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February 08, 2006


emptywheel --

Thanks for keeping us up-to-date on this. I doubt this site is news to you, but on the offchance that it is, there's the link. It's the IAEA page on Iran--links to PDFs of IAEA Board of Governors reports, resolutions, etc.

Excellent work, very readable, well worth a crosspost. People need to be reminded that this 'new' Iran intelligence is not new.

"Drawings of the unbuilt test site" -- just six little words. Are we to believe them? Sometimes a hold in the ground is just a hole in the ground.

Your post clarified for me that politically, this is a great issue for Democrats going into midterms wrt Foregin Policy. We have to go after the WH on domestic spying, and we will gain some on that, but the threat of another 9/11 makes Iran's WMD capability a much better issue. (IMO this is why Rove has been so careful to narrow the GOP language to "nuclear." I want Dems to start saying, "nuclear is one form of WMD and we've heard these WMD scare tactics before." This allows Dems to review Plamegate, pre-war (occupation) intelligence and the fact that Dick was wrong, wrong, wrong. We were not "greeted as liberators" in Iraq.
OfT: Someone at FDL commented that WH never "declared War," on Iraq. Congress "authorized force." Comment made sense to me, given how often WH says "we're at war," but no one else is picking up on it, so I guess the legal scholars figure this is not fertile ground.
Thanks again for all you do.

Am I hallucinating? Wasn't there an alleged laptop in 2002 as well?


I think this laptop has only been around since 2004, since just after the Iranians tested their latest update to teh Shahab-3 and just before the IAEA was meeting to decide what to do about Iran.

yes, indeed.

now put this together with fleitz's purge of state department career wapons experts and what do you have?

would you believe

getting rid of intelligence experts who might be able to challenge "fixed", fake, false intelligence earl;y on?

thus, clearing the way for another round of specious intel to justify some action or another by the u.s. against iran.

as with iraq in 2002, the nuclear "issue" is the official rationale with which the radical foreign policy operatives cheney leads can mount an attack of one kind or another against iran (for motives and goals that have nothing to do directly with nuclear danger).

the stolen-computer intel "fixing" is, indeed, just a repetition of the niger forgeries that justified false claims of iraqui nuclear capability.

someone approaches a foreign intellignece agency (germany here, france/britain in the iraq case) with info of interest to the americans (a stolen computer here, forged "nigerian" documents in the iraq case).

this intel "find" is of questionable provenace,

but, guess what,

high-level american officials begin gossiping about it.

do i really need to add, that this gossip originates in v.p. cheney's office?

now you might ask

why would american officials be so interested in questionable intel that they would talk about it publicly, especially after the embarrassment of the niger uranium/iraq nuclear lies?

why were some american officials, especially some in the vice president's office, interested in the niger forgeries, transparent as they were?

creating false grounds for u.s. foreign policy actions is simply a means which the end result will justify.


so long as the republicans control congress and karl rove controls the congressional republicans, there will be no penalty for lying about intelligence.

there has been no penalty, other than embarrassment, for the niger deceptions which formed the foundation of bush's justification for invading iraq.

Perhaps that Shahab-3 expanded nosecone WAS intended for a nuke, but it was of the same origin as the Merlin leak - complete with errors in it that would make it unusable for its alleged purpose.


Could be.

But I thought Merlin was a bomb, not a missile?

The only thing missing is an intercepted recording in Farsi of two military officiers discussing the enrichment of uranium. (deja vu). But who gets to play the role of Colin Powell this time???

the 'good' news at least is that the intelligence services have stepped up the level of sophistication from a dodgy paper forgery to something that might actually resemble some nuclear plans. they've come a long way in five short years.

Here are the known facts about Iran's nuclear program:

1- Iran has a legitimate economic case for nuclear power, which the US (including some of the members of the current Bush administration) encouraged. (see http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A3983-2005Mar26.html and http://www.atimes.com/atimes/ Middle_East/GH24Ak02.html)

2- Iran's enrichment program was not clandestine, and was widely reported in the nuclear industry literature & on Iranian radio. Iran's deals with countries like CHina to make the necessary plants had been reported to the IAEA, and the IAEA had even visited Iran's uranium mines in 1992. (See Le
Monde Diplomatique: "Iran Needs Nuclear Energy, Not Weapons" November 2005)

3- While there were undeclared facilities in Iran, the IAEA reported in Nov 2003 that "to date, there is no evidence that the previously undeclared nuclear material and activities referred to above were related to a nuclear weapons program."

4- In Nov 2004, the IAEA reported that "all the declared nuclear material in Iran has been accounted for, and therefore such material is not diverted to prohibited activities."

5- In Jan 2006, the IAEA reported that "Iran has continued to facilitate access under its Safeguards Agreement as requested by the Agency . . . including by providing in a timely manner the requisite declarations and access to locations."

6- Repeated offers of compromise by Iran that would have addressed the risk of proliferation of nukes were simply dismissed without any consideration. Most recently, Iran's Jan 2006 offer to continue the suspension of enrichment for another 2 years of additional negotiations were summarily dismissed, and not even reported in the US press though it
was reported in the Iranian press (see
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HB07Ak01.html )

Oh yeah, there's also a "magic laptop" which has literally fallen out of the blue sky, and conveniently provides all the evidence of a nuclear weapons program in Iran that no one else has found after 3 years of inspections.

So, there we have it. Draw your own conclusions.


very interesting.

it's this type of info that makes web logs so valuable for disseminating information.

thank you.

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