The Next Hurrah: Flu Stories

« The Incredible Story of Mahdi Obeidi, Conclusion | Main | Katrina Aftermath »

February 27, 2006

Flu Stories - Economics

by DemFromCT

As far as the impartial marketplace is concerned, the European experience with H5N1 in fowl and poultry means it's already being felt in the US without a single case being recorded:

Avian influenza is putting a fright into consumers around the globe, with consequences now being felt in the vast U.S. poultry industry. Prices are under pressure, particularly for leg quarters and other dark-meat chicken cuts, as demand begins to flag overseas.

Much of the worry focuses on the virus spreading from human to human, touching off a dreaded pandemic. But, so far, the disease has spread solely from bird to bird and from bird to human, with the biggest impact on the world's producers of chickens and turkeys.

At least 92 people have died, and the marketplace is feeling the pain as shoppers from Austria to India begin steering clear of this cheap and abundant meat.

"The real concern is that it is spreading," said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa. "We have not been able to put the fire out yet, and to think we can sit here isolated, you would have to be naive."

For export nations such as the United States, which typically ships about 14 percent of its poultry to overseas buyers, the latest scare comes at an inopportune time, coinciding with a period of increased production. While the white meat-dominated domestic market has held its own, dark cuts have started piling up.

Those not paying attention need to. A US recession because of dropping poultry prices is not out of the realm of possibility, though a sector effect is more likely. And that's a possibility even without sustained H2H, though obviously human cases would have an effect several orders of magnitude worse.

In any case, the next month or two are bound to bring unanticipted surprises, given what's already happened. Whatever your sense of what's probable or possible, there's a reason to watch what's happening in Europe.

[UPDATE]: excellent summary of where we're at with bird flu by the reveres today at Effect Measure. I look forward to tomorrow's post.

February 27, 2006 at 07:50 in Contributor--DemFromCT, Economics, Health Policy | Permalink

Comments

Thanks for the link to Economic Scenarios dot com, looks like a very good site.

Posted by: John Casper | February 27, 2006 at 09:37

Hey DemfromCT,

Props to you guys over at FluWiki. I saw the CNN.com piece on the Wiki and Melanie, and it's great that this is getting a wider audience. Hope that more people come on by. You guys are doing a great job.

Posted by: viget | February 27, 2006 at 16:47

Interesting article from Laurie Garrett in Sunday's IHT.
"Unless we act now, bird flu may win"
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/26/opinion/edgarrett.php

Posted by: notthisnorthat | February 27, 2006 at 17:49

Here's a link to a talk on the Avian flu at the Woodrow Wilson Center. Click the Audio -Video link to a right of the article. It's Windows Media Player

Calmly presents very spooky scenerio, boy, we are so not ready folks.

Video: Emerging Pandemic: Costs and Consequences of an Avian Influenza Outbreak
Dr. Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy; Helen Branswell, Medical Writer, Canadian Press

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?topic_id=116811&fuseaction=topics.event_summary&event_id=142787#

Posted by: Gentleman Jim | February 27, 2006 at 18:27

Thanks, folks. Click the multimedia link on Flu Wiki for much much more.we're getting 5 times the usual traffic these past 2 days (and folks are staying 4.5 minutes to read).

Posted by: DemFromCT | February 27, 2006 at 19:30

poker reward -
poker rewards -
poker room la -
poker rooms la -
poker show -
poker show casino -
poker shows -
poker time -
poker time casino -
poker times -
refer back -
refer backs -
reward parking -
rewards parking -
river belle -
river belle casino -
river belle poker -
river belle poker casino -
river belles -
river belles casino -
river belles poker -
royal plaza -
royal plaza casino -
royal plazas casino -
royals vegas -
royal vegas -
royal vegas casino -
royal vegas poker -
royal vegas poker casino -
seven sultan -
seven sultan casino -
seven sultan poker -
seven sultans -
seven sultans casino -
seven sultans poker -
showdown casino -
showdowns casino -
silver dollar -
silver dollar casino -
silver dollars -
strike it lucky -
strike it lucky casino -
sunny diamond -
sunny diamonds -
sun vegas -
sun vegas casino -
super slot -
super slot bingo -
super slots -
super slots bingo -
super slots bingo casino -
super slots casino -
the gaming club -
titan poker -
titan poker casino -
titans poker -
vegas 7 -
vegas 7 casino -
vegas affiliate -
vegas affiliates -
vegas country -
vegas country casino -
vegas joker -
vegas joker casino -
vegas jokers -
vegas jokers casino -
vegas palm -
vegas palms -
vegas palms casino -
vegas partner -
vegas partner lounge -
vegas partners -
vegas red -
vegas red casino -
vegas reds -
vegas seven -
vegas seven casino -
vegas slot -
vegas slot casino -
vegas slots -
vegas slots casino -
vegas tower -
vegas towers -
vegas towers casino -
vegas villa -
vegas villa casino -
vegas villas -
virtual city -
virtual city casino -
virtual city poker -
virtual city poker casino -
virtual citys -
virtual citys casino -
virtual citys poker -
yukon gold -
yukon gold casino -
yukon golds -
yukon golds casino -
zodiac casino -
zodiacs casino -
32 vegas -
32 vegas casino -
3 diamond casino -
3 diamonds -
3 diamonds casino -
49 er -
49er casino -
49ers casino -
50 star -
50 stars -
50 stars casino -
888 -
888 casino -
ace club -
ace club casino -
ace clubs -
amber coast -
amber coast casino -
amber coasts -
amber coasts casino -
bingo knight -
bingo knights -
bingo knights casino -
black pools uk -
black pool uk -
black widow -
black widow casino -
black widows -
black widows casino -
cabaret club -
cabaret club casino -
cabaret clubs -
cabaret clubs casino -
caribbean sun poker -
caribbean sun poker casino -
caribbean suns poker -
carnival casino -
carnivals casino -
car sand -
car sands -
car sands casino -
casino france net -
casino frances net -
casino king -
casino kings -
casino las vegas -
casino onliner -
casino onliners -
casino profit share -
casino profit shares -
cd casino -
cd poker -
challenge casino -
challenges casino -
cirrus casino -
cirrus casinos -
club dice -
club dice casino -
club dice poker -
club dices -
club dices casino -
club dices poker -
club player -
club player casino -
club players -
club players casino -
cool cat -
cool cat casino -
cool cats -
cool cats casino -
cote dazur palace -
cote dazur palace casino -
cote dazur palaces -
cs casino -
cs casinos -
diamond club -
diamond club casino -
diamond club poker -
diamond club poker casino -
diamond clubs -
diamond clubs casino -
diamond clubs poker -
empire poker -
empire poker casino -
empire pokers -
empires poker -
enter casino -
enter casinos -
euro grand -
euro grand casino -
euro grands -
fair poker -
fair poker casino -
fairs poker -
fast win -
fast win casino -
fast wins -
fast wins casino -
fifty stars -
fifty stars casino -
gambling wage -
gambling wages -
geisha lounge -
geisha lounge casino -
geisha lounges -
gl casino -
golden reef -
golden reef casino -
golden reefs -
golden reefs casino -
golden riviera -
golden riviera casino -
golden riviera poker -
golden riviera poker casino -
golden rivieras -
golden rivieras casino -
golden rivieras poker -
gold key -
gold key casino -
gold keys -
gold keys casino -
grand ace -
grand ace casino -
grand aces -
grand aces casino -
grand bank -
grand bank casino -
grand banks -
grand banks casino -
i big -
ibig casino -
ibigs casino -
i play tournament -
i play tournaments -
jackpot in a flash -
jackpots in a flash -
jackpots in a flash casino -
joyland casino -
joylands casino -
king solomon -
king solomon casino -
king solomons -
king solomons casino -
kiwi bingo -
kiwi bingo casino -
kiwi casino -
kiwi casino poker -
kiwis bingo -
kiwis casino -
luck and roll -
luck and roll casino -
luck n roll -
luck n roll casino -
mad bingo -
mad bingo casino -
mad bingos -
magic box -
magic box casino -
magic boxs -
magic boxs casino -
magic oasis -
magic oasis casino -
miami paradise -
miami paradise casino -
miami paradises -
miami paradises casino -
miss bingo -
miss bingo casino -
miss bingos -
mummy gold -
mummys gold -
mummys gold casino -
mummys golds -
music hall -
music hall casino -
music halls casino -
new york casino -
new yorks casino -
noble poker -
noble poker casino -
nobles poker -
nostalgia casino -
nostalgia casinos -
nostalgias casinos -
omni casino -
omnis casino -
palace of chance -
palace of chance casino -
palace of chances -
palace of chances casino -
party casino -
party casinos -
party gammon -
party gammon casino -
party gammons -
party poker -
party poker casino -
party pokers -
partys casino -
partys poker -
peach casino -
peachs casino -
pigg casino -
pigg peak -
piggs casino -
piggs peak -
piggs peak casino -
piggs peaks -
planet luck -
planet luck casino -
planet lucks -
play gate -
play gate casino -
play gate poker -
play gate poker casino -
play gates -
play gates casino -
play gates poker -
poker 333 -
poker 333 casino -
poker metro -
poker metro casino -
poker metros -
poke round -
poke round casino -
poker round -
prestige bingo -
prestige casino -
prestige poker -
prestiges bingo -
prestiges casino -
prestiges poker -
rich webmaster -
rich webmasters -
river nile -
river nile casino -
river niles -
river niles casino -
ruby bingo -
ruby bingo casino -
ruby bingo casino uk -
ruby bingo uk -
ruby fortune -
ruby fortune casino -
ruby fortunes -
rubys bingo -
rubys bingo uk -
sands of the caribbean -
sands of the caribbean casino -
s casino -
slot alley -
slot royale -
slots alley -
slots alley casino -
slots alleys -
slots alleys casino -
slots royale -
slots royale casino -
slots royales -
spass kasino -
spin palace -
spin palace casino -
spin palace poker -
spin palace poker casino -
spin palaces -
spin palaces poker -
sport interaction -
sports interaction -
star luck -
star luck casino -
star lucks -
star lucks casino -
sterling house casino uk -
sterling houses casino -
sterling house uk -
sun poker -
sun poker casino -
suns poker -
swiss casino -
the sand -
the sand of caribbean -
the sands -
the sands casino -
the sands of caribbean -
three diamonds -
three diamonds casino -
tiki bingo -
tiki bingos -
tikis bingo -
uk casino club -
uk casino clubs -
uk casinos club -
usa casino -
wager junction -
wager junctions -
window casino -
windows casino -
you bingo -
you bingo casino -
you bingos -
action gold -
action poker -
action pokers -
actions poker -
affiliate lounge -
affiliate lounges -
all jackpot -
all jackpots -
all jackpots casino -
all slot -
all slots -
all slots casino -
all star affiliate -
all star affiliates -
apues tas -
aus vegas -
aus vegas casino -
bellas vegas -
bella vegas -
bella vegas casino -
bet 19 -
bet bet -
bet casino -
bet casinos -
bet euro -
bet euros -
bet game day -
bet game days -
bet holdem -
bet holdem casino -
bet holdems -
bet on game -
bet on games -
bet on race -
bet on races -
bets son -
bet wwts -
big bettys -
big bettys bingo -
bing fantasy casino -
bingo 777 -
bingo 777 casino -
bingo cafe -
bingo cafes -
bingo fantasy -
bingo for money -
bingo hall -
bingo hall casino -
bingo halls -
bingo liner -
bingo liners -
bingo palace -
bingo palaces -
bingo reward -
bingo rewards -
bingos 777 -
bingos cafe -
bingos for money -
bingos liner -
bingos reward -
black pool bingo -
black pools bingo -
break away -
break away casino -
break aways -
break aways casino -
bright right -
cash wave -
cash waves -
casino domain -
casino domains -
casino euro -
casino euros -
casino lucky dog -
casino lucky dogs -
casino pay check -
casino pay checks -
casino verano -
casino veranos -
casino webcam -
casino webcams -
cherry casino -
cherrys casino -
city club -
city club casino -
city clubs casino -
cyber sportsbook -
diamond gal -
diamond gal casino -
diamond gals -
dimaond gals casino -
earn united -
fair deal sport -
fair deal sports -
first web casino -
first webs casino -
five card charlie -
five card charlies -
five cards charlie -
fortune junction -
fortune junction casino -
fortune junctions -
geisha bingo -
geisha bingos -
geishas bingo -
giant vegas -
giant vegas casino -
go casino -
go casinos -
gold betting -
good as gold casino -
grand bay -
grand bay casino -
grand bay poker -
grand bay poker casino -
grand bays -
grand bays poker -
grand casino royale -
grand casino royales -
grand riviera -
grand riviera casino -
grand rivieras -
hampton casino -
hamptons casino -
hotel casino network -
hotel casinos network -
internet bingo -
internet bingo casino -
internet bingos -
jackpot factory -
jackpot factory casino -
jackpot joy -
jackpot joy casino -
jackpot joys -
jackpots factory -
jackpot wheel -
jackpot wheel casino -
jackpot wheels -
jet bingo -
jet bingos -
jets bingo -
jupiter club -
jupiter club casino -
jupiter clubs -
king neptune -
king neptune casino -
king neptunes -
king neptunes casino -
kiwi bingo casino uk -
kiwi bingo uk -
lady dream -
lady dream casino -
lady dreams -
lake palace -
lake palaces -
mahjong time -
mahjong times -
merlins magic -
merlins magic casino -
merlins magics -
oasis casino -
online vegas -
online vegas casino -
only bingo -
only bingo casino -
only bingos -
paradise affiliate -
paradise affiliates -
paradise poker -