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April 10, 2006


Perhaps those of us who argued - to much hissing and booing even from many alleged liberals - in 2002 and early 2003 that there should be "No Blood of Oil" should have argued that the war would produce "No Oil for Blood." It seems that when the SUV ox is gored, a certain segment of the American people will speak in opposition.

...obviously, I meant "No Blood for Oil" ...

After I wrote this post I read Meteor Blades' question what it would take to get Americans to oppose war with Iran. What about $5 a gallon gasoline and mortgage foreclosures?

The Dems should not fall into the trap of feeling they have to support another round of Bush insanity. Things are different, and they ought to be poll-driven, if not astute, enough to realize that. And this time around, those warning of dire consequences need only point to the gas pump and interest rates as proof to make these points.

If taking the option of a preemptive nuclear strike off the table is enough to get one branded as "weak on national security," then I don't really see what the Democrats could ever do to avoid that label. I'd be content to see them take that position, though, and let the Republicans twist in the wind as they struggle to choose between taking the exact same position and appearing batshit insane.

i don't think democrats have to focus on the rightness or wrongeness of destroying iran's nuclear capabliity.

focus instead on this :

any military attack on iran in the next year will be


no need for months of public chat about bomb/no bomb, invade/no invade, nuclear bomb/no nuclear bomb.

if i was a democratic politician or political advisor,

i would be fast out the gate with this soundbite:


is looming.

emphasize bush's history with these big decisions - he doesn't know what he's doing.

emphasize that his national security "team" had their heads up their coat closets on iraq.

why would iran be any different?

set the terms of the public discussion early


to whit:

-- bush is trying to influence the elections (anybody recall those endless moronic media/ republican pol discussions about "wag the dog" during clinton's small foreign adventures.


what's the hurry?

iran does not have the bomb now and won't have it before november, 2006. (in fact, it may take iran a decade to develop a useable weapon.)

and just developing a weapon isn't enough.

you've got to have have a reliable delivery method. you can't just send one of these thing u.p.s.

recommendation to timid, reactive demo pols:

pre-emptive verbal strike against rove-bush-mehlman:

"another BUSH-LED


is headin' our way.

only the republicans in congress won't do anything to stop it.

Great post, Mimikatz.

Interesting, btw. Everyone here thinks Bush is the shit (I've agreed with the main client here that we'll drink beers at the end of the week so he can use the language he was thinking when he first asked me about politics). And, unfortunately, they say people here believe that Americans support Bush and everything he does.

But there is almost no concern about oil here. Which, in a place with rolling blackouts (and its summer, so there's the question of air conditioning), is really surprising.

Darn, this post was a comfort and relief. I feel much better. Now, excuse me, I have read some Thucydides about the Syracuse Expedition.

If Bush goes for it, it will be a learnng experience for us all.

Laura Rozen quotes at length from the (only privately available) Nelson Report, substantiating the notion that the military is very, very concerned that Bush and his fantasists will talk themselves into war with Iran. (And I am one of those who believes that any strike against a sovereign nation is an act of war.) We'll do our part to try to force that debate on consequences.

This quote from Lt. General Gregory Newbold pretty well sums it up:

"What we are living with now is the consequences of successive policy failures. Some of the missteps include: the distortion of intelligence in the buildup to the war, McNamara-like micromanagement that kept our forces from having enough resources to do the job, the failure to retain and reconstitute the Iraqi military in time to help quell civil disorder, the initial denial that an insurgency was the heart of the opposition to occupation, alienation of allies who could have helped in a more robust way to rebuild Iraq, and the continuing failure of the other agencies of our government to commit assets to the same degree as the Defense Department. My sincere view is that the commitment of our forces to this fight was done with a casualness and swagger that are the special province of those who have never had to execute these missions--or bury the results." (My emphasis.)

"Paul Krugman: If we got a news flash tonight saying that bombs are dropping on Iran, do you have any confidence that leading figures in politics and the media would have the courage to condemn the president's action and question his motives? I don't. There would be a chorus of people — which would surely include just about every prominent Republican, plus Joe Lieberman and the editorial pages of The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal — praising the president and denouncing anyone who raises questions for undermining the commander-in-chief in a time of war. The public might nonetheless turn on the administration, but I wouldn't count on it." Thanks to Mark Thoma at The Economist's View

Ok, folks, your Dem leadership will not be willing, while the country is engaged in a wide foreign war and economic catastrophe, to take our domestic politics into civil war. The Bush administration will, make no mistake, arrest dissidents and start shooting people. They remember Vietnam. If you want to stop what might be a descending spiral into fascism, it will require individual acts of courage which will turn into spontaneous mass uprisings. I guarantee violence.

If Iran goes down, it will be up to each of us. I wish if had happened six years ago, when an obvious madman without scruples stole an election.

Geez Bob, 2 million protesters in the streets ove immigration, and its only April

you don't think people are gonna be pissed about attacking Iran ???

for starters, you ain't gonna drive your car ever again

oil embargos against the us will see to that

next, your bank is gonna foreclose on your house, cause interest rates are 25%, and deflation has reduced your house's value below the morgage principle

oh, did I mention that you won't have a job ???

no oil = no power = no commuters = no jobs

you don't think that's gonna piss people off enough to march against washington

we're already gonna be walking, might as well get some revenge for it

I had a conversation with my cousin's husband, an oil exploration engineer, a while back. I asked him what he thought of how things were going in Iraq. He said, "Just fine." As continued, "So Bush hasn't made any mistakes there?" Answer: "Nope." My cynical self tells me that what he means by this is that chaos in Iraq has made his job easier and more fun. As the price of oil has gone up, more exploration and development have become possible.

So far, the chaos we have birthed in the ME oil patch has benefitted the oil majors. The question now is, where is the tipping point for the corporate bosses who ultimate call the shots in BushCo? Is Iran a raise too high to cover? Stay tuned.

i liked the quote from general newbold very much.

thanks for highlighting it.

it precisley captures the cold, ignorant insouciance of bush, cheny, rumsfeld, wolfowitz, perle, feith, et al.

playing war with other people's lives (and other people's money, too).

Thanks Mimikatz.

it is time to go into the streets of Washington DC and protest.

(No other protests will get noticed; only ones that disrupt the commute.)

Weekday protests. Regularly. Maybe monthly.

Something unusual that provides a "news hook" more substantial than whispers.

In these mad days, citizenship requires more than earnest complaining to our friends.

Time to take a few days off and stand up for what we believe.

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