CT Sends Lieberman and Bush A Message

by DemFromCT

I haven't much mixed it up with Ned Lamont and Joe Lieberman on TNH, mostly because I have so little insight to add. But in the wake of Lamont's surprising 33% delegate strength at the Democratic convention yesterday (forcing Joe into a summer primary), a few words are in order. People have wondered what's going on. In oder to get on the August 8 primary ballot, Lamont needed 15% of the delegates to vote for him. Many expected him to fall short and get on the ballot by petition and signatures.

Instead Lamont doubled the needed number. He's going to be on the August ballot. He hasn't won and remains a distinct underdog, but Lieberman was just sent a powerful message. The establishment is not rock-solid behind him as he assumed they would be, incumbents are not a sure thing, people are angry at Bush and want to take it out on someone.

And Joe is going to have to defend his behavior all summer.

The best summary was last week in the Hartford Courant:

Between Malloy/DeStefano and Lieberman/Lamont, it's unclear which is the title bout and which the undercard. A governor's race is normally the main event, but Lamont's insurgency has overshadowed this one and will do so awhile longer.

It's partly the year. The election is about Washington, not Hartford. George W. Bush may not go down as the worst president in American history, but he's a cinch for honorable mention. People are so angry at him it's hard to get them talking about much else.

Gene McCarthy took 40% in the NH primary in 1968. He lost, but won - knocking LBJ out of contention for a second full term. The message was unmistakable then as it is now. From the NY Times:

Cheers erupted as Mr. Lamont swept several small towns, where he typically fared better than he did in larger cities like Hartford, Bridgeport and New Haven, which have entrenched Democratic establishments. Some supporters of Mr. Lamont said they had hoped to win only the necessary 15 percent of the vote and many said they were thrilled to have won more.

In an appearance after the vote, Mr. Lamont said his showing would resonate beyond Connecticut. "Thirty-three percent is telling the people in Washington, we want change," he said.

Mr. Lamont, 52, once a selectman in Greenwich, has received support among liberal bloggers across the country and through a statewide petition effort. Opposition to the war is widespread in the state, and Senator Lieberman has been resolutely in favor of keeping troops in Iraq.

The question now is how will Joe react? Will he be Humphrey in '68, refusing to get the message and splitting the party, or willl he use his considerable standing to pull things together and run as a better Democrat (as suggested here by a Daily Kos commenter?

Joe is still likely to win, but how he wins is up to him - and will tell us more about Lieberman than anything you'll read on the internets.

Comments

[Mimikatz]

Joe has already made threats to suck up all the party money in his fight with Lamont--to the detriment of Democratic congressional condidates (Joe Courtney, Chris Murphy and Diane Farrell) who supported him, knowing of his vindictiveness. If he follows through, his peevishness will contribute to his demise. Nothing like rewarding loyalty.

Francine Busby is reportedly 7% ahead in the CA-50 runoff, which will be held coincident with the CA primary on June 6. The RNC has reportedly spent $2 million on a race they should have been able to win comfortably.

Busby and Lamonta are very different, but suited to their constituencies. Busby is more conservative and has highlighted corruption (running for the Dukestir's seat) and education, her area of expertise. Lamont has highlighted the war and tech/innovation/education, his area of expertise. The netroots and an army of volunteers have backed both of them with enthusiasm.

Change is coming. The DC folks on both sides of the aisle had better start listening.

[emptywheel]

Great post--I like the analogy to McCarthy.

The GOP will be poorer this year for two more reasons. Probably 3 million have been sucked out of campaign coffers for legal defense funds for individuals, plus the $3 million and other legal fees that have bankrupted the NH GOP. Maybe we've finally found a way to equalize GOP deep pockets?

[DHinMI]

Good point on the legal costs. And if it were just a few "bad apples," I wonder if the GOP would be spending so much money to provide the phone jammers with top-notch legal representation.

[emptywheel]

Here's an interesting rumor. I'll believe it when I see it. Going Inde doesn't get you all the GOP votes and it threatens to lose you the votes of a lot of people who believe in democratic process.

But it's interesting anyway.

[MissLaura]

If that rumor does come true, I wonder how it'll play with voters. It could look like serious whining - especially to people who haven't been following the election and don't know what a victory it was for Lamont to get over 30%, could it be like "it wasn't good enough for him that he got 66% of the vote, he has to leave the party over it?"

[emptywheel]

Like I said, I don't put much stock in it. Lieberman would be smarter to run as a Republican at this point. He'd get payback on some committee and he'd be assured of getting the GOP vote.

But hey, again just pretending it were true, if Joe left the party, maybe he'd take TNR Democrats with him.

[demtom]

I can see the appeal for Lieberman in jumping to indie status now -- he'd be able to strike his favorite stance ("those extremes are so awful, I alone represent goodness in the center"). If he waited and did the same thing after losing a primary, there would be a bigger sore loser/ care-more-about-myself-than-my-party vibe.

I agree with Dem, knocking Lieberman off is still a long shot...but not as long as it used to be. The scent in the wind is stronger some days than others, but it's really starting to feel like a year of momentous change.

[DemFromCT]

demtom, my town and the surrounding towns are trying to pass their yearly budgets. It ain't happening. Everyone's mad, even the people that never get mad.

Something indeed is happening. I wouldn't want to be an incumbent unless I knew damn well I was doing a great job.

[Sara]

Lamont should not be running to make a point -- he should be running to win in August, and as I understand things he has a plan to do this, and a very tight and talented campaign staff that knows how to run this kind of race. I think it very important that we document Lamont's strategy as he rolls it out, because it is highly useful knowledge in other places and in other times.

What happened at the convention has little to do with August -- ovservers should just draw a line under it and say great show. What matters now is field organization, and the specifics of that are -- can Lamont grow organization independent of the existing party structure in Bridgeport, New Haven and Hartfprd where an Urban and significantly minority population lives and generally votes Democratic? Has he found well known community leaders from the Hispanic and the African American and ethnic groups that have signed on to the campaign -- and has he employed any field organizers from these communities? If he has a plan to win, he has that in hand -- if not, the blogosphere should not be shy about criticism. For some community leaders in these communities linking up with Lamont could (assuming his success) be the key to higher engagement in the party, and many might be interested in taking this risk. Likewise this is a case where you need to find a small number of issues that resonate with minority communities where Lieberman has voted against their interests -- and figure how to cast them into the ground campaign. For instance, Techno is not going to play well in these communities alone -- but if you can wrap it in Lieberman not supporting solid techno education in minority schools -- a way of saying affirmative action without actually using those words -- then you may catch voters. Anyhow it is critical that Lamont have strategy and tactics for taking a significant part of this minority vote -- at least 50% of it.

No one should expect any major Democratic Elected Officials to take sides in this primary. Elected officials just don't really do that normally. What you do need to accomplish is to put a price on not maintaining a neutral silence on the matter. Someone needs to quietly let Hillary, for instance, that they will not look favorable on her in 2008 if she doesn't keep her mouth shut in public. Not a public message mind you -- a quiet private one. You want to get the same message out to elected officials all over the country -- that the people of CT want to have a democratic election, and they should not use party or personal political assets in the primary.

Al Fromm can bring to the table huge financial assets for Lieberman, and he is mentally programmed to do it. You need to be astute in dealing with him and the DLC. If it gets dirty, I bet it comes from this direction. It will probably come in the form of independent expenditures (something like a Democratic swiftboating) than through the party. You have two huge power centers in the Democratic Party about to lock horns here -- and you don't want to be blindsided.

By the way, I don't think Nancy Pelosi would be all that happy about Lieberman threatening to take all the party assets for his campaign, given that CT has three seats in the house that can be swung in 06. People working on those campaigns ought to ask Nancy to talk with Joe and get him to back off.

Anyhow, it twill be a fascinating race -- and it can be won.

[Mimikatz]

I have read several times that a candidate intending to run as in independent has to file all his signatures the day after the primary. In other words, Lieberman has to make a decision to fish or cut bait well before the primary so that he can gather the necessary signatures. He can't be having people surreptitiously going around gathering signatures while he's campaigning in the Dem primary. So expect a decision from him in late June or early July, if his polling suggests he is going to lose the primary.

Of course, he may be like his master Bush and "not believe the polls. They still like me, they really, really like me."

[JohnLopresti]

On a national scale, the Democratic Party nominee for president needs to think of the party's future, as well as votes at the convention, in selecting the vice presidential candidate for the ticket. I certainly worried about the portent of both Lieberman and Edwards as standard bearers after their respective presidents termed out; and would question what leadership either has shown in the Democratic Party. CT may have a lot of measured upper middle class lower upper class voters, but can do better than the maverick kind of conservatism Lieberman has pursued in Congress. Now if I can just contact everyone I know in Yantic and Norwalk, maybe we can surprise Lieberman this summer. There are a lot more smarts in CT's Democratic Party electorate than stereotypes would predict.

[DHinMI]

mimikatz is correct; Joementum can't just up and decide to run as an Indy if he loses the primary. That threat is, from what I can tell, hollow. Furthermore, even if he thought about running as an indy should he lose the Dem primary, many states have "sore loser" laws to prevent just such moves, and that list may include CT.

Whatever the case is, I think it would behove everyone to try to sort out the actual viability of Joementum running as an Indy before speculating on what it would mean. It may not even be an option, but something he's using as a scare tactic.

[Rafe]

There's also the possibility that he could run as a write-in candidate. Write-ins, unlike independents, can file to run at any time.