu for decades. "If that happens in humans, God help us."

Hmmm.... that sounds like something right out of a made-for-TV movie.

Bodies piling up so quickly it takes dump trucks to haul them away. Barbed wire to keep whole neighborhoods quarantined. It's Hollywood's version of bird flu, a blur of fact and fiction that some scientists say could confuse the public.

"Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America," an ABC made-for-television movie, airs May 9, just as scientists are to begin testing of wild birds in Alaska that could herald the arrival of bird flu in North America. Scientists fear the bird flu virus could evolve so it could be passed from human to human, sparking a global pandemic.

Well, no one ever said media coverage was always helpful. In an attempt to try and deal with the fact vs fiction aspect of this, Trust For America's Health has put together a web site in time for the ABC movie.

From Pandemic Flu: Get The Real Story:

Public health authorities and scientists throughout the world have sounded the alarm that there is real potential for a pandemic flu outbreak among humans. Because there have been many different news stories about this, it may be difficult for people to separate fact from fiction about a pandemic flu outbreak.

There is no doubt that a pandemic flu outbreak could happen, and it must be taken seriously. But the real story is that you, your family, your employer, and others in your community can take steps to prepare for an outbreak and reduce the risks that a pandemic flu might pose. And there is much that government at every level could be doing as well. Fiction and fear will not protect us - knowing the facts and taking action will. 

Back again to reality, from John Oxford:

A flu pandemic similar to the 1918 outbreak which killed 50 million people a year could be on its way to the UK following the discovery of the deadly H5N1 strain across the English Channel.

John Oxford, Professor of Virology at Barts, claims the likelihood of a human avian flu pandemic was "high and within a span of, say, 18 months".

"I'm not alone in thinking that because, again, the World Health Organisation has begged 250 governments around the world - most of which have ignored them - to take this view on and prepare for this outbreak.

"Because what we do not want is either a New Orleans situation or a Tsunami situation - that is you could predict something was going to happen but you don't do anything about it to prepare."

Now, folks can argue about hype and fear-mongering vs reality and prudence all they want to at Daily Kos. But at least we are aware of the issues and the different sides, and have resources to turn to when facts are called into question. And given the media attention this week and last, and given the continued scientific attention to the issue, separating fact from fiction is a useful task.

Another event of interest is the soon to happen return of birds to Quinghai Lake, China, where different viral variants can meet and mingle. But the focus also need to be on licit and illicit poultry and bird commerce.

Trade in animals - both legal and illegal - is a more likely culprit in spreading bird flu than wild migrating birds, some of the world's top wild bird experts said Friday.

Bird flu has spread from Asia throughout Europe and Africa, but it hasn't yet reached the United States.

"Wild bird monitoring is important, but the real threat comes from trade in poultry," John Flicker, the National Audubon Society's president, said after a Capitol Hill briefing.

And since an informed citizenry is a better prepared citizenry, take the ABC movie with a large dash of salt and keep an eye out for more information from the science and medical researchers. They're worried enough to pay attention, even if they don't dash off to China in a fleet of jets every week to save the world.

crossposted to The Daily Kos

Comments

[Ron Russell]

I work in public health, can see myself literally living at work if this strikes and thank you for the link to the website you referenced. I've already developed a plan and prepared supplies for my better half to ride this out without me, (if necessary). Hopefully you raise awareness and get people going on what they need to do to prepare.

How many know enough to have a detailed medical history available in case they are incapable of communicating their medical conditions? The website previously mentioned has "10 things you and your family can do now to prepare". This is just one of many sites folks can look to for guidance.

The MSM have done a real bad job of preparing us and all they communicate is fear and nothing to effectively cope. For example, as a general rule of thumb, folks should have an emergency stock pile of medication they require and be careful to rotate it so that it doesn't go beyond it's expiration dates. Same thing for Water, food, etc. General rules for any emergency apply (earthquakes, flooding, etc) and as we learned with Katrina, the federal government can no longer successfully run a 2 car parade, let alone competently handle a national disaster. The message we should all be saying to one another is this: Don't panic, be prepared to be on your own and plan ahead now, so you don't have to scramble or put yourself at unnecessary risk later.

[free patriot]

so what are we looking at here, Captian Trips ???

I remember the same dire warnings about AIDS a few decades back, and that threat never materialized, even in spite of ronnie raygun's best efforts to avoid addressing the problem

I also remember the anthrax scare in 2001

I think the real problem about the possibility of a flu pandemic is; because of our past experiences, and wacked out government officials recomending we stock up on tuna and plastic sheeting, nobody takes the threat seriously

I got 4 tons of tuna, 850,000 square yards of plastic sheeting, and 270 miles of duct tape, and the neighbors think I'm nuts. Everything will be okay as soon as I eat enough tuna to get back inside the house. but I can still hear the neighbors laughing outside my plastic coated tent

the poor doomed bastards

/snark

[DemFromCT]

free patriot, reread the post above you. All the snark in the world won't change the need to do some thinking about disaster preparedness.

Flu Wiki got started because the idea of waiting for the Feds or the media to Do The Right Thing seemed futile.

But if you think this is all about tuna fish and duct tape, think again. Go back and do your homework, check the offered sites, and learn something instead of assuming you already know it all.

[free patriot]

my point is more about why people don't think this is a serious issue

our nation (the USA) can't do anything about disaster preparedness without the support of the people, and the people have seen several false alarms in their lives

george bush prefers using fear mongering, which precludes finding real solutions

I think the whole US government is useless on this issue as long as george occupies the whitehouse (similarities to ronnie raygun and aids)

if other nations are not taking this threat seriously (like france did during the AIDS epidemic), I would suggest forming a private group to develop real and useful information packets for distribution to the people

necessity is the mother of invention, and george bush has created a BIG need for the truth to be distributed

I didn't mean to step on your ideas. I just wanted to point out some of the reasons that people don;t think your efforts are important

[Ron Russell]

I agree with you free_patriot. Katrina shows us in no uncertain terms that in Bush's "Ownership Society", we are on our own. But the worst thing we can do is what the Bush admin and the MSM would have us do--panic.

This issue comes down to common sense and the boy scout motto: Be prepared. I'm not saying go out and buy 8,00 cans of tuna, plastic sheeting and enough duct tape to go to the moon (as DHS would have us do). What the message here should be, relates to any emergency. That would include Flooding, Earthquakes, Blizzards, etc or even a prolonged illness. Simple things can help you out during minor emergencies as blackouts, like having a manual can opener available. When you plan for those possibilites, you put in place a foundation for a plan to prepare for all contingencies. Obviously, each situation would be different--but the basic's are the same. What would those around you do if you weren't there for them. Would they know what to do? Do you have an alternative contact out of state in a regional disaster who can coordinate information between seperated family members? I'm only an IT guy (in Public Health) and am a designated disaster worker. In a Pandemic, I can see myself filling in for so many roles, that I'd likely live at work. When any large group of equipment are stressed out, they need more technical support as is the need to help the technically challenged. On the local level, I've already participated in disaster drills and planning sessions where those skills are documented--in case they need me to plug holes. I keep clothes, medicine, additional food, etc at work as well and my better half knows what to do without me. I also keep a smaller set of supplies in both cars in case we have to live out of them if our building was destroyed. Knowing she will be all right no matter what, gives me the confidence to perform my mandated disaster responsibilities. This failure to plan showed itself during Katrina, with police officers abandoning their responsibilities to take care of their families.

All of us on my level have been taught these things, and are directed to an internal website to easily refresh our knowledge on the topic. Everyone should read the Disaster Contingency Plans where they work, so that you have an idea of what you'd be asked/required to do. If your employer doesn't have a plan, perhaps you should propose that one be developed. I also keep a copy of our plan at home. Chances are, your role in a situation might be quite different or you may be told to stay at home. Your employer may treat you in a fashion where you can't go home if you want to keep your job. In that situation, you have many more options if you have planned for those you love. If you have to stay at home, have you saved the sick time you'd need for more than a week off the job? Do you have a rainy day fund, just for simple things? I know many live paycheck to paycheck and that's setting yourself up for disaster. In a pandemic, you will likely still have to pay your rent, mortgage, etc.

Have enough supplies, including food, water, batteries, medicine, etc to ride things out. Aside from concern about failing to plan, my worry is that people stock up and then allow what they have to sit around until it passes it's consumption date. I went through so many batteries that I bought rechargable one's. The downside to that is rechargable batteries are not as effective as ordinary batteries, so I needed to set aside a larger supply and ensure they are periodically recharged. Put purchase dates on canned goods and pay attention to medicine label dates. If you have canned food lying around for 5 years (as an example), you may not want to eat it when push comes to shove. If you purcahse any of the commercial disaster kits, look at what's perishable and plan to replace it as documented in the kit's instructions. The last thing you want to do is read the instructions for the first time in an emergency. By then, it may be too late to replace perishable items or you may be so rattled that you don't make logical decisions. But the main thing I think all of us should be saying to one another, is DON'T PANIC. Although the Bush admin would like to keep you permanently scared, that's the worst thing you can do. Panic precludes rational solutions and forward thinking planning.