by DemFromCT
The holidays are for reflection, and reflection on the war leads to conclusions. Gallup lays out where the public is at, and there is no margin of error that matters.
American opposition to the war in Iraq appears to have steadied, with clear majorities saying that it was a mistake to send U.S. troops there, and that the United States will not win and should withdraw at least some, if not all, of its troops. Public approval of the way President George W. Bush has been handling the situation in Iraq is tied at the lowest level measured by Gallup.
These findings come from the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted April 7-9, 2006. It shows that 57% of Americans think the United States will not win in Iraq, including 21% who think the U.S. can win but will not.
Democrats in Congress who can not deal with this fact of life need to get a new job. Americans want a bipartisan approach, but that has to start with opposition to Bush's current disastrous policy. Start with a Democratic call for Rumsfeld's head, and go from there. By November, this will be the issue of record for the election.
Only a third of Americans (33%) prefer to keep the same number of troops in Iraq as there are now, including 8% who would actually increase the number. But 64% of Americans would prefer to withdraw troops -- 36% say to withdraw "some" troops, while 28% want to withdraw all troops.
Given these negative views, it's not surprising that Bush's approval rating on the situation in Iraq is at only 32% -- tied for the lowest rating Gallup has measured since the first rating in October 2002.
If you're running in November, where do you stand... and why? The American people are way smarter than the politicians. Avoiding the question is quickly turning into a ticket to nowhere. And, btw, the answer better make sense.
Add-on thoughts. See WaPo today:
Intense and widespread opposition to President Bush is likely to be a sharp spur driving voters to the polls in this fall's midterm elections, according to strategists in both parties, a phenomenon that could give Democrats a turnout advantage over Republicans for the first time in recent years.
Bush is as successful at selling the war as he is at selling Social Security 'reform'. Americans are at the 'tune out/go away' phase with Bush. He's a reminder of that painful mistake at the voting booth... the one that makes Bush voters 'not interested in politics anymore' when you talk to them. Denial, bargaining, anger, depression, acceptance. They are somewhere between depressed and accepting of his incompetence. keep that in mind when you talk to them, and don't rub their faces in it. Just give them an alternative.
What is curious is the thinking of the 36 percent who want to withdraw "some" troops. If the troops we have there now are not enough to win (however that is defined!), what on earth would make it worthwhile to stay there but with fewer troops?
Moreover, 60 percent still think we "can" win (again, whatever that means), though a third of those think we could but won't.
These numbers reinforce my belief that it's important in the short run to blame our leaving on the Iraqis. And more generally to frame the exit policy as "leaving in disgust" rather than "defeat." Once we are out of there, the Iraqis themselves will fall entirely off the US public radar, and if things turn generally sour in the Middle East - as would be the least of surprises - the argument should not be "who lost Iraq" but "who got us mixed up with those people in the first place?"
Cynical, but necessary.
-- Rick
Posted by: al-Fubar | April 17, 2006 at 10:40
Rick, an alternative explanation is that Americans are defeat averse, but know there's no easy answer. hence, withdraw some but not all, and don't admit we can't win.
Posted by: DemFromCT | April 17, 2006 at 11:11
As I turned the page on yet another story about Barry Bonds and steroids, I thought: this must be how many of those who voted for Bush feel--let's just don't talk about it any more.
For the Dems, this means focusing on the future not the past. How do we prevent this kind of gross miscalculation form happening again? One, get rid of the people who dod it. But two, let's insist on an honest debate about Iran this time--no phoney-baloney intel and talking ourselves into a corner from which we have to attack to "be tough." And see Arkin this morning. Be sure to read the comments too.
Posted by: Mimikatz | April 17, 2006 at 11:57
I was surprised today to see that the Rasmussen poll has Bush approval at 39%. Rasmussen is usually at least five points higher than any other poll. I can't remember if Rasmussen has had Bush as low as 39% before.
Posted by: Pilgrim | April 17, 2006 at 12:03
Americans want out of Iraq. I fear Bush may get them out same way he got them out of Afghanistan, by charging off to another war, this time with Iran, perhaps in October. The rest of the world gets to go around and clean up after him.
Posted by: Pilgrim | April 17, 2006 at 12:04
Rasmussen:
The President's Job Approval is at 39% for the second straight day. This is the lowest level ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports.
Posted by: DemFromCT | April 17, 2006 at 12:17
It might be time to start the war crimes proceedings against Bush and his team of "advisors". They started an illegal war by telling lies, they are perpetuating a war by telling lies and they are justifying it by telling lies, which most narrow minded Americans seem to be swallowing hook, line and sinker. All in the name of "peace". What a load of crap. Saddam Hussien was no more a threat to American security than my arse is pineapple. Granted he wasn't very nice to his people but he was no threat to the states, unless you take the threat of oil supply into account. Bush was just pissed off that he didn't get bin laden in Afganistan so he turned on then next available thorn in his side. Team America strikes again.
The worst thing is that America doesn't learn from it's mistakes. In 200 years the only war they have actually won was amongst themselves. Good record guys. It might be time for America to realise that they are not the global police that they think they are. No one has asked them to be and no one wants them to be. The world would be a much safer place if they would just keep their nose out of other peoples business and sort their own back yard out.
Posted by: brian w | April 17, 2006 at 18:19
I agree with you, brian w, but don't they go around saying they won the second world war?
The previous involvement of Britain, Canada, and many other allies was really nothing to mention.
Posted by: Pilgrim | April 17, 2006 at 21:21
You give too much credit to the public being way smarter than the politicians. If they were we wouldn't be in this mess. I'm sorry but as far as I can tell, the public is not interested in any serious themes, but instead prefer news concerning missing white women to the crisis approaching from all angles.
Posted by: NewCenturyProf | April 18, 2006 at 13:06