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March 01, 2006

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It isn't that the emperor has no clothes. His suits are spun from the finest promises. The problem is that we can see that his suits are empty when he puts them on!

I wrote a dairy somewhat related to this on KOS a few weeks ago. I will repost it here below. Even though I felt/feel that the mood of independents and moderate Repubs is indeed shifting away from Repub incumbents, notice how voters in my poll felt.
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Are many Republicans going to bolt their party?

What would be the strong tell-tale signs of a coming Repub electoral disaster for you?

--Polls? Well these can be tainted.

--How about daily interactions with others? I guess it depends on who you interact with.

I wish a had a well-functioning crystal ball, but the recent past has told me I do not. However, recently I have seen some real signs of impending disaster for the Repub party. These signs by no means constitute a scientific analysis and are quite subjective, but I have a strong suspicion that they ARE a prodromal sign for a Repub repudiation on a massive scale.

First, I have been watching C-span's call in Journal in the morning, and this morning, I heard several callers who stated they were lifelong Repubs but had seen the light. They did not love the Dems, but now believed their ?former party was bad for America's future. They would not vote Repub in the next election.

I talk daily with many conservative Repubs in my area. They do not like the Democrat's track record for encouraging personal responsibility, but they are now more afraid of the damage that greedy and corrupt Repub leaders are inflicting on America. In the next election, they will vote for change even though they still do not really trust and like Democractic party policies and tendencies.

I guess we all have to come to conclusions on our own. No amount of yelling and media bias can really make us change our minds. We must "see the light" as one C-Span caller said today. Maybe the old Churchill statement of, "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else", is true, and that everything else requirement has been exhausted. See poll.

Poll"
From your recent interactions with Repub and Independent voters, how do you REALLY think they see the next election?

They will stay the course and vote as they previously did because they like and trust the current Repubs in power.
11%

They will stay the course and vote as they previously did because they dislike the Democracts more than the current in-power Repubs.
55%

They will vote for change because the Repubs have screwed up so badly.
31%

They will vote for change because the Democracts have such better ideas than the current Repubs.
1%

Votes: 154

Dissident Republicans in Congress forced Bush to sign a measure banning torture of detainees despite his initial veto threat, blocked renewal of the USA Patriot Act until their civil liberties concerns were addressed and pressured the White House into accepting legislation on its secret eavesdropping program.

What outrageous dissidence! Bush line-item vetoed their measure banning torture, forced them to settle for cosmetic changes to the PATRIOT Act or be Swift Boated by their own Party, and will now pass legislation the president will "accept" the same way he did the torture ban.

Yeah, they're coming around all right.

Given their zombie-like affect, that IS coming around. But how they vote is far less imprtant than how Americans vote - or stay home - whichever the case may be.

I don't see R folks voting for Dems as much as I see them staying home.

Surely the other significant omen would be actual election results. We've had only a few races, at very minor levels, and I haven't exactly catalogued them, but my impression, from following on Kos, is that Democrats have performed at an unexpectedly strong level in places like Missouri et al. Obviously there's no certainty of correlation to November -- Herseth didn't foretell good news her year -- but, combined with the dire polls, it gives one greater hope than usual.

And the bad news for the administration just seems to keep coming.

My thinking is that they'll use the president's supposed "inherent powers" as much as a political tool as a policy tool, allowing face-saving legislation to be "passed" in order to distance endangered Republicans from the Bush cancer, only to have it negated later by superconstitutional powers of Unitary Executive Man.

Everybody gets what they want. As long as everybody's a Republican.

DemFromCT - Exactamundo. Very few Republicans will see the light on the road to Damascus (Baghdad?), but demoralization could make quite a few stay home. Or at a different level, vote but not walk a precinct in October.

The consistant pattern of recent cycles is that the side with more voltage wins.

-- Rick

IIRC, the big falloff for the Dems in 1994 was in the women's vote. Many just stayed home. I wonder if there will be sufficient catalysts, like potential loss of reproductive rights or a shift in the fear factor that bring more women to the polls voting Dem in 2006 while R's stay home. Another factor is watching elderly parents struggle with the drug non-benefit. I think things look pretty good for the Dems, but we will know more after the April 11 special election in CA-50.

Ah, yes. The portents are everywhere. And harder to interpret than a WHO update on bird flu.

Another portent:

House Republicans could see 10 to 15 more retirements

Bush: But there's a difference. A Hamas-led government of Palestine wants to destroy Israel. Dubai Ports World simply wants to boycott Israel.

The Bush admin's foreign policy is nothingless than incoherent. It doesn't make sense from any normal moral perspective.

Another thing, Cheney is out challenging people to step up and critize their war strategy. This is somebody's big chance to offer a new approach. They will be widely heard.

Cheney is a dumbass. He just shot a guy and now he's out there challenging someone to criticize his senseless foriegn policy.

I'd say the first thing we do is fix the constitution. Address the federalism issue fairly. Get rid of the mechanisms regarding political redistricting. Give Sunni politicians a real chance to secure the rights of their people.

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