The Next Hurrah: Western Europe Catches Bird Flu

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February 17, 2006

Western Europe Catches Bird Flu

by DemFromCT

A significant thing happened this week. In addition to Nigeria (and with worries about neighboring Niger), European countries identified cases of H5N1 for the first time:

So far in Europe, the highly pathogenic form of the virus has been confirmed in Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Austria, Italy, Germany and the European part of Russia. Other countries still investigating possible outbreaks include Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia and Ukraine.

Interestingly, there are still questions about how it got to where it is. And we don't want to ignore Iraq, Iran, and especially Indonesia.

Indonesia's human cases of avian influenza are occurring with increasing frequency, prompting the government to step up monitoring efforts aimed at slowing the spread of the virus among animals.

Humans are contracting the deadly H5N1 strain of the virus at a faster pace, causing more deaths, Agriculture Minister Anton Apriantono told reporters in Jakarta before attending a cabinet meeting on bird flu, without elaborating.

``We will step up preventive efforts, be more proactive,'' Apriantono said. ``We will do checking even on areas that haven't seen any cases of dead poultry. Information dissemination about bird flu will be stepped up.''

Indonesia has the second-highest number of bird flu cases among humans in the world. The H5N1 virus has killed at least 18 people of the 25 people it has infected in the Southeast Asian nation. Health authorities say they are concerned the virus will mutate into a form easily transmitted among humans, causing a deadly global pandemic. The country's suspected sixth cluster of human infections, in two adults and their two-year-old daughter, has heightened concerns.

Anyone not understanding the concern we have raised about the spread of this virus around the world is going to get a lesson in reality over the next few months. H5N1 is a bird flu. It is not easily caught by humans; the proper term for it is a panzootic, a widespread epidemic amongst birds. Fears about bird flu spreading to humans are really fears about pandemic flu, or panflu, a different level of disease.

But the absence of a pandemic doesn't mean the absence of problems. The poultry industries in Europe, Asia and Africa are about to be severely stressed. Already, poultry imports from various affected areas are being limited, and the costs of culling domestic birds will run into the billions.

If H5N1 is suspected or confirmed in any EU country, authorities must immediately set up an inner protection zone, surrounded by a surveillance zone and an extra buffer zone.

The sizes of the protection and surveillance zones are the same for both wild birds and domestic poultry 1.9 miles for the inner zone 6.3 miles for the surveillance zone.

We know the costs would be far higher if the virus moves to humans.

A worst-case scenario bird flu pandemic could wipe US$4.4 trillion off global economic output and kill more than 140 million people, according to an Australian report on the macroeconomic fall-out of an influenza pandemic.

The Lowy Institute for International Policy report detailed four scenarios — mild, moderate, severe and ultra pandemics — using historical data on previous influenza pandemics and the economic fallout from the SARS crisis in Asia in 2003.

The report by the independent think tank said a pandemic would lead to a fall in the labor force across countries, an increase in the cost of doing business, a shift in consumer preferences away from exposed sectors and a re-evaluation of country risk.

But I mention that simply to not lose sight of the bigger picture. One need not invoke the human side of this to appreciate the depth of the problem. The Guardian has a nice summary of all the different places the virus has been spotted. The spread of the virus from China to beyond SE Asia has been through several mechanisms; one important vector is migratory birds (the German swans may have come from a colder than usual Russia), but the movement of poultry and smuggled birds is at least as important a vector, and could explain the 'skips' one sees on the world map.

We are not ready to handle a particularly bad seasonal flu, let alone panflu. So here's what you should know: we are half a year away from adequate vaccine production in the most optimistic scenario (and there are optimistic scenarios). Scientists, business leaders and government officials are concerned. Consider checking out your own individual plans in case of any sort of emergency (earthquake, winter storm, hurricane) or unexpected event crops up unexpectedly. Understand that we don't know everything we need to in order to properly predict or prevent a pandemic. And it may be that that last point will be made crystal clear - the hard way.

February 17, 2006 at 07:21 in Contributor--DemFromCT, Health Policy | Permalink

Comments

Thanks, as always. These posts don;t draw a lot of comments because there is little for most of us to add, but they are very important.

Posted by: Mimikatz | February 17, 2006 at 11:59

public service...

Posted by: DemFromCT | February 17, 2006 at 12:04

And the bird flu that humans do get is from handling birds with that type flu. In many countries, there are flocks roaming in villages and communities, children and adults handling them. They can almost be considered eggs, meat and sometimes pets (handled as pets). Hand washing is most important (that is if your village has water).
Most of peoples in 'the west' wouldn't even begin to think about petting a chicken or handling one unless it comes from the supermarket.

Posted by: Beverly Cochrane | February 17, 2006 at 21:35

Hi ! Your site is very interesting. Thank you.

Posted by: Neo | March 15, 2006 at 22:23