Flu Stories

by DemFromCT

[UPDATE]: WaPo on new US Plan:

The background briefing and on-the-record interviews with experts in and out of government reveal that some agencies are far along in preparing for a deadly outbreak. Others have yet to resolve basic questions, such as who is designated an essential employee and how the agency would cope if that person were out of commission.

"Most of the federal government right now is as ill-prepared as any part of society," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Osterholm said the administration has made progress but is nowhere near prepared for what he compared to a worldwide "12- to 18-month blizzard."

Many critical decisions remain to be made. Administration scientists are debating how much vaccine would be needed to immunize against a new strain of avian influenza, and they are weighing data that may alter their strategy on who should have priority for antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu and Relenza.

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Over the past few weeks, H5N1 has simmered in Africa (birds) and boiled over in Egypt and Indonesia (people). And there's a Dane who is being tested today (it's a suspect, not a confirmed, despite the link).

There has been speculation in Nature about the role of cats and the role of infected poultry.

Can people catch the H5N1 avian flu virus by eating infected poultry? Colin Blakemore, chief executive of the U.K. Medical Research Council, says the public need not worry.

"There is no evidence of transmission to people by eating cooked eggs or chicken," he said on BBC radio last week, adding that the only food risk he could see was from "drinking swans' blood."

Blakemore's sound bite came a day after Britain's first case of H5N1 in a wild bird was confirmed in a dead swan found floating in a harbour in Cellardyke, Scotland. His advice echoes a slew of recent reassurances by governments worldwide and by the World Health Organization, all conscious of damaging public confidence in the poultry industry.

But many flu scientists are concerned that, although the risks are low, there is not enough evidence to say that the virus cannot be transmitted by eating infected poultry.

"Oral transmission is an open question," says Masato Tashiro, a virologist at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Tokyo. "Direct evidence of oral infection is lacking, but so too is proof against."

The IMF says a bird flu pandemic would have serious impact on global economy. And MIT has run a simulation showing what happens to the supply chain.

At first, the reports from your supplier in China seem innocent enough: an assembly line worker has become very ill and is hospitalized with flu-like symptoms. Before you know it, workers are dying, the government has quarantined your factory and its contents, your supply chain is in ruins, and reporters are camped out at your company headquarters with a fleet of satellite news trucks.

The overall picture remains the same as we have been reporting. Rather than a hyped problem built around 'fear-mongering' (a term I have come to loathe), H5N1 remains a slow, steady endemic infection in birds, with occasional but lethal spred to humans, and we do not fully understand everything we need to know about this virus to make confident predictions. For example (as also reported here) months ago, the media is catching up to the idea that bird smuggling may play an important transmission role.

Nancy Morgan, an economist at F.A.O., said smuggling could have easily introduced bird flu into Nigeria and Egypt, the two African countries with the most extensive bird flu problems.

"In developing countries, the border controls are marginal at best," she said. "As long as there's economic incentive, it will happen."

Producers in Egypt and Nigeria frequently import day-old chicks for about 20 cents a bird, she said, because it is easier to buy them than to master the delicate technology of hatching. In Nigeria, all the chicks were smuggled and therefore not inspected, because all imports were banned by the government to protect a young domestic industry.

Poultry products can also bring the virus into a country: infected chicken parts in feed or fertilizer, secondhand cages once used to house infected birds, or cheap meat that ends up being used on a farm or in a home where other birds are kept.

The main concern is China, a country with a serious bird flu problem.

And in any country (China, N. Korea, Iraq) where surveillance is weak, difficult or supressed, surprises await.

Bird flu may not be in the news every day, but it's there, and being tracked by amateurs and professionals around the world. Stay tuned, as this is neither a problem that will go away nor a problem that is as predictable as TPTB would have you believe.

We'll try to keep you regularly updated on what's happening outside of DC and the beltway.

Crossposted at The Daily Kos.

Comments

[orionATL]

i read recently, maybe in the ny times science section (tuesdays),

that bird flu may not be spread wild bird to domestic bird, but rather

domestic flock to domestic flock, including chick or chicken transfers.

i don't know how much weight this new view has

but it certainly indicates to me we are learning more things and new things about this disease month-by-month.

[DemFromCT]

it's been speculatd that that's how it got to Nigeria... from turkish chicks. Yet, swams brought it to germany from russia.

This is a very complex virus, with much to learn. No smugness about 'what we know'.

[Melanie]

Smuggling may well be a serious disease vector.