Civil War Likely In Iraq, Say Americans

by DemFromCT

The American people have taken in all the slipping and sliding by the Bush Administration and Fox News and come to the following conclusion:

Amid recent violence sparked by the bombing of a sacred Shiite Muslim mosque, the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds three in four Americans saying that civil war in Iraq is likely. Fewer Americans now perceive that the United States can and will win the war in Iraq than did so in December. Meanwhile, basic support for the war is stable, with a majority saying the war was a mistake for the United States. Americans continue to favor a reduction of U.S. troop levels in Iraq, but only about one in four favor an immediate withdrawal.

According to the Feb. 28-March 1 poll, 75% of Americans think "a major civil war involving ethnic or religious groups in Iraq is likely in the next year," or is already occurring. Just 20% think a civil war is unlikely. Fears of a civil war have grown after the bombing of a Shiite Muslim mosque in Samarra, which prompted retaliatory attacks against Sunni Muslim holy sites. Seventy percent of Americans are following the news of these events closely, including 25% who are following them "very closely." Most Americans think civil war is likely, regardless of whether they are paying close attention to the news about the violence. 

Sixty-two percent of Americans believe the United States can win the war in Iraq, down from 69% in December immediately after the Iraqi elections. The current numbers are about the same as in last September, when opposition to the war was at its highest point. Forty-four percent of Americans currently believe the United States will win the war, down from 49% in December. 

Americans are defeat averse, and those 62% need to hold someone accountable. And the WaPo poll agrees with the overall view:

An overwhelming majority of the public believe fighting between Sunni and Shiite Muslims in Iraq will lead to civil war and half say the U.S. should begin withdrawing its forces from that violence-torn country, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The survey found that 80 percent believed that recent sectarian violence made civil war in Iraq likely, and more than a third said such a conflict was "very likely" to occur. Expectations for an all-out sectarian war in Iraq extended beyond party lines. More than seven in 10 Republicans and eight in 10 Democrats and political independents believe civil war was likely.

n the face of the continuing violence, fully half--52 percent--of those surveyed said the United States should begin withdrawing forces. But only one in six favored immediate withdrawal of all troops from Iraq.

...

The poll found that 56 percent also say the United States is not making significant progress toward restoring civil order in Iraq while 43 percent believe that stability is being reestablished--a 17-point drop in optimism since December and the most pessimistic reading on this question since it was first asked in June, 2004.

And the country is split down the middle over whether the United States is moving ahead toward establishing a democratic government in that violence-torn country. Nearly half--49 percent--say the U.S. is making progress on the political front, down from 65 percent four months ago. And just as many--48 percent--say the U.S. and its allies are failing to make progress here, either.

The academic question of low level civil war vs nascent civil war vs about to be civil war is moot. Americans are losing faith in the Bush administration's ability to do the job, which is create a democratic government in iraq (not topple Saddam). And it is the Bush Administration that will be held accountable, despite all the attempts to come to blame 'who lost Iraq' on war non-supporters.

First, the reality has to be dealt with, as events on the ground will blow away any smoke and mirrors the WH tries to hide behind. They got us there; they don't know how to get us out. Republicans started this war, and it will be Republicans that lose it. It will, alas, be Americans and the world that suffer because of it, but when your goal is to get elected (not govern), that's what happens. And lest any think that's a harsh, partisan thing to say, go back to 2002 and rember how we got here... and get over it.

Comments

[DemFromCT]

I firmly believe Iraq, the war of bad choice, is Bush's legacy, though Katrina and this summary from Krugman contribute:

President Bush's main purpose in visiting India seems to have been to promote nuclear proliferation. But he also had some kind words for outsourcing. And those words help explain something that I know deeply puzzles the administration's political gurus: Mr. Bush's dismal polling on economic issues.

Now the American economy isn't doing as well as Bush partisans think it is. In fact, since the end of the 2001 recession, the recovery in jobs, output and especially wages has been unusually weak by historical standards. Still, the economy is expanding, so it's impressive just how large a majority of Americans disapproves of Mr. Bush's economic management.

Why doesn't Mr. Bush get any economic respect? I think it's because most Americans sense, correctly, that he doesn't care about people like them.

This fella Bush is just not up to the job.

[Mimikatz]

I daresay it is not jsut that Bush (and most of the elites) don't care about "people like them", they are scarcely aware of them.

This economy, more than any I can remember, is very uneven. For the top 5%, things are really pretty good, the stock market is high, there are good profits and economic growth. But for the rest, it is uncertainty, anxiety, not a lot of optimism. One job loss or bad health problem from disaster. There was a telling article in the SF Chronicle this morning about how student loan cuts are freaking out parents and kids. Bush tried to defend them, but here was the "other side":

"Democrats said the money should have been used to lower interest rates and increase Pell Grants instead of being diverted to the federal Treasury. Student groups claimed the changes were mostly aimed at paying for $70 billion in tax cuts.

"'Some people will describe it as paying down the deficit,' said Luke Swarthout, a higher education associate for the Public Interest Research Group. 'If you look at how the reconciliation process started, it becomes clear this is, in fact, a down payment on a series of tax cuts.'"

Just one more example. By fall they will have made their first tuition payments and will be looking at the second.

[Tim from IntoxiNation]

The war in Iraq is goint to go for years yet, all this talk of troop withdrawls next year is a load of crap. the next thing is going to be the muslim millitants going on about a new Holy War, as Tony Blair openly spoke about on TV this weekend how he looked to God when he was deciding whether to go to war or not... and there was me thinking it was false intellegence. Muslim leaders are already shouting about this, all we need now is some more terrorist attacks here in London stating the cause of Islam and the fight against Blair and his God!
Don't forget we had the Northern Ireland conflict over here, it will take either the extremists of Bush to say 'No More' and to put their weapons down and move on... somehow I can not see Bush doing that!

[Meteor Blades]

Student loans/student debt ought - once again - to be an issue seized upon by the Democrats to pound the GOP. The average student's loan debt upon graduation has gone up 50% in a decade. Come July 1, low-interest loans are going out the window, which could add tens of thousands of dollars to the long-term costs of a university degree.

Stafford Loans, the bulk of federal student loans, will go from the current 4.75%-5.38% to a fixed 6.8% Money parents borrow for their children for college will rise from 6.1% to 8.5%.

The new interest rates will result in payments that are 20% higher than the 2004-2005 rates, doubling the total interest paid over the life of the loan, according to the Project on Student Debt.

"It's very worrisome to our kids. They come out of [undergraduate] school with $30,000 or $40,000 in debt, and then they marry someone with $30,000 or $40,000 in debt," said Karen Foley, president of Scholarship Chicago, a nonprofit organization that helps arrange financial aid for low-income students.

"Debt can be character-forming, but we don't want it to be so crushing that they then conclude they can't go to graduate school or that they can't get into a particular profession because most of their money goes to repay debt instead of going into a savings plan," Foley said.

Luke Swarthout of Public Interest Research Group in Washington said the combination of rising tuition and higher interest rates had led to "an increasingly worrisome picture for students," one that affects career and personal decisions.

"College is about opening doors to our nation's young people," he said. "Excessive student loan debt has the effect of closing those same doors by limiting the choices students can make."

In the "knowledge economy," education is more essential than ever, and our misleaders are making it tougher than ever to obtain for all but the most affluent. Another example of the struggle that dare not speak its name: class warfare.

[DemFromCT]

E&P notes the poll numbers and the lack of editorials against the current bush plicies in iraq.

and Foreign Affairs talkes the prez to task over his ill advised policy. iraqization, and strengthening the Shiite/Kurd army, just drives Sunni away.

[g]

" I think it's because most Americans sense, correctly, that he doesn't care about people like them."

Ah, shucks. At least we'll be getting mangoes from India out of the deal there.

"“Mr. Prime Minister, the United States is looking forward to eating Indian mangoes,” Bush said of a provision that will bring the country's [India] beloved fruit to the U.S. for the first time in nearly two decades."

Lucky us! Nukes for mangoes.

http://tinyurl.com/zxhw5

[Jane]

Hi ! Your site is very interesting. Thank you.