by DemFromCT
The weather vane spins. Retirements, up to a dozen, migth start showing up as the environment starts to look worse for Republicans. After having the taste of majority, and knowing full well what to expect if they become the minority, senior Republicans will have no taste for minority status.
This story is aboput a big fish, Rep. Bill Thomas R-22 CA, and Ways and Means chair. This is the fellow who was going to get Bush's Social Security gutting passed and made into law.
Representative Bill Thomas, a conservative Republican from California's Central Valley who has been a strong backer of President Bush's policies, announced today that he will not seek re-election this fall.
Mr. Thomas has been the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee since 2001 and would have had to give up the chairmanship in the next Congress because of term limits on leadership positions. He said he had weighed retirement for several weeks."Over the next nine months, I intend to continue to work hard and finish my Congressional term with the same vigor as my first," Mr. Thomas said in Bakersfield. "Challenges lie ahead, and I intend to work hard to tackle the problems caused by our outdated entitlement programs and our currently flawed income tax structure."
Mr. Thomas, 64, was first elected to Congress in 1978. His 22nd District, the southernmost district in the Central Valley, is heavily Republican, so his departure would not seem to offer Democrats much chance of picking up a seat. But it will deprive President Bush of a staunch supporter.
Look for more retirements over the months between now and November 2006. They may not be subsequent Dem pick-ups, but they do tell you what the R's are thinking.
This is a very significant retirement. Thomas is a maverick and a bit of a hothead, but he is one of those who really knows how to put big legislative packages together to try to solve real problems, even though we may not agree with his approach. He did the tax cut bills and the Medicare drug bill. Last summer he announced he was going to put together a package on tax reform and pension reform, maybe even fold health care in. It went no where, along with Bush's political capital.
Of course it may turn out he is implicated in some scandal, but it may also be that Thomas realizes that the nation's fiscal situation is such, and the political climate so polarized, that it will no longer be possible to pass the kind of bills he is interested in. This is really another harbinger of the demise of the conservative "governing" philosophy. Tazes can't be cut forever, Congress loves its pork too much, and the foreigners who are buying our debt won't do so forever.
So maybe this means that he realized that even if the GOP held onto the House, it just wouldn't be much fun anymore.
Posted by: Mimikatz | March 06, 2006 at 18:54
And on the thread over at Kos, alum Ron K. tosses out a question. Is he really going home? Thomas for Treasury?
He's hardly the kind of reliable team player the Bushies want, but he does know the tax cose better than anyone, and from his point of view it would provide a unique platform. But still . . . .
Posted by: Mimikatz | March 06, 2006 at 20:06
I meant "tax code."
And lookee here--the two most recent polls have the Dems leading the generic Congress ballot question by 14%, and one is a Fox poll.
Posted by: Mimikatz | March 06, 2006 at 20:21
today the Times said Dems would have to hold 2 & pick up 10 competitive races, plus 3 more (2 + 10 + 3) to control the House.
Make that 2 + 11 + 2, I guess!
They also said Democrats had no unified voice:
Guess what? Voters in Arizona don't care about exactly the same things as voters in Colorado. What works in Connecticut might not work in New Mexico.
This is what a national party looks like -- local races, local themes.
Posted by: emptypockets | March 06, 2006 at 20:21
CT in Nancy Johnson's district (my district) very much care about johnson's writing of and support for the medicare Part D bill.
Where is Arizona and NM again? Somewhere Sw of Hartford, right? And why should I care how the Dems run their races there if they win?
That Times article was remarkably stupid even for the Times.
Posted by: DemFromCT | March 06, 2006 at 20:29
yet pieces like that still heavily sway conventional wisdom... conventional, yes; wise, not so much.
Posted by: emptypockets | March 06, 2006 at 21:08
'pockets, if it sways cw, then the cw is sure going to have a few suprises hit it.
Posted by: DemFromCT | March 06, 2006 at 21:31
By November the GOP will have reinvented itself while the Dems still have their heads where the sun don't shine.
Posted by: CentralValleyGuy | March 06, 2006 at 22:54
Glad to see Thomas go, both because he was relatively able (to do bad things, usually!) and because he was extraordinarily arrogant.
Posted by: jonnybutter | March 07, 2006 at 00:03
There's no way that Bush would tolerate Bill Thomas at Treasury. He's much too crusty, angry, and independent, not to mention COMPETENT (within the limits of conservative ideology). He has been in many ways the White House's worst enemy -- an ideological ally, in a position of power, that they cannot control. Such people don't get high administration positions, 37-year-old party hacks who've proven their bona fides by writing press releases do.
Thomas retired because all he ever wanted to be was chair of Ways and Means and he is term-limited out of the chairmanship.
Posted by: Mark Schmitt | March 07, 2006 at 00:57
Mark, I think that's right. But he may not be the last of the retirees, all of whom will be older than 37.
Posted by: DemFromCT | March 07, 2006 at 01:02
Can we pick up Sherry Boehlert's district if he retires?
Posted by: texas dem | March 07, 2006 at 03:32
That would be NY-24. And a tough pick-up. According to the Political Almanac, Boehlert won 57%-34% and 71%-22% the last two general elections.
This is a rural R leaning district that went Bush 53-47% over Kerry.
Posted by: DemFromCT | March 07, 2006 at 08:20
Hi ! Your site is very interesting. Thank you.
Posted by: Damn | April 03, 2006 at 16:58