The Next Hurrah

Six Stories

by emptywheel

Judy Miller says that only six of her stories were based on questionable reporting. I'll have to remember that. By my count, there are way more than six that are totally full of shit, just in her war reporting (and watch out, because I'm looking back at her famous aluminum tubes story--something to look forward to in 2006). But now I will always look at her stories and wonder whether she considers that particular story one of her flawed six.

"Is this one of the ones that even Judy believes to be beyond the pale? How does Judy Miller judge shit?"

But that's not why I'm interested in Judy's recent appearance on Nightline. I'm more interested in a puzzle Jane has raised about Judy's comments specific to the Plame Affair.

The Incredible Story of Mahdi Obeidi, Part Two

by emptywheel

Summary: The story of Mahdi Obeidi, the Iraqi scientist who turned over nuclear parts and blueprints that had been buried under his rose bush, includes a number of suspicious details. In the first post in this series, I examine the multiple versions that have been told and try to put together a clear timeline of his experience. In this post, I'll first make two points about Obeidi's experience: we know his treatment was virtually unique among Iraqi scientists, and we know the CIA misrepresented his story. Then I look at a number of curious details that raise doubts about the materials Obeidi turned over to the Americans. In future post(s), I will pose questions about about the credibility of the Obeidi reporting.

Before looking at what Obeidi turned over to the Americans though, I'd like to pose a few overarching questions about Obeidi's experience that, I believe, temper all the following questions I'll raise.

How Did Obeidi Manage to Arrange Asylum?

First, as far as we know, Obeidi is the only Iraqi scientist who received American asylum after undergoing questioning. Several scientists died, either in apparent accidents (like Khalid Ibrahim Said, who died in a checkpoint shooting) or as a result of what appears to be torture (like Mohammed Munim al-Izmerly, who was delivered to a Baghdad hospital in a body bag, having died as a result of a blow to the head). Others escaped Iraq before the Americans arrived, and live under the protection of these other governments (like Jaffar Dhai Jaffar, who exiled to the UAE). The vast majority--again, as far as we know--remained in American custody for the entire time of the occupation, at least until last week when a number of key scientists were released; and unlike Obeidi, these scientists did not receive asylum in the US.

Obeidi's (apparently) unique experience raises the question--how was he able to persuade the Americans to give his family protection? I'm confident the involvement of David Albright was an important part. Albright, by his own accounting, alerted CNN to Obeidi's story, in response to poor treatment from the Americans. And throughout the time Obeidi stayed in the safe house in Kuwait, he had access to a satellite phone.

But the publicity Obeidi was able to mobilize to ensure his safety only begins to explain his treatment. We know, for example, that the CIA analyst "Joe" accused Obeidi of lying throughout the summer. What convinced the Americans to back off of these accusations and let Obeidi go?

The Next Open Thread

by DemFromCT

Continuing our lesiurely approach to the New Year, here's an open thread to talk about anything you want... Abramoff, the unpopular Pesident, whatever.

As part of an ambitious strategy the White House has mapped out for the next four weeks, Mr. Bush has scheduled two major speeches - one on the economy on Friday in Chicago, another on Iraq - ahead of the State of the Union address, which is tentatively scheduled for Jan. 31. By the time he appears before Congress, Mr. Bush's aides are hoping, two of the immediate challenges the president faces - the Supreme Court confirmation hearings of Judge Samuel A. Alito Jr. and the permanent renewal of the Patriot Act - will be behind him.

Uh-huh. He's got so much political capital left, he's unstoppable. Still, just because Bush plants stories in the paper doesn't mean they're true.

But the deficit may be only one of the gathering clouds in his dealings with a Republican Congress that has been uncommonly unruly in recent months. Though Mr. Bush made no mention of the subject in his radio address, some of his advisers and national security officials say the White House has decided in the past two weeks to take a hard line with Congressional inquiries into Mr. Bush's secret authorization of wiretaps without warrants on suspects within the United States.

What's needed is an adversarial, skeptical approach from the media. More fact-checking, less stenography. Don't hold your breath, though.

And have a happy and safe New Year.

Apparently We Need to Drive a Wooden Stake Through His Heart

By DHinMI

The reports of his political death appear to have been greatly exaggerated:

Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Chalabi has assumed direct control of the powerful oil ministry as crude exports ground to a halt due to sabotage attacks and logistics problems, officials said on Friday.

Chalabi, who has been improving his relations with Washington after falling out with the U.S. administration, was appointed acting oil minister after the incumbent Ibrahim Bahr al-Uloum was given leave, the officials said.

Uloum told Reuters he was "intent on resigning". Aides to Chalabi confirmed that he had been appointed acting oil minister.

A ministry spokesman allied to Uloum said the country was facing what he called an impending oil supply crisis. "Production in the north, centre and south is about to suffocate," he said.

I don't know whether Chalabi's failure to win a parliamentary seat means he won't be able to stay in this position once the new parliament is seated.  But for a while at least, it means that Dick Cheney's favorite Iraqi is back at the nexus of official power in Iraq.  Of course this could have important implications for relations between the Iraqi government and the United States, as well as between the Iraqi government and the Western oil companies bidding on contracts to discover, extract or refine oil and repairing and protecting the country's production, storage and shipping infrastructure. 

But since Chalabi has also drawn a lot of attention for his overtures to and dalliances with the Iranians, something else popped into my mind.  This is from a recent U.S. Energy Information Administration report on oil production in Iraq:

In July 2005, Iran and Iraq signed an MOU on a swap agreement involving construction of a 24-mile, 350,000-bbl/d oil pipeline from Basra to the Abadan refinery in southwestern Iran. In exchange, Iran would ship refined products back to Iraq. In addition, Iran could allow Iraq to export crude through the Kharg Island terminal and to import refined products through the Iranian port of Bandar Mahshahr. One potential problem with this deal revolves around the ability of the Abadan refinery to process Basrah Light in significant volumes. Another is the fact that Iran already faces a severe shortfall in its own domestic gasoline supplies, making exports of gasoline problematic.

I can't read about closer integration of Iraqi and Iranian oil policy and not wonder if Ahmed Chalabi is behind it.  And I also can't help but think about the administration's rosy claims about Iraqi energy independence when I read about gas shortages in the country that supposedly has the second or third largest oil reserves in the world.

The Incredible Story of Mahdi Obeidi, Part One

by emptywheel

Summary: Mahdi Obeidi, the Iraqi nuclear scientist who dug up nuclear plans and prototypes from his rose garden, was one of the few successes of the post-war weapons hunt. But his story includes a number of suspicious details that suggest his story was every bit as manipulated as the rest of the WMD story. In this post, I use several versions to piece together what we know about Obeidi's experience after the war. In a future post, I will look more closely at some of the suspicious details.

On June 25, 2003--just as Congress was beginning to make a stink about prewar intelligence and the day before Tenet testified to Congress about why there were no WMDs in Iraq--the incredible story of Mahdi Obeidi broke in the US press. Administration officials hailed the story of a top Iraqi nuclear scientist who had buried a nuclear centrifuge and blueprints under his rose bushes to preserve them for the time when Saddam would reconstitute his nuclear program.

Yes, rose bushes.

The fact that this scientist had hidden his tools for preservation proved, Administration officials said, that Saddam was waiting for the time when he could restart his nuclear program. And the hidden materials meant the nuclear threat was dire, American officials said, because Saddam could jump start his program with minimal financial or temporal investment.

The story is as close as the Administration ever came to proving their claims that Saddam was trying to reconstitute his nuclear program.

But there are some funky things about Obeidi’s story. Or should I say stories.

The Next Open Thread

by DemFromCT

In this abbreviated inter-holiday week, let me just say, on behalf of all the contributors to this group blog, thank you for reading us, and have a happy and healthy New Year.

Krugman is great reading if you can get to see it. it's a long list:

A year ago, Mr. Bush hadn't yet openly reneged on Scott McClellan's 2003 pledge that "if anyone in this administration was involved" in the leaking of Valerie Plame's identity, that person "would no longer be in this administration." Of course, some suspect that Mr. Bush has always known who was involved.

A year ago, we didn't know that Mr. Bush was lying, or at least being deceptive, when he said at an April 2004 event promoting the Patriot Act that "a wiretap requires a court order. ...When we're talking about chasing down terrorists, we're talking about getting a court order before we do so. It's important for our fellow citizens to understand, when you think Patriot Act, constitutional guarantees are in place when it comes to doing what is necessary to protect our homeland, because we value the Constitution."

A year ago, most Americans thought Mr. Bush was honest.

A year ago, we didn't know for sure that almost all the politicians and pundits who thundered, during the Lewinsky affair, that even the president isn't above the law have changed their minds. But now we know when it comes to presidents who break the law, it's O.K. if you're a Republican.

This is an open thread. And Chris Mooney's Republican War On Science  is for the TNH bookclub Sunday.

They've Been Lying since 1991

by emptywheel

I just finished Scott Ritter's Iraq Confidential. And if Ritter is to be believed, the lies and deceptions that Bush used to get us into war extend much further, back to the end of the Gulf War and the beginning of the sanctions regime. The biggest reason not to believe Ritter is that he seems to be making the same argument as the Iraqis long made--that the inspections were a farce. But the vast majority of evidence discovered since "Mission Accomplished" supports his claims. As Seymour Hersh notes in the introduction, "The most important thing to know about Scott Ritter, the man, is that he was right."

You wouldn't know it, though, given the tepid reception of the book. Ritter's allegations are disturbing, a lot more disturbing than those made by Richard Clarke. But I've not read one review that describes what Ritter demonstrates. I think that's because Ritter states his main claim timidly. He says the inspection regime was not designed to succeed, that it was simply designed to pressure Saddam and lead to regime change.

But what Ritter shows is something different. He shows that the US (and I'll look at who within the US in a bit) actively undermined the inspections, peddled sloppy intelligence, spied on UN inspectors, and exposed other spies. Many of the appalling things Bush has done to prepare the way for an Iraq war are really just par for the course.

The Truth About The President's Standing

by DemFromCT

"Wow. He's UP to 43! What a popular guy! I guess he showed those pesky doubters what's what, huh!" Well, maybe not. As we close in on the end of the year, check out these two stories.

While the nightmare grows darker for all Republicans re Abramoff, Bush's abandons 'we're fine' as a motto. The gang that couldn't shoot straight still is in a very deep hole despite their cheerleaders in the press.

President Bush shifted his rhetoric on Iraq in recent weeks after an intense debate among advisers about how to pull out of his political free fall, with senior adviser Karl Rove urging a campaign-style attack on critics while younger aides pushed for more candor about setbacks in the war, according to Republican strategists.

The result was a hybrid of the two approaches as Bush lashed out at war opponents in Congress, then turned to a humbler assessment of events on the ground in Iraq that included admissions about how some of his expectations had been frustrated. The formula helped Bush regain his political footing as record-low poll numbers began to rebound. Now his team is rethinking its approach to his second term in hopes of salvaging it.

Helped regain his political footing? Not really (despite the WaPo's in-house numbers). As recent polling suggests, Bush is averaging about 43 still, which puts him out of free fall for the moment, but that's about it. His opposition continues to harder (those that dislike him really dislike him) and he has no chance of winning them back. His soft supporters will give him a bye for the holidays, then come back to a mess in Iraq that stubbornly refuses to follow the Bush script despite elections. Civil war is much more likely than reconciliation, and nothing in the news suggests otherwise.

Within a few days, though, the president shifted tone. Writing off 30 percent or more of the public as adamantly against the war, his advisers focused on winning back a similar-size group that had soured on Iraq but, they believed, wanted to be convinced victory was possible.

Don't expect the media to help you. With few exceptions, the didn't understand polling in 2004 and don't understand it now. They still call every one point jump in a different poll a 'comeback', and every two point drop in the same poll 'no change'. That 30 percent is not going to stay in Bush's camp.

There's likely no big story for the rest of the week, but watch the Abramoff piece unfold. It'll be the single most important scandal in 2005.

Executive Power at the Expense of the Legislature, Sure

by emptywheel

But Executive Power at the expense of the Judiciary? Not so much.

The Bush Administration proved yesterday that they just don't realize that antagonizing their allies may backfire. The Administration and Jose Padilla's lawyers both submitted filings to SCOTUS regarding the disposition of Padilla's case. And the Administration, having not realized that they got into this mess by pissing off the 4th Circuit and Michael Luttig, decided to stick to their bombastic ways.

But Solicitor General Paul D. Clement, in the administration's new filing today asking the Supreme Court to take up the custody issue, said the Fourth Circuit's decision "defies both law and logic," and he noted that Mr. Padilla himself had sought to be transferred to civilian custody.

In unusually caustic language, the solicitor general said that the Fourth Circuit did not have the authority to "disregard a presidential directive." And he said its decision blocking Mr. Padilla's transfer "is based on a mischaracterization of events and an unwarranted attack on the exercise of Executive discretion, and, if given effect, would raise profound separation-of-powers concerns."

What Are You Reading?

By DHinMI

If you're like me, the holidays are a time for getting caught up on some reading you've been neglecting or kept from, a time to get excited about new books you want to start, and often an opportunity to get books as gifts (or to buy with giftcards). 

For me, this holiday season has had an added facet, with me being reunited with some books and other reading material that's been spread between three locations over the last few months as I've been getting settled in a new city but still have most of my belongings in Michigan.

Regardless of where I am, typically I'm reading several different books simultaneously.  Let me give you a brief idea of some books on my reading agenda, and I hope you'll then share with me and everyone else what's on your reading list for the holidays and beyond.